Ohio hasn't been a swing state for years. Could November change that?

In both 2016 and 2020, Trump won Ohio with an eight-point lead. Governor Mike DeWine won the 2022 gubernatorial election in a landslide victory with 62.8% of the vote. There's no question that Ohio hasn't been a swing state for at least the past decade. November's election might change that.

Referendums show Ohio voters are becoming less conservative

To see how Ohio's political landscape is changing, look no further than recent statewide referendums. In a state with approximately 300,000 less registered Democrats than registered Republicans, referendums promoting "liberal" ideas − such as the legalization of marijuana and the constitutional right to abortion − both passed with over 56% of support.

"Ballot issues from reproductive rights to the minimum wage show Ohio voters have a fairly liberal ideology. But, when you put candidates on the ballot, we've seen a strong learning toward Republicans," said University of Cincinnati's Dr. David Niven, an expert on American electoral politics. Niven attributes Republicans' success in Ohio to their ability to put forth "better known and better funded" candidates.

Both presidential campaigns know that extremely conservative stances on abortion and marijuana usage are becoming unpopular, even in "red" states. As Trump attempts to leave abortion off the ballot, making no mention of the subject in his border-focused Republican National Convention speech, Harris' campaign has leaned strongly into reproductive rights and attacked Trump for saying "I was able to kill Roe v. Wade."

With referendums that have mobilized Ohio's left, could Ohio's left-wing make significant electoral advantages this fall?

Polling data on Sherrod Brown suggests voters will be splitting tickets

"Over the last ten years, there have been 32 statewide races in Ohio pitting a Republican versus a Democrat. Democrats are 1-31. Sherrod Brown is the 1," said Niven.

Incumbent Senator Sherrod Brown has exceptional bipartisan appeal. He has to; without ticket-splitters, he would not win in Ohio. Brown has centered his campaign on workers' issues with broad bipartisan support, including curbing the opioid crisis and bringing manufacturing jobs to Ohio. The race between Brown and Bernie Moreno is close − Brown currently leads by five points in the most recent ActiVote poll − largely because Moreno has struggled to have the same working-class appeal, according to Niven.

"All things considered, the Republicans made Brown's life easier by choosing Bernie Moreno as their candidate − a fabulously wealthy car dealer with wage theft findings against him. Brown talks about the dignity of work. And with Moreno he can talk about the indignity of his riches," said Niven.

Ohio voters are moved to split their ticket because of unlikeable Republican candidates. This is cause for concern for the Trump campaign.

Trump campaign worried by private polling in Ohio

In the month since Ohio's own J.D. Vance was thrown into the national spotlight as Trump's VP pick, his resurfaced statements on "childless cat ladies" and other poor quips have caused 50% of voters to view Vance unfavorably, compared to only a 20% disapproval rating last November, according to YouGov. Having already angered a significant number of Ohio's Appalachians with his " Hillbilly Elegy" controversy , Trump really may have chosen a VP pick that will result in Republicans losing votes in the VP's home state.

The most recent public polls on Ohio still show Trump with a whopping 10-point lead . However, this Fabrizio, Lee & Associates poll is several weeks old and predates the wave of enthusiasm Harris has sparked among left-leaning voters. Recent private polls conducted by Republican pollsters show Trump receiving less than 50% of the vote against Harris in Ohio, according to insiders with "direct knowledge of the data" who spoke to The New York Times .

"Polls at this stage can give you an idea of the shape of the race," said Niven, who noted the importance of being "skeptical of motivated pollsters" and checking where polls come from.

If the internal polling is true, the softening of support for Trump in "safe" red states fare badly for the ex-president in battleground states. With Republicans already struggling to give Moreno an edge over Brown, any additional resources spent protecting Trump's Ohio majority is a resource not spent courting votes in battleground states.

Sherrod Brown's popularity and Vance's lack thereof will show on Nov. 5. Ohio may not be a swing state like Michigan or Wisconsin, but I predict voters will swing between parties at the ballot box. Brown will win, and Trump will win by a smaller margin than 2020 − that is, if the ever-erratic Trump can resist sabotaging his lead.

Meredith Perkins is an intern on the Opinion team at the Enquirer and currently attends Miami University in Oxford, Ohio, studying English and diplomacy. She is a native of Independence, Ky.

This article originally appeared on Cincinnati Enquirer: Ohio hasn't been a swing state for years. Could November change that?