New On3 Recruiting Prediction Machine pick for Ohio State to land defensive target

The month of July has had both ups and downs for Ohio State on the recruiting trail and this week brings an opportunity once again for either, as top targets SAF Trey McNutt and DT Jarquez Carter make their college decisions.

With McNutt, at least for now, it appears that will be another “down” for the Buckeyes, with Oregon as the favorite to land the top 20 prospect and 5-star per the On3 Industry Rankings . Regardless of his decision this week, it looks like Ohio State will get a shot to flip the legacy talent, as an official visit to Columbus in the fall seems to be in the cards.

On the flip side, an “up” for Ohio State could very well come on Thursday when the Newberry (FL) star Carter makes his college decision known. As things currently stand, the intel I have points to the Scarlet and Gray being the pick, and after doing some digging on Tuesday evening, I’ve decided to place an On3 Recruiting Prediction Machine pick in for the Buckeyes, joining On3 VP Steve Wiltfong and Michael Langston of Warchant.com (FSU site) in doing so .

The contenders

Heading into Thursday’s decision, Carter has a top five of Ohio State, Florida, Miami, UCF, and Penn State.

He made official visits to all five programs this summer, going to UF May 31-June 2, Penn State June 7-9, UCF June 14-16, Ohio State June 18-20, and to Miami June 21-23.

While all five schools have had some level of confidence at various times during this recruitment, a top three of the Buckeyes, Hurricanes, and somewhat surprisingly, the Golden Knights, have emerged as decision week has gone on.

No program has been told they’re eliminated, and even when Carter’s decision comes in on Thursday, there are a couple of programs who feel that the door may remain cracked open for this recruitment to still be open for the taking all the way to Signing Day.

The intel leading to the RPM pick

I’ve been writing on Lettermen Row for some time now that Carter to Ohio State was a realistic scenario, including most recently as in last week’s A-Deck when I wrote about the upcoming decisions of both he and McNutt .

For a while, I have heard Ohio State as a top two contender in this recruitment. Coming off his official visit in June, sources inside the WHAC felt “great” about where they stood with Carter and felt they “were at least in the top two”. At one point, Penn State thought it was them or the Buckeyes for Carter. Miami thought it was them or the Buckeyes as well for the 6-foot-2, 285-pound defensive tackle. The fact that the Scarlet and Gray was the “common thread” in most of the intel I was getting, similar to the Riley Pettijohn recruitment, was certainly a good sign for OSU.

But that intel alone wasn’t enough for me to make my pick. As decision week unfolded, though, it became clear that this seemed to be going in the direction of Ohio State or Miami, with UCF as a darkhorse that was getting some late chatter. Once informed of the latter intel, I did some digging around to a few sources inside the WHAC, with one feeling like the UCF buzz wasn’t to be dismissed, and one other saying “nothing would surprise them with a Florida kid”. That said, there seemed to remain an optimism surrounding this decision with a couple people I spoke to.

I then spoke to a few people I know connected with a couple of other programs in this recruitment, and both of those sources were not 100-percent sure of what Carter would do, but they both felt it wasn’t going to be their program as the pick, and said they thought it would be Ohio State.

Putting all of the intel together, I was confident enough to put an On3 RPM pick in for the Buckeyes, with a confidence level of 60.

The impact on Ohio State’s pursuit of Malik Autry and Jahkeem Stewart

Ohio State’s currently second-ranked class in the country has 23 commits at the moment, and Carter would make the group number 24. The Buckeyes will probably take closer to 30 in this cycle when it’s all said and done.

Regardless of what the number is, two prospects that OSU will pursue no matter what would be current 2025 Auburn commit DT Malik Autry and current 2026 DL Jahkeem Stewart , who very likely could reclass to the current cycle. Ohio State is currently in the best position to flip Autry, and would be in the top three with LSU and USC for Stewart.

The bottom line here is that while Carter would give Ohio State three defensive tackles in the 2025 class, his addition would have no impact in OSU’s pursuit for Autry or Stewart. Carter, Maxwell Roy , and Trajen Odom all play different positions than the two top targets, and as mentioned, the pair would be “take no matter what” status for the Ohio State staff.

The post New On3 Recruiting Prediction Machine pick for Ohio State to land defensive target appeared first on On3 .