Predicting the 2024 records and end of season rankings for the AFC West

The AFC West has been one of the least competitive divisions in the NFL for the better part of the last decade.

That is mostly thanks to the Kansas City Chiefs, who have won the division the last eight years in a row. The last time they were really challenged was in 2018 by the Los Angeles Chargers, finishing with the same 12-4 record as the Chiefs, but losing the tiebreaker.

The Denver Broncos haven't been very competitive since being the last team besides K.C. to win the West back in 2015. Speaking of not being competitive, the last division title for the Las Vegas Raiders was way back in 2002, and they have only posted two winning seasons since then.

Here's how I see the West shaking out in 2024.

1. Kansas City Chiefs (14-3)

Somebody has to dethrone the Chiefs at some point, right? Well, it's not going to be this year. K.C. is in the midst of perhaps the most historic run in NFL history and has one of the best rosters in the league.

Quarterback Patrick Mahomes is in his prime and has a couple of shiny new toys at wide receiver in Hollywood Brown and Xavier Worthy. The Chiefs' defense emerged as one of the top units in the league last year under one of the best defensive coordinators of all-time, Steve Spagnuolo.

That shouldn't change in 2024 with nine starters returning. The Chiefs were delt a tough hand out of the gate with games against the Baltimore Ravens and Cincinnati Bengals in the first two weeks, but historically K.C. is dominant in September.

I have the Chiefs sweeping through the West and losing to the San Fransisco 49ers, Buffalo Bills and Houston Texans. A 14-3 record should be good enough for the No. 1 seed in the AFC.

2. Los Angeles Chargers (9-8)

Despite the fact that Jim Harbaugh has spent the last nine years coaching in the college ranks, he's a significant upgrade over Brandon Staley. Harbaugh is inheriting one of the best young quarterbacks in the league and a roster with good talent on both sides of the ball.

This season is going to be more about establishing a disciplined and professional culture than winning. For years the Chargers have been notorious for being their own worst enemy, making inexcusable mistakes during crucial moments of big games.

If Harbaugh can eliminate those habits as he instills his hard-nosed, physical brand of football, he'll get them on the right track. I expect the Chargers to hover around the .500 mark all season, but ultimately finish with a winning record that may be good enough to sneak them into the playoffs.

3. Las Vegas Raiders (6-11)

The Raiders started the offseason with a huge splash by signing defensive tackle Christian Wilkins, but didn't really do anything else of significance after. They were unable to acquire a quarterback with high upside, so they settled for a battle between second-year player Aidan O'Connell and journeyman Gardner Minshew.

Regardless of who wins the starting job, quarterback play will be limited for the Raiders this season. One positive is that they have a nice slew of skill players in receivers Davante Adams and Jakobi Meyers and tight ends Brock Bowers and Michael Mayer.

That could provide the Raiders with enough offense to at least not be in the bottom third of the league. On the defensive side, Wilkins and Maxx Crosby should make a dynamic duo, but they still have question marks at cornerback.

Las Vegas has a challenging schedule this year, including kicking off the season with a pair of back-to-back road games. It's a step back for the silver and black in 2024.

4. Denver Broncos (4-13)

Having to bite the bullet on Russell Wilson put the Broncos in an impossible situation to do anything productive during the offseason. They hope that they found their next franchise quarterback in Bo Nix, but many experts believe that he was a reach at twelfth overall.

In a perfect world Nix could ride the bench during his rookie year and develop behind a solid veteran. Unfortunately, the veteran quarterbacks on Denver's roster are Zach Wilson and Jarrett Stidham. That makes the Raiders' quarterback situation look enviable.

To make matters worse, whoever gets the nod at quarterback for the Broncos won't have much to work with. Receiver Courtland Sutton and running back Javonte Williams are average players at best. Marvin Mims can be a nice deep threat, that is assuming that the ball can get down field to him.

Patrick Surtain II is a lockdown cornerback, however the Denver defense has absolutely no threat of a pass rush. The season won't be a complete throwaway if the Broncos can get enough out of Nix to have hope for the future, but they'll still finish with one of the worst records in the league.

Related: Predicting the 2024 records and end of season rankings for the AFC East