Texas Tech Red Raiders Preview 2024
We did this last year and a slew of Texas Tech fans got mad at me.
Texas Tech had just one double-digit win season since 1976, and it hadn’t won more than eight games since 2009. And then it came out and lost to Wyoming, Oregon, and West Virginia on the way to a 3-5 start and a 7-6 season.
But there’s a positive to all of this.
The point of highlighting that in last season’s preview was because things were about to change in a big way under second-year head man Joey McGuire. They didn’t - the Red Raiders lost to a bad BYU, got bombed on by Texas, and had one win over a team that finished with a winning record, but …
1) Welcome to the transfer portal - Texas Tech did a strong job this offseason. 2) There was already a good base of players in place, and 3) the schedule.
2023 Texas Tech lost to one mediocre team - again, BYU - and the other five defeats came to teams that finished with nine wins or more. It played eight bowl teams, and one of them went to the College Football Playoff.
The first five games this season - and eight of the first ten - are against teams that didn’t go bowling. There’s no more Texas on the slate, missing Utah and Kansas State take out two of the Big 12’s best teams, and not playing Kansas or UCF isn’t a bad deal this season, either.
But it shouldn’t take a super-light schedule for Texas Tech to finally break through. It should have the talent to go along with the coaching to make a big push in the Big 12 chase - the Red Raiders had 12 straight losing seasons in conference play before McGuire went 5-4 in each of the last two years.
Texas Tech is overdue for a really, really big season. This might be it if …
NOTE: The previews were published early this summer. We tried to catch the changes, but if we missed anything, please let us know at @ColFootballNews and we'll fix it right away.
Texas Tech Preview 2024: Offense
- The passing game has to be sharper, the turnovers have to stop, and the late-season inconsistencies can’t show up early. It’s Texas Tech. It shouldn’t have one of the least-efficient air attacks in college football.
Tyler Shough is gone, and now the starting quarterback gig is all there for Behren Morton to handle. He might not be dangerous taking off, but he can hit the midrange throws with the experience to keep the chains moving.
- It’s Texas Tech. The receivers will be there but the volume production has to arrive. Three of the top four receivers are gone, but Coy Eakin should be more of a big play threat on the outside. The transfer combination of Josh Kelly (Washington State) and Caleb Douglas (Florida) will be good. The tight ends should be a strength with Arizona State’s Jail Conyers joining Mason Tharp.
- Tahj Brooks was a monster. He ran for over 1,500 yards with ten scores, and he’ll once again be the focal point of the attack behind a potential whale of an offensive line. This is where the transfer portal takes things up a notch.
Texas Tech nailed it up front with Vinny Sciury (Toledo), Sterling Porcher (Middle Tennessee), and Davion Carter (Memphis) making an already good situation outstanding.
Texas Tech Preview 2024: Defense
- The stats might not have been great, but the defense wasn’t all that bad. Texas Tech was 2-5 when allowing 27 points or more and 5-1 when allowing fewer. The transfer portal didn’t help as much on the D as it did the O, but the other side of the ball should be better. That should take a bit of the pressure off.
- Can the defense find a pass rush? There wasn’t too much production last year, but what was there is gone. There should be a decent enough rotation to keep everyone fresh and make up for the lack of starters. The linebacking combination of Ben Roberts in the middle and Jacob Rodriguez on the outside will clean everything up.
- The secondary will be sneaky good. There aren’t any major stars in the bunch, but CJ Baskerville is a stat-sheet filler at one safety spot and CB Bralyn Lux broke up plenty of plays. The depth is young and might need a bit of time to be a factor, but the portal brought in more options.
Texas Tech Key To The Season
Turnovers … stop them, especially the interceptions.
How did Texas Tech biff against a mediocre BYU? Five turnovers. How did they fail to pull off the upset there for the taking against Oregon? Four turnovers.
Kansas State and Texas each won big, but the three turnovers didn’t help - The Red Raiders were 0-4 when turning it over three or more times.
12 interceptions in those four games and 18 in all - that can’t happen again, especially against a much, much lighter schedule. That’s part of the reason why …
Texas Tech Key Player
QB Behren Morton, Jr.
He was the guy who looked great in the offseason and was ready in reserve. Over the last two seasons he got in plenty of work with 22 touchdown passes and had a few great moments, but the 14 picks hurt. Now if he’s not it, it’s up to West Georgia transfer Cameran Brown to be the star.
Texas Tech Top Transfer, Biggest Transfer Loss
Top Transfer In: OG Vinny Sciury
There’s a good chance former Arizona State TE Jalin Conyers turns into the team’s top transfer, and Washington State WR Josh Kelly will fit right in, but the 6-4, 295-pound Sciury should be the most productive of the bunch of new guys, even if he’s not noticed, The All-MAC star from Toledo will be a rock at one guard gig.
Top Transfer Out: QB Tyler Shough
Yeah, he always got hurt, and yeah, Behren Morton is good, and yeah … Shough is about to put up about a bazillion yards as the new Louisville starting quarterback. When he plays, he’s great. It’s that staying in one piece and playing part that’s the problem.
Texas Tech Key Game
at Arizona, Oct. 5
Assuming Texas Tech doesn’t bonk at Washington State in Week 2, and assuming it wins the Big 12 home games against Arizona State and Cincinnati teams that didn’t go bowling last year, there’s a crazy chance to start the season 6-0 if it can get by Arizona in Tucson.
Texas Tech 10 Best Players
1. Tahj Brooks, RB Sr.
2. Ben Roberts, LB Soph.
3. Behren Morton, QB Jr.
4. CJ Baskerville, SS Sr.
5. Vinny Sciury, OG Sr.
6. Caleb Rogers, OG Sr.
7. Josh Kelly, WR Sr.
8. Bralyn Lux, CB Sr.
9. Jalin Conyers, TE Sr.
10. Gino Garcia, PK Sr.
Texas Tech 2023 Fun Stats
- 4th Down Conversions: Texas Tech 24-of-37 (65%), Opponents 11-of-25 (44%)
- Punt Return Average: Texas Tech 19.5 yards, Opponents 7.6 yards
- Total Offense: Opponents 5,064 yards, Texas Tech 5,027 yards
Texas Tech 2024 Season Prediction, Win Total, What Will Happen
This is hardly a perfect team - there’s a LOT of ifs with the turnover and starting 22 - but it should be deep enough and talented enough to handle the relatively light and breezy slate.
There will be times when things don’t go right against a TCU here or an Arizona State there, but go ahead and set the goals high with the assumption that everything will be in place as the season goes on.
The four Big 12 road games against Arizona, Iowa State, Oklahoma State and TCU will be the key moments, but win two of those and there’s a real shot to play for the Big 12 Championship.
The first six home games of the season are against teams that didn’t go bowling, and the West Virginia date is the regular season finale. The Red Raiders must take advantage of the break.
Set The Texas Tech Win Total At … 7.5
Likely Wins: Abilene Christian, Cincinnati, Colorado, North Texas
50/50 Games: at Arizona, Baylor, at Iowa State, at Oklahoma State, at TCU, at Washington State, West Virginia
Likely Losses: No sure-thing likely losses
2024 Texas Tech Football Schedule
Aug 31 Abilene Christian
Sept 7 at Washington State
Sept 14 North Texas
Sept 21 Arizona State
Sept 28 Cincinnati
Oct 5 at Arizona
Oct 12 OPEN DATE
Oct 19 Baylor
Oct 26 at TCU
Nov 2 at Iowa State
Nov 9 Colorado
Nov 16 OPEN DATE
Nov 23 at Oklahoma State
Nov 30 West Virginia
Missing: BYU, Houston, Kansas, Kansas State, Utah, UCF
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