2024 AFC North outlook: Why NFL's toughest division, and all four quarterbacks face crucial seasons

Welcome to the fourth installment of NFL Thursday Thoughts, an overview of a key topic heading into the season. We won't waste words with this intro. We'll let the numbers do the talking.

All four AFC North teams' Super Bowl odds are +4500 or shorter, the only division in the NFL that can claim that. The AFC North has two teams (Ravens, Bengals) among the five shortest odds, the only division that can claim that. Last year, all four AFC North teams were over .500, and three made the playoffs, the only division that can claim that -- and that was with two quarterbacks suffering season-ending injuries.

Preseason Super Bowl odds are not the be-all, end-all, but the AFC North has established itself as the premier division. Over the past three years, the group is 80-50-1 (.615 win pct) against teams from other divisions, by far the best in the league. And it is the most stable division in football by a long shot.

• The Steelers haven't had a losing record since hiring Mike Tomlin in 2006, and their record since then is third-best in the league.
• The Ravens have the league's fourth-best record since hiring John Harbaugh in 2008.
• The Browns are tied for the league's 11th-best record since hiring Kevin Stefanski in 2020.
• The Bengals have the league's 20th-best record since hiring Zac Taylor in 2019 but the league's sixth-best record since 2021, Joe Burrow's first healthy season.

Is it a guarantee that this is the NFL's best division by season's end? No. For now, though, it's hard to argue against the AFC North being the toughest division in football, and with all four quarterbacks facing big questions, it's hard to argue against it being the most intriguing, too.

Ravens: Can Lamar Jackson get over the hump, and can defense avoid dropoff?

In 2023, Lamar Jackson, already a superstar and MVP, got better. In his first year under Todd Monken's more balanced offense (compared to Greg Roman's run-heavy one), Jackson posted his highest completion percentage and yards per attempt of his career while tying his lowest interception percentage. His expected points added per play on throws were the second-highest of his career.

The surface-level stats don't do Jackson's progress as a passer justice. Here's what does:

• career-high 8.7 yards per attempt when pressured, best of his career
• 21.4% sack rate when pressured, second-best of his career
• 52.9% completion percentage (best of his career) and 5.0 touchdown-to-interception rate (second-best of his career) on throws 10+ yards downfield
• 76.4% completion percentage and 10-1 touchdown-to-interception ratio on throws between the numbers (both best of his career)
• Career-bests in completion percentage, yards per attempt, sack rate, expected points added per dropback on play-action passes

So if you wanted to see Jackson in a more diverse, nuanced passing game, you got it ... and he excelled. It was not just an MVP season for Jackson, but a true prove-it one.

And then it fell apart. In an eminently winnable AFC Championship game at home against the Chiefs, Jackson threw an awful, inexplicable interception, lost a fumble and was off-target on nearly 22% of his throws. If this was a one-off, that'd be one thing. But Jackson's track record of playoffs letdowns grew in devastating fashion, especially in a game where Patrick Mahomes admitted he had to learn to be a game manager .

To be clear, the Ravens' 17-10 loss on that rainy day in Baltimore wasn't all on Jackson. The Ravens couldn't and didn't run the ball. If Zay Flowers doesn't fumble reaching for the end zone, perhaps we're talking about the Ravens, and, in turn, Jackson very differently. But we're not. And until they get over that hump, we won't.

There's a chance Jackson is even better in Year 2 with Todd Monken, when the quarterback and his offensive coordinator can build off of their very positive first season together. And to address that lack of running -- six attempts by running backs against the Chiefs -- Jackson and Monken have a new, not-so-secret weapon: Derrick Henry.

At 30, Henry is not what he was at the peak of his powers. That doesn't mean he's not a massive upgrade, though. Let's take a look at Henry last year, behind Tennessee's 17th-best rush-blocking unit (per Pro Football Focus), and Gus Edwards behind Baltimore's eighth-ranked one.

Henry's 3.32 yards per rush after contact were his fewest since 2017. They were also ninth-best among 48 qualifying running backs. His tackle avoidance rate was the second-highest of his career. Don't let the basic yards per carry number (4.2, a career low) fool you. He is still a very good player, and one that opponents dread tackling always, but especially late in seasons. That's when Baltimore wants to be playing its best football. Now, it has a bell cow star to lean on in those situations.

For as big as the Henry addition was for the offense, there were similarly large departures on the defense, namely coordinator Mike Macdonald (Seahawks head coach) and linebacker Patrick Queen (Steelers). Replacing Macdonald is Zachary Orr, a first-time play caller and the second-youngest coordinator in the league. Replacing Queen is Trenton Simpson, a 2023 third-round pick who hardly played as a rookie . Add in two rookies -- Nate Wiggins and T.J. Tampa -- who are expected to contribute sooner rather than later, and that's a lot of newness for a win-now team.

Still, as long as Roquan Smith is around, things should be all right. Marlon Humphrey, Kyle Hamilton, Marcus Williams and 2023 breakout Justin Madubuike are there, too. Baltimore is still waiting for a breakout pass rusher, but for now, even if the defense falls off some from its excellent 2023, it shouldn't be too dramatic of a dip.

Bengals: Can Joe Burrow, defense get back to 2022 form?

There was something off about the Bengals' 2023 from the start. Burrow's calf injury never really went away, and before we saw if he could overcome it, torn wrist ligaments ended his season. I wrote about Burrow in specific in last week's NFL Thursday Thoughts on quarterbacks returning from season-ending injuries .

Burrow's calf injury didn't really give us a fair chance to evaluate him. Burrow is very good in the basic areas -- accuracy, operating on time, etc. -- but he is special because he is excellent (and underrated) making second-read plays. From 2021-22, he ranked third (out of 35 qualifiers) in expected points added per play when he took three or more seconds to throw. In 2023, he was 27th out of 32, just behind Desmond Ridder. That sort of drop off doesn't happen to a healthy, young player; Burrow was only one of those two.

Also helping Burrow, ideally, will be a better offensive line. The Bengals were 22nd in Pro Football Focus' pass blocking grade and 27th in ESPN's pass block win rate. So in comes guys who will not be pushed around: Trent Brown and first-round pick Amarius Mims, who weigh a combined 720 pounds.

The Bengals' defense fall off, though, was more surprising. Here's why free-agent acquisitions Vonn Bell and Geno Stone were among my 50 under-the-radar players who could shape the season :

The Bengals allowed the second-most completions of 20-plus yards (65) and the most net yards per attempt (7.6) in the NFL. Cincinnati knew it can't afford that again, so it brought back Bell and brought in Stone, who had seven interceptions and nine passes defended last year.

Cincinnati also made a concerted effort to get more stout up the middle by signing Sheldon Rankins and drafting Kris Jenkins Jr. This unit must be better at all three levels in 2024.

Cleveland Browns: Is there hope for Deshaun Watson?

I'll answer that question with another one: Who knows? Watson's on-field performance is befuddling, as I discussed in that column last week . Here's a snippet.

From 2022-23, out of 40 quarterbacks, Watson ranked 33rd in yards per attempt and yards per completion. He also ranked 37th in completion percentage and 34th in off-target percentage. ... It's almost as if Watson has the yips. Last year, nearly 10% of his passes 0-5 yards downfield were off target, by far the worst rate in the league. In fact, since 2017, there have been 180 passer rating-qualified seasons. That off-target rate would have ranked 177th. When even the most basic plays become struggles, it's a big issue.

Watson has weapons: Amari Cooper is still getting it done, Jerry Jeudy adds some juice to the slot, and David Njoku emerged as one of the league's best pass-catching tight ends last year. But Cleveland didn't sign Jameis Winston to a significant deal just to throw money away.

An under-discussed reason Watson -- or whomever plays quarterback -- has to be better is that the defense cannot be better. In 2023, the Browns gave up the fewest yards per game by any team since the 2014 Seahawks. They allowed the fewest first downs per game since the 2009 Jets. Their defensive expected points added against the pass was the third-best this millennium. Defenses like this don't come around often, and they basically never come around in this era. The Browns bring back pretty much everyone and should get better injury luck. But even with another outstanding defense, it will all fall on Watson's shoulders. Given the last two years, that's a nervy proposition.

Steelers: Do either of Russell Wilson or Justin Fields fit Arthur Smith's ideal offense?

Russell Wilson's calf injury is muddying up the quarterback battle with Justin Fields, but whoever wins said battle will need to alter his game to fit offensive coordinator Arthur Smith's offense.

Smith's terrific two-year run as Tennessee's offensive coordinator from 2019-20 provide insight into what he wants: a heavy play action, heavy under-center scheme. During those years, the Titans were second in percentage of dropbacks that featured play action and third in percentage of snaps from under center. They led the league in expected points added on throws.

Over the last two years, Wilson has been among the worst quarterbacks in these scenrios: 30th (among 38 qualifiers) in both yards per attempt and sack rate on under-center, play-action dropbacks. You can probably chalk it up to a doomed marriage in Denver; he was actually quite good in this area in Seattle. But you can also chalk it up to declining athleticism and escapability, aspects that made him such a special player with the Seahawks.

Here's the number that describes it best: From 2022-23 in Denver, Wilson was sacked nearly 24% of the time he was pressured, third-highest in the NFL. From 2014-20 in Seattle, he was sacked on just 18% of his pressured dropbacks.

Where Wilson strays most from Smith's vision is where he throws the ball. In 2019-20, Smith's quarterback, Ryan Tannehill, threw 54% of his passes over the middle, sixth in the NFL. Wilson, meanwhile, had never thrown more than 45% of his passes over the middle in a season until last year, when Sean Payton reined in the offense before benching and cutting Wilson. Wilson's on-paper numbers look improved, but it was a very basic offense. That's why Payton has a brand-new quarterback room this year. Wilson ranked 33rd (out of 38) on expected points added per dropback on throws over the middle last year.

Then you get Fields, whose physical talent is obvious but inconsistencies are maddening. He's 34th (out of 38) in passing success rate over the past three seasons when under center. He holds onto the ball too long, a major no-no in Smith's ideal offense, which wants you to drop back, fake the handoff, hit your back foot and let the ball go.

This isn't to say it can't work. Smith's 2019-20 offense loved to throw the ball downfield, just like Wilson and Fields do, and there have been flashes of both being good play-action passers, even if it hasn't been exactly how Smith likes to utilize it. Plus, it's up to Smith to figure out how to adapt his scheme to fit his players. The Steelers also did major upgrading to its offensive line, a must for two quarterbacks who like to hold onto the ball.

We know its floor under Tomlin is incredibly stable, but hitting the floor is getting old in Pittsburgh. No losing seasons is nice. No playoff wins since the 2016 season isn't. The hope is an upgraded offensive line, a passing game with plenty of deep-ball aspects, a dependable-as-always defense and a steady head coach all come together, and even a slight upgrade at quarterback raises Pittsburgh's ceiling.

More Thursday Thoughts:

Part 1: Can Caleb Williams and the Bears deliver on high expectations?
Part 2: Is this the Cowboys' last run as we know them?
Part 3: How will quarterbacks returning from season-ending injuries fare?