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The Top 4 College Football Playoff Seeds: A Step-by-Step Path to the CFP
By Pete Fiutak,
1 day ago
This isn’t like it used to be.
As Florida State and Georgia found out last season in painful fashion, there were only four spaces available in each of the first ten years of the College Football Playoff - being fifth might as well be 100th in that race.
Now, getting a top four seed means you get a first round bye in the expanded 12-team version. That means an extra week off, that means an automatic spot in the top eight, that means …
Being in the top four might not be as rewarding as you think.
Let me put it this way. Notre Dame can only get as high as the five seed - the top four seeds only go to conference champions. While that might seem like an awful deal, the Irish 1) get a few weeks off without having to play a conference championship game, and 2) get a home game in the first round of the playoff instead of dealing with a neutral site 13th game.
That’s going to to be the way for a few other teams who don’t play in a conference title game, but get some more time off to rest up and get ready for this.
But yeah, you want one of these top four seeds.
Here’s step-by-step how this expanded College Football Playoff thing plays out.
Dec 2, 2022; Las Vegas, NV, USA; Utah Utes head coach Kyle Whittingham and quarterback Cameron Rising (7) are introduced before playing against the Southern California Trojans in the PAC-12 Football Championship at Allegiant Stadium.
- Florida State will be solid in the opener against Georgia Tech in a decent battle in Dublin, take care of Boston College, and fight through tougher-than-wanted home dates against Memphis - who might be the in the College Football Playoff as the top Group of Five champion - and Cal.
- Clemson is a true 50/50 game, but it’s in Tallahassee. The Noles will keep on rolling, will get by Duke after a week off to be 7-0, and then …
- Miami will play like it’s the program’s Super Bowl. The Canes will pull off a thriller in Miami Gardens, FSU will rebound to get by North Carolina, and then …
- Notre Dame will hang on for dear life to win a wild game in South Bend.
- The Noles get two weeks off with an open date and Charleston Southern before closing at home against Florida. It’ll play Clemson or Miami in the ACC Championship, and win.
- Because of the head-to-head win, Notre Dame will be fourth in the final College Football Playoff Rankings, but it’ll be the 5 seed because it can’t get one of the top four seeds - no conference championship. FSU will nestle in at the 4.
- There won’t be any problems over the first three games. Southern Utah, Baylor, and at Utah State will all be wins, everyone will be fired up about the Utes, and …
- Oklahoma State pulls off the win in Stillwater. The Utes bounce back fast with a gut-check thriller over Arizona a week later.
- Following a week off, Utah goes on a run. I t won’t be dominant, but the victories pile up against Arizona State on the road, home against TCU, and then it all rocks. At Houston, a week off before BYU, at Colorado, and at Iowa State to earn a spot in the Big 12 Championship.
- The loss at UCF in the regular season finale won’t matter.
- The Utes will take care of Kansas State in a good enough performance in the Big 12 Championship to get the 3 seed.
The College Football Playoff 2 Seed Will Be: Ohio State
- The Buckeye Tour of Angst starts out with a whole ton of ugly. Ohio State will beat Akron, Western Michigan, and Marshall by a combined score of 145 to 16.
- Going to Michigan State is a decent fight for about a half, and then the Buckeye D will clamp down. Iowa might not score - and yes, the Hawkeye O will be better this year - a week later.
- The date at Oregon might be the game of the college football season. The atmosphere will be insane, the Ducks will come out firing, and Ohio State will thrive in the environment and pull off the win.
- The week off couldn’t come at a better time. A rolling Nebraska will be stopped in Columbus, the Buckeyes will survive a defensive slugfest - somehow overcoming a crowd wearing all white shirts - at Penn State, and then it’s tune-up time.
- Purdue, at Northwestern, Indiana - there won’t be a moment of drama against any of the three.
- Yes, Ohio State will beat Michigan.
- Yes, Ohio State will beat Michigan again in the Big Ten Championship.
- Whether it’s 12-1 - with a loss somewhere to Oregon or Penn State, or (gasp!) Michigan - or 13-0, Ohio State being 1 of 2 doesn’t matter that much, and being the 2 could be a plus if there’s a first round upset of some sort.
The College Football Playoff 1 Seed Will Be: Georgia
- Georgia comes out with a hammer drop right away against Clemson. The Tigers will score first, and the Dawgs will take over from there.
- Tennessee Tech will be a scrimmage, and then comes the scare. Georgia will beat Kentucky on the road, but it’ll be rocky enough to make everyone unnecessarily freak out.
- There’s a week off before facing Alabama. The defense will pitch a gem in a fantastic win.
- Auburn and Mississippi State won’t be layups, but there won’t be a ton of drama at home.
- Texas will be all jacked up for the home game against Georgia. GameDay will be there. Several hours later, Georgia will establish itself as the star of the SEC.
- Getting a week off before Florida will matter. It’ll be a win, but it won’t be a breeze. That’s followed up be a nasty game at Ole Miss. If there’s a loss on the regular season slate, it’ll come in Oxford.
- Tennessee will catch Georgia down a wee bit, but it’ll falter late. Even after all the battles throughout the SEC, the Dawgs will be No. 1 in the CFP poll. That will be solidified after losses to UMass and Georgia Tech.
- Georgia will take care of Bama a second time this season in the SEC Championship.
- The Dawgs might lose once, but they’re not losing twice. They’ll be the 1 or 2 seed, or at worst, the 5 seed if Bama goes Bama in the SEC Championship.
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