Sean Payton Might Not Be the Right Coach for the Rebuilding Broncos

Sean Payton is saying the right things at Denver Broncos training camp. He’s excited about coaching up the young guys and trying to keep outside noise away from the building. But at some point, watching Bo Nix, Jarrett Stidham and Zach Wilson battle for the quarterback job, the following thought must have crossed Payton’s mind:

What am I doing here in Denver?

The Broncos are rebuilding and everything about their timeline makes sense .... except for their head coach. They decided to take most of the salary-cap hit for Russell Wilson’s contract this season. Now is a time for patience and a multi-year process to build a contender. That might have worked when Payton got into coaching in the 1990s. In today’s NFL landscape, there is no way everyone sits back and remains calm if Payton has his second straight losing record.

The Broncos have the richest owners in the league – the Walton-Penner family -- and signed Payton to a five-year contract that reportedly averages $18 million per year. According to the sports business site Sportico, he is the highest-paid coach in any American sport. The salary itself is not problematic. Payton is a brilliant offensive coach, a great teacher and an inspiring leader. He likely will be inducted into the Hall of Fame. It’s the team that doesn’t make sense.

Payton’s coaching skills might not help this roster in the short term. Sportsbooks place the Broncos win total at 5.5 – ahead of only Carolina and Arizona. Denver currently sits last at DraftKings in Super Bowl odds at 300-to-1.

Here are just some of the challenges Payton faces this season:

• Pro Football Focus ranks the Broncos roster No. 32 in talent. The cupboard is bare in part because they traded two first-round picks, two second-round picks and more for Wilson in 2022. While they’ve had some hits in later rounds, not enough to make up for everything they gave away. Their offense lacks playmakers. Their defense improved after a disastrous start last season, but they lost a key leader in safety Justin Simmons this offseason.

• The Broncos couldn’t re-load in free agency because of the Wilson deal and their 2023 offseason spending. They opted to take a $53 million dead-cap hit now for their former quarterback, followed by $32 million next season. Looking forward to having cap space in March won’t lessen the sting in the moment if they lose in October.

• Warren Sharp Football, which calculates strength of schedule based on betting odds, lists the Broncos as having the eighth-most difficult schedule in the league. That’s what happens when a coach decides to join a stacked AFC. When Payton chose the Broncos, he knew Andy Reid and the Chiefs were looming in the division. Now he has to deal with Jim Harbaugh and the Chargers as well.

• Rookie quarterbacks are risky – especially the sixth QB taken in the draft. The Broncos selected Nix at No. 12 after his outstanding season at Oregon. Rookie C.J. Stroud led the Texans to a surprising playoff run last season, so maybe there’s hope. But for a recent warning about first-round QBs, look no further than 2021: No. 1 Trevor Lawrence, No. 2 Zach Wilson, No. 3 Trey Lance, No. 11 Justin Fields and No. 15 Mac Jones. Only Lawrence is still on the team that drafted him. Even an optimistic read on draft history indicates that chances of success for a first-round rookie are no higher than 50 percent.

Payton says the negativity doesn’t bother him. He doesn’t care about low expectations and the betting odds.

“I don’t have time to spend time on that,” Payton said. “Nor do I wish to spend time on it. I understand they have a job to do in where we’re selected. None of that means anything. It’s stuff to talk about when the media cycle is quiet. We’ll get ready to play. We expect to compete. We expect to win.”

Payton has some personal history on his side. He took over a 3-13 Saints team in ’06, finished 10-6 and reached the NFC title game. One of the keys to that run was signing veteran quarterback Drew Brees. Payton can’t realistically count on that kind of immediate QB success again. Maybe Nix will follow in Stroud’s footsteps and be an instant Pro Bowler. But it’s more likely that Nix will have a transition period. Payton faces a lot of pressure to play the rookie even if the veteran Stidham gives them a better chance of winning early.

The reasonable measurement of the Broncos season is how much Nix and the rest of their young core develops. On a local level, Broncos media will get a first-hand view of the youth movement and will be able to accurately gauge where the team is headed. On a national level, 5-12 will seem like a nightmare with no end in sight.

Anyone who thinks Payton has five years to see his vision through is living in fantasy land. Not fantasy football land, because there’s no one on the Broncos roster worth taking. Everything about the NFL is accelerated because of its popularity and visibility. The pressure to win now has been ratcheted up to an unprecedented level. The high-profile Payton will be an easy target if the Broncos season plays out as the sportsbooks and most analysts expect.

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