The 6 most likely rookie undrafted free agents to make the Bengals' 53-man roster

For how large NFL rosters are, there aren't a ton of open spots for new players to make the team every year. Established veterans and fresh draft picks occupying well over 90% of the average projected 53-man roster for Week 1.

The Cincinnati Bengals are no different. The number of roster spots that are actually open for competition is closer to zero than it is to 10.

This is what makes life so tough for rookies that just went undrafted. These are the players with the least amount of job security and the most to prove. The positive impressions they make are unexpected, and usually aren't enough to force tough decisions made by the coaching staff.

But all hope isn't entirely lost, especially in Cincinnati. How many UDFAs could the Bengals realistically keep on the 53-man roster?

We've gone over every college free agent signing the Bengals made this year in our Bengals Roster Breakdown series , and only a couple of them have notable chances of making the initial roster. But what good is projection if we ignore past data in the process?

Head coach Zac Taylor has put together five rosters so far in his tenure. Twice has the initial 53 not included a single rookie UDFA, and there's only been one to make it in the same number of years. For consistency, we're counting the players who made the very first iteration of the 53-man roster that season.

Bengals UDFAs kept on initial 53-man roster from 2019-23

• 2019: 3 (QB Jake Dolegala, WR Damion Willis, OT O'Shea Dugas)
• 2020: 0
• 2021: 1 (ED Darius Hodge)
• 2022: 1 (CB Allan George)
• 2023: 0

2019 sticks out like a sore thumb due to how terrible the roster was during Taylor's first year. Dolegala earned the third-string quarterback role after an exciting preseason throwing to guys like Willis, who asserted himself as a starter with A.J. Green out for what would be the entire season. Dugas snuck on as the last offensive lineman in a porous group.

Since then, it's been extremely hard to make the team as an undrafted rookie. Both Hodge and George needed fantastic preseasons and injuries to occur ahead of them in order to slip through the cuts. Last year's team, which was a preseason favorite to win the Super Bowl, had no room for any UDFAs.

Five total in five years gives us an average of one expected UDFA to make a Zac Taylor-led Bengals team in a given year, small sample size be damned. That average will be put to the test this year with 14 long shots hoping to give it a slight boost. These are the six I personally attached a 20% or greater chance of making the initial roster.

Most likely UDFAs to make Bengals' 53-man roster

• P Austin McNamara : 50%
• RB Noah Cain : 30%
• RB Elijah Collins : 30%
• LB Maema Njongmeta : 25%
• LB Aaron Casey : 25%
• CB Lance Robinson : 20%

Starting from the bottom, Robinson is the only undrafted rookie in the cornerback room this year. The position usually goes six-deep, and with DJ Ivey still working back from a torn ACL and no veteran was added to replace Chidobe Awuzie, the door is slightly more open than it should be for Robinson to sneak in.

Casey and Njongmeta are both linebackers in a room where only four should feel comfortable about making the team. Shaka Heyward and Devin Harper are set to be their main competition, making it a clean four-player race for one or two spots.

Collins and Cain are in a similar boat at running back. They'll compete with Chris Evans for the fourth spot in the group with Trayveon Williams being fairly safe to make it through as a reserve.

Finally, McNamara has the path of least resistance and can be considered the most likely UDFA to be on the initial 53-man roster. Outperforming last year's sixth-round pick Brad Robbins, who had a forgettable rookie campaign at punter, is all McNamara needs to do to earn his spot.

If there's only one undrafted rookie on the team in September, McNamara is your best bet.

Related: Bengals Roster Breakdown: Austin McNamara can become Cincinnati's long-term answer at punter