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Top 5 Group of Five Teams to Watch for the College Football Playoff
By College Football News,
2 days ago
Finally, the College Football Playoff is open to everyone.
Sort of.
Now there's a way to play your way in. Win your conference championship, go unbeaten doing it, and you're almost certain to get one of those coveted 12 spots in the tournament.
The top five ranked conference champs according to the final College Football Playoff rankings will get in, so the ACC, Big Ten, Big 12, and SEC will almost certainly be assured a spot.
So which five teams from the AAC, Conference USA, MAC, Mountain West, and Sun Belt have the best chance of getting in?
With all apologies to Appalachian State, Miami University, and Toledo, here are our choices for the five teams with the best shot for the CFP.
Memphis’ Seth Henigan (9) runs after handing off the ball during practice at the Billy J. Murphy Athletic Complex at the University of Memphis on Wednesday, July 31, 2024.
Liberty tore through a weak 2023 schedule—no games against Power Five teams and the best win coming against New Mexico State, twice—and parlayed that into a Fiesta Bowl showdown against Oregon. The Flames went up 6-0, but then very, very bad things happened, culminating in a 45-6 loss.
The only reason the Flames are in the 5 spot is that they likely can’t afford a loss. They’ll probably be the Conference USA champion again, but once more, there aren’t any games against Power teams; Power Four this time.
The best win this time might be against Appalachian State on the road, and that’s not a sure thing. There will likely be at least one loss somewhere.
It got a bit lost last season that Air Force started the season 8-0 and had a decent finishing kick. They were stuffed by Army, the offense went cold, and the team lost its last four regular season games before finding its groove in a relatively dominant win over James Madison in the Armed Forces Bowl.
This year’s team has to replace everyone, but the schedule is very light. There's no Boise State, no UNLV, and the toughest road game is at Baylor. Air Force can win the Mountain West title at 12-1 and make it in.
This isn’t the team of the last two seasons, but there’s still talent in New Orleans, and while Wille Fritz is a terrific head coach, the Green Wave might have upgraded getting Jon Sumrall from Troy.
Going 11-2 might get it done to get in. Tulane could upset Kansas State if everything breaks right, but it could lose that, lose at Oklahoma, and then run the table and get in. That would require - probably - beating Memphis twice.
It would be fitting if the program that’s been so strong for decades and holds the honor of getting the first Group of Five cookie into the New Year’s Six bowls - it beat Arizona - would get the first shot in a new and improved College Football Playoff. The problem?
At Oregon. That’s the second game of the season. There can’t be another loss after that, so here’s the call. If the Broncos beat Wyoming on the road in late November, they’ll get in. If they lose - and it’s our preseason thought that they will - they’ll still win the Mountain West, but will be out because of …
Again, this comes down to the Boise State game at Wyoming - at least it is as we’re talking like a couple of regular fellas in early August. Memphis will lose to former head coach Mike Norvell and Florida State on the road, and a midseason misfire at USF will matter.
But it’ll roll through everyone else, beat Tulane twice, and it’ll be one spot ahead of Boise State in the final College Football Playoff rankings to get the honor of playing the 5 seed in your 2024 College Football Playoff.
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