Nick Saban has a theory on why young QBs bust at such a high rate and the NFL needs to listen before it's too late

Former Alabama Crimson Tide head coach Nick Saban, arguably the greatest college football coach of all time, has a theory on why young quarterbacks bust in the NFL at such a high rate.

Saban made a cameo in the first episode of "Hard Knocks: Training Camp with the Chicago Bears" and he explained to Bears head coach Matt Eberflus (who played under Saban at Toledo) that the lofty expectations placed on young quarterbacks are the primary reason for the high failure rate.

"Here’s my theory on why NFL quarterbacks fail at such a dramatic rate,” said Saban. “To me, expectations are a killer. This kid (Caleb Williams) you got, this kid’s got so much media, so much hype, so much expectation on doing well. And he has to develop so quickly to meet the expectations that everybody has for him, it’s almost impossible.

“And I think that’s the biggest thing you’ve got to worry about with your quarterback. Because the expectations are a killer, but yet, to use your word, development is the key for him. You know, Peyton Manning threw 28 interceptions when he was a rookie. It’s the most in the history of ball. But it didn’t affect him. Just like the scoreboard. The scoreboard doesn’t mean anything until the game is over."

"Human nature is to be average," continued Saban. "It’s to survive. It’s not to win a championship. It’s not to be the best you can be. It’s none of those things. And we think as coaches that just because a guy is a good athlete that he wants all of that. Now every now and then you get a guy who’s got all the right stuff, who is a great leader, who does everything right…but there’s not many guys like that. You gotta make them that way."

It's a simple but brilliant take from Saban. And I think he's absolutely right.

Young quarterbacks almost have to be a future Hall of Fame talent to not be considered a bust in the NFL. These quarterbacks are drafted and the clock on a potential contract extension begins almost immediately. By the end of year two or year three, which is really when a young quarterback should first be thrust into a starting role, teams are expected to make a decision on whether or not that quarterback is a franchise player that's worth paying over $50 million a year (or whatever that number keeps climbing to).

It's a completely absurd approach to development and roster construction. And it's not sustainable (but you gotta credit some of these NFL front offices...they somehow find a way to do some salary cap gymnastics to keep pushing the cap hits down the road).

Everyone is seemingly looking for the next Patrick Mahomes or Joe Burrow when they should really just be looking for a quarterback that could potentially develop into that type of talent over a period of several years. If a Mahomes or Burrow falls to a team, then great. You have you guy for the next 10 to 15 years. But searching for that guy is a fool's errand. There just isn't one in every draft. Teams, however, are making decisions as if there are four or five of those guys in every draft.

The NFL would be much better off by going back to letting a young quarterback sit for a couple of years (they at least need to sit a year...even Mahomes did) before forcing a quarterback into a starting role. But because of the salary cap and the fact that teams so badly want to take advantage of rookie quarterback contracts, it seems unlikely we'll ever see the NFL go back to that approach (unless there are some major salary cap structure changes).

It's unfortunate, but it's the reality of the league right now. And it's putting young quarterbacks at a competitive disadvantage that some will never be able to overcome.

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