Air Force Football: 2024 Preview, Best Players, Top Transfers, Season Prediction, Win Total

Air Force College Football Preview 2024

Let’s just have some fun and go there…

How great a story would it be if Air Force made the expanded College Football Playoff?

And here’s the wild thing: if it could somehow get it done, this could be the one Group of Five program that could do some damage.

With its running style and defensive system, this would be the proverbial team no one would want to face.

The schedule works out amazingly well—win at Baylor, and there isn’t a game on the slate that’s out of reach. The team should reload, because that’s what it does under Troy Calhoun.

The 2017 and 2018 teams finished with losing seasons, but over the last ten years, Calhoun pulled off nine or more wins six times and won eight games in 2015. And…

Okay, okay, some serious roll slowing has to be done here.

Sometimes the Air Force next-man-up style doesn’t click, and there are a LOT of next men who had better be great fast.

You don’t win as much as Calhoun has—seriously, 5-0 in bowl games over the last eight seasons—without knowing what you’re doing.

So don’t get too twisted about EVERYONE seemingly gone from last year’s team that was so good until November came around. Seriously, there are a ton of players missing from the
…

Air Force Football Preview 2024: Offense

- The top three Air Force wide receivers caught a combined 27 passes. Why does that matter? They have the most starting experience for an offense that doesn’t use its receivers.

The Falcons return one starter.

Again, it can’t be too stressed enough - Air Force has to replace a ton of players every years. Offensive coordinator and long time assistant Mike Thiessen knows how this whole thing works. It’s his tenth season handling the attack, and we know what’s coming.

Air Force will be among the best teams in the country running the ball, it’ll be amazing at controlling the clock, and it’ll occasionally connect on the big play.

Senior WR Jared Roznos led the team with 12 grabs - he average over 31 yards per catch. Cade Harris averaged close to 36 yards per catch on his five receptions, and Brandon Engel averaged close to 18 yards per catch on his ten. They’re all back, but …

- Can the Air Force running backs come through like normal? The top two backs are gone, but 215-pound fullback Dylan Carson is back after averaging over seven yards per run with close to 500 yards with two scores. As always, there are quick, compact backs ready to fill in the gaps.

Aiden Calvert gets more work now after averaging 7.7 yards per carry on his 177 yards, and the 12 other options will fill in the rotation.

- Yeah, all five offensive linemen have to be replaced, and yes, they’ll all be okay. They’re all upperclassmen around guards Michael McAninch and Jackson Kohal in a good-sized interior.

John Busha is a running back-sized 6-2, 200-pound junior who’ll quarterback this thing early on, but it’ll be a battle for the job with Quentin Hayes and Josh Johnson two super-quick sophomores who just need a little time logged in.

Air Force Football Preview 2024: Defense

- The defense was amazing last season. It allowed just 18 points per game, was sixth in the nation giving up a mere 277 yards per outing, and it was No. 1 in the Mountain West in third down stops.

It all ties together. The offense controls the clock and keeps the defense rested. The defense gets off the field fast with a good rotation of people coming in to stay fresh. Repeat.

However like the offense, there’s a ton of talent gone with just three starters back. But it’s Air Force. Like the offense, this is how it rolls.

- There’s not a ton of pressure into the backfield, but there will be enough. Payton Zdroik is an undersized baller of a defensive tackler who made 4.5 sacks and 32 stops last season. He’l be in a rotation with Aidan Swartz on the nose, and it’ll be a parade of 245 to 270ish pound guys around those two.

The linebacking corps does most of the heavy lifting when it comes to getting into the backfield. The Falcons lost Bo Richter and PJ Ramsey - who was more of a real end - and their 31 combined tackles for loss.

Again with this phrase and line; it’s Air Force. It has upperclassmen waiting in the wings to produce, with Zach Juckel about to be one of the team’s leading tacklers on the inside, and Jackson Adams and Elijah Sanders about to be players who matter getting into the backfield.

- The secondary has playmakers, and, as always, everyone can hit. Corners Jamari Bellamy and Trey Williams combined for 70 tackles and nine broken up passes, and Jerome Gaillard should be solid in the rotation at one of the spots.

Levi Brown and Jake Martin have a little bit of experience at safety, but this will be on-the-job training for the jobs. The tackles will be there, but the production when the ball is in the air has to arrive.

Key To The Air Force Football Season

That run defense has to stay strong.
Again, it’s all about the process. The less the opposing offense is on the field, the better the run defense stats. The better the run defense stats, the more the Air Force offense is on the field.

Air Force allowed fewer than 115 rushing yards eight times last season and went 8-0. It was 1-4 when allowing that many or more.

To get even more insane on that exact number, Air Force is 17-0 over the last two seasons when allowing fewer than 115 yards on the ground, and 2-7 when it doesn’t.

Air Force Key Player

John Busha, QB Jr.
There’s always a good-running quarterback at Air Force, and that good-running quarterback has to be good for at least one deep completion per game.

Busha got in a little work last season and hit one of his two throws in the loss to UNLV and 8-of-17 for 131 yards against Boise State. He’s a good-sized runner who was held to 11 yards with a score on his 13 carries.

Air Force Football Top Transfer, Biggest Transfer Loss

Top Transfer In: None
Air Force doesn’t go after or bring in transfers. Not that it can’t, it just doesn’t.

Top Transfer Out: TE Caleb Rilos, Sr.
Air Force doesn’t have a problem losing transfers, but the 6-5, 255-pound Rilos will be missed a bit. He only caught eight passes for 97 yards, but he can hit. Now he’ll be a part of the Florida rotation.

Air Force Key Game

at Wyoming, Sept. 28
The Mountain West is relatively even at the midsection to the bottom, but if Air Force is its normal self it should be able to roll though most of the conference season.

The showdowns against Fresno State and Colorado State are at home, and this is the one really, really dangerous road trip. Playing in Laramie is always a bear trap, and if the Falcons can get around it, they should be in great shape.

10 Best Air Force Football Players

1. Payton Zdroik, DT Sr.
2. Jamari Bellamy, CB Sr.
3. Dylan Carson, FB Jr.
4. Josh Busha, QB Jr.
5. Camby Goff, S Sr.
6. Aidan Calvert, RB Sr.
7. Matthew Dapper, PK Sr.
8. Jared Roznos, WR Sr.
9. Michael McAninch, OG Jr.
10. Zach Juckel, LB Jr.

Air Force 2023 Fun Stats

- Time of Possession: Air Force 33:27, Opponents 26:33

- Sacks: Air Force 30 for 205 yards, Opponents 11 for 52

- Fumbles: Air Force 21 (lost 11), Opponents 10 (lost 4)

Air Force Football 2024 Win Total Prediction: What to Expect This Season

Does this thing still work?

Ultra-consistent running game, nasty defense, no mistakes, ruthless efficiency.

If that’s Air Force again this season, it should be deep in the Mountain West title chase until the end.

The two most dangerous games are at home against Fresno State and Colorado State, and the date at Wyoming isn’t all that awful considering the other three conference away games are against teams that didn’t go bowling. There’s no Boise State or UNLV to deal with.

In all, there are eight games against teams that didn’t go to a bowl game, and the Falcons should be able to win almost all of them.

There will be a few games when the curveball isn’t snapping, but overall this will be yet another great season with a real shot at pushing for the Group of Five’s College Football Playoff spot.

Set The Air Force Win Total At … 7.5

Likely Wins: Merrimack

50/50 Games: at Army, at Baylor, Colorado State, Fresno State, Navy, at Nevada, at New Mexico, Oregon State, at San Diego State, San Jose State, at Wyoming

Likely Losses: No apparent sure-thing losses

2024 Air Force Football Schedule

Aug 31 Merrimack
Sept 7 San Jose State
Sept 14 at Baylor
Sept 21 OPEN DATE
Sept 28 at Wyoming
Oct 5 Navy
Oct 12 at New Mexico
Oct 19 Colorado State
Oct 26 OPEN DATE
Nov 2 at Army
Nov 9 Fresno State
Nov 16 Oregon State
Nov 23 at Nevada
Nov 30 at San Diego State

Missing: Boise State, Hawaii, UNLV, Utah State, (Washington State)