3 Years, 2 Paths: An Inflection Point Between the Chicago White Sox and Houston Astros

The topic of the 2021 Chicago White Sox and the failed rebuild that began in 2016 has been an unfortunate but widespread discussion online recently. Wounds endured by fans have yet to scab over, and a buffet of blame to choose from exists. Your mileage may vary.

While White Sox fans rarely agree with each other, most would consider the 2021 American League Central division winners the peak of Rebuild 2.0. A moment that resonates with many is Tim Anderson's walk-off homer in the Field Of Dreams game against the New York Yankees. At the time, I viewed it as a pivotal moment that signified the South Siders' emergence as a true World Series contender.

However, things took an unexpected turn from that point. It wasn't an ascendence into championship contention but instead the beginning of the end of what could've been, marking a twist in the White Sox' narrative that no one saw coming.

A Silly Story

Many still circulate a narrative of the team's decline, attributing it to an early incident involving Yermin Mercedes. The idea that Tony La Russa reprimanded a player for hitting a homer while swinging through a 3-0 red light in a blowout with a position player on the mound, which some claim "ruined the vibe," is laughable.

Even more ridiculous is the simple Google search to access free information anytime from any device for free, which quickly debunks this narrative.

To be clear, I wasn't a fan of the manager throwing his player under the bus and apologizing to the Minnesota Twins.

Timing Is Everything

The 2021 White Sox went 18-10 following the infamous aforementioned incident. That stretch was part of a run during which the Pale Hose went 35-16 from April 20 to June 16 after a sluggish 8-9 start. Over that hot streak, they played 28-9 against teams that finished below .500 and 7-7 against teams with a winning record.

28-9 vs. teams to finish below .500

7-7 vs. teams to finish above .500

The South Siders took two of three against the 91-win Toronto Blue Jays, swept the lowly Detroit Tigers in three games on the road, and won two of three at home against the Tampa Bay Rays, who won 100 games. The final contest of that three-game set was a dramatic 8-7 walk-off win in the 10th inning that very temporarily gave the White Sox the best record in Major League Baseball.

Cracks in the Foundation

Needless to say, the fan base was riding high heading into a four-game road series against the juggernaut Houston Astros.

That series began almost precisely three years ago to the day of this week's series between the Astros and White Sox in Chicago. The Pale Hose went to Houston and were humbled as the Astros swept the four-game set. Only one contest, a 2-1 loss, was even close. They also lost this year's three-game series.

In retrospect, the White Sox' limitations were exposed in that series; they were a good team but not a great one. Worst of all, it was a sign of things to come in the playoffs.

The Inflection Point

The White Sox played to a good but not great 58-53 record the rest of the season and ran away with a weak AL Central division consisting of heavily injured teams. They built a 9.5-game lead after completing a three-game sweep of the Twins on Aug. 1, eventually winning the Central by 13 games .

The second half of the season was a slog as the club faced little competition in their division; they grew arrogant, had a losing record on the road, and didn't beat good teams enough while playing a sloppy brand of baseball.

One could attribute that to the team's manager, but I digress.

The White Sox and Astros took opposite paths throughout that campaign and the ensuing seasons. The South Side was a mere bump in the road for the Astros, who won the pennant in 2021 after annihilating the White Sox in the American League Division Series. Houston went on to win the World Series in 2022 against the Philadelphia Phillies while the White Sox missed the playoffs and languished around .500 all season.

Houston returned to the American League Championship Series in 2023, losing to the eventual champion Texas Rangers in seven games. The White Sox went 61-101, one of the worst records in franchise history, resulting in firings at the organization's top. Chicago deteriorated further in 2024, becoming the laughing stock of the sport. The Sox are en route to the worst record franchise and possibly baseball history.

The lost season marks the beginning of the White Sox' third rebuild in the last 10 years.

Related: White Sox Rebuild 2.0: What Could Have and Should Have Been

The Path Ahead

The Astros may be on the precipice of the end of a long streak of success that has resulted in two World Championships, three pennants, and six straight ALCS appearances. They currently reside in second place in the AL West, 10 games behind the first-place Seattle Mariners and tied with the Texas Rangers at 33-40. Houston recently jettisoned former White Sox legend Jose Abreu , who was in the second season of a three-year deal worth $58.5 million.

Nevertheless, the Astros have half a season to improve their situation. If not, they may be looking at a full-scale rebuild.

Chicago began restocking its minor league system last July, trading a mix of six starting pitchers and relievers to contenders in exchange for prospects. General manager Chris Getz executed two notable trades in the offseason and shipped Dylan Cease to San Diego in Spring Training. The same trend will continue at the trade deadline this season and likely into the offseason.

What's On Tap Next?

All this to say, circumstances can dramatically change in three years. The White Sox will trudge through the remainder of this lost season and continue with a youth movement on the South Side next season. They'll endure many growing pains and a lot of losses while vetting the players who can contribute to the next winning team.

Multiple draft classes, player development, and offseasons of trades and free agency make the potential of the 2026 White Sox unclear. Chicago's front office will have ample opportunities until then to position the franchise for better success.

Last year's 101-loss team, this year's franchise-worst team, and next year's likely American League-worst team offer little hope. The White Sox seem like a rudderless ship, and that very well could be the case.

However, we couldn't have imagined the franchise being in such disarray three years ago, and it isn't easy to imagine a contender in three years. But as history shows with Houston, life at the top doesn't last forever. And the same can be said about life at the bottom for the White Sox.

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