Measuring Garrett Crochet's Trade Value: Complex Factors at Play for White Sox, Suitors

It's that time of year when we as Chicago White Sox fans are left trying to plan for the future, as is the case all too often. We go through daily mental gymnastics to figure out who will be part of this organization the next time the team is potentially good again. The fan base is often divided (a shocking revelation, I know) over these discussions. The daily debates regarding Player X and his standing with the club will only continue in the lead-up to the non-waiver trade deadline.

Garrett Crochet has found himself at or near the forefront of these discussions in recent days. ESPN's Jeff Passan recently elaborated on potential trade plans for all 30 teams (subscription required).

I'm not going to give away all the details of Passan's work, but he states the obvious that the White Sox will be sellers at the 2024 MLB trade deadline. He indicates that they are completely open for business and anyone on the roster is in play. That includes Crochet and Luis Robert Jr.

Hot Commodity

Garrett Crochet's trade prospects are rather interesting when you take a step back and look at things from a distance. He's been one of the best starters in baseball, minus a three-start stretch in late April/early May. On the season, he's pitched a career-high 69.2 innings and has a 3.49 ERA while ranking second in all of baseball with 93 strikeouts. His Baseball Savant page has tons of red on it, showing just how dominant he's been in his transition from reliever to starter.

White Sox fans have very little to complain about regarding Crochet's performance on the mound this year. He displays tremendous command of the strike zone, misses bats at an elite level, and allows mostly soft contact as evidenced by his .239 xwOBA (a measure of contact quality based on hitters' exit velocity and launch angle), which ranks in the top 2% of pitchers across the league.

So, would it make sense for the White Sox to trade a pitcher who's performed like an ace and is under contract through the 2026 season? The fan base has been conditioned to take the perpetual rebuild stance in recent years, and given where the team's at right now from an overall talent standpoint, the case can be made that moving any players on the active roster with a modicum of value makes sense. The notion that the White Sox won't be competitive before Crochet is slated to reach free agency is a viable one, but why wouldn't you want a pitcher of this caliber to be a building block?

Complex Variables

Garrett Crochet's situation presents one of the more interesting conundrums across baseball. He's 24 years old, pitching like an ace, and under control for another two full seasons. Because he's transitioning from the bullpen where he didn't accrue many saves, which get relievers paid in arbitration, Crochet's contractual obligations don't stand to hamper the team financially.

But because he hasn't had a starter's workload since joining the South Siders during the 2020 season, there's simply no way to accurately forecast how his arm will hold up as the season continues. Crochet has already survived Tommy John surgery, but given the reoccurrence rate in recent years, and particularly for a pitcher who's taking on a workload greater than he has been accustomed to, there's a tremendous level of risk involved.

I've been on record as saying that if the team's pitching hierarchy, Brian Bannister and Ethan Katz, believe Crochet can handle a starter's volume, they shouldn't be looking to deal him. Rather, they should be looking to have him be a foundational piece of the starting rotation moving into the future. If there's a level of skepticism that he can sustain his level of performance and availability while starting, the idea of trading Crochet becomes more realistic. We don't know where the organization is at with its belief in Crochet the starting pitcher, however.

We do know that to this point he's been one of the few bright spots in a dreadful season and has bounced back nicely from a brief downturn in the season's early weeks. Starting pitchers can go through dead-arm periods multiple times during a typical 32-start marathon, so is Crochet's performance guaranteed to stay at this level? Certainly not, but he's shown enough to continue taking the ball every fifth day, which is something I admittedly didn't believe in when this team reported to Glendale back in February.

Should He Stay or Go?

If the White Sox believe that Garrett Crochet isn't part of their rotation long-term, the prospect of trading him for future building blocks isn't a normal one.

Sox On Tap friend, Patrick Nolan, made what I believe is an astute observation a little less than a month ago on this topic.

A potential return for Crochet can't be measured in the way it would for other dominant starting pitchers because of the limited volume he's amassed in his career. With each passing inning, he adds to his already career-high total in this department. How many pitches he has left in his arm for 2024 is something that no one will be able to accurately determine, and thus his value to any acquiring team won't be as high.

I know many within the fan base believe the Sox will do very well at the deadline, but as I mentioned recently regarding Michael Kopech , I'm not sure a return for Crochet would be what the optimistic portion of the fan base thinks it would ultimately turn out to be. I agree with PNoles' concern regarding Crochet's workload and how it will impact his trade prospects.

Simply put, an acquiring team can't reasonably count on Crochet to take the ball every fifth day during August, September, and presumably October. So why would they give up top-level prospects to acquire him? If a true World Series contender were to inquire about Crochet with the idea of using him in a piggyback role during the season's stretch run, that would negatively impact a potential return for the Sox. Twenty-nine other general managers know that Crochet has never thrown more than 54.1 innings coming into the season, and their willingness to part with prospect capital will be influenced by it.

The uncertainty with Crochet's availability and effectiveness during the season's most pivotal months will undoubtedly impact his market as the trade deadline approaches. So, yes, I'm sure Chris Getz will have discussions concerning the southpaw's availability, but I just struggle to see a game-changing deal taking place because there's so much unknown surrounding him.

The Ultimate Question

The White Sox are in a tricky spot when it comes to Garrett Crochet. They must determine whether they believe he can start or not. If they believe he can, I don't think the idea of trading him makes sense. He's young, performing well, and not cost-prohibitive for an organization that always takes finances into account. If your pitching higher-ups think he's a starter, he's someone you build around and try to lock up long-term.

However, if doubt exists about his ability to maintain his performance and availability as a starter, I think fans could be disappointed in a return should he be traded before this year's deadline. This is a unique situation that we haven't seen in quite some time. The level of uncertainty surrounding Crochet is unlike anything I can recall. The future of the tall southpaw remains in flux and there's really no way to know how things will unfold. But I wouldn't be shocked at all if he was still wearing a White Sox uniform when the calendar flips to August.

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