Ranking BYU’s 12 football games in 2024 by order of difficulty

It has been difficult the last few seasons for the BYU Cougars to circle a football game on their calendar as the most important contest of the year.

That’s because the rival Utah Utes haven’t been on it since 2021, leaving opponents such as Notre Dame, Texas, Baylor, Oregon, Utah State or Boise State to receive that designation, depending upon one’s interests or background.

Utah joining the Big 12 this year changes all that, obviously. There’s no doubt that in 2024 BYU’s biggest game — barring postseason play — will be on Nov. 9, when the Cougars travel to Rice-Eccles Stadium in Salt Lake City.

BYU will take on the Utes for the first time since that 26-17 streak-snapping victory on Sept. 10, 2021, the day after BYU received an invitation to join the Big 12.

That will not only be the most-anticipated game on BYU’s 2024 schedule — it almost certainly will be the most difficult. Utah has been picked to win the Big 12 in its inaugural season in the 16-team conference, and is No. 13 in the USA Today Coaches Poll that was released Monday.

The Associated Press Preseason Top 25 will be released next week.

It was apparent at the Big 12 football media days in Las Vegas last month that the Cougars consider the Utah game the biggest on their schedule, as receiver Chase Roberts, offensive lineman Connor Pay, defensive back Jakob Robinson and defensive end Tyler Batty all mentioned the rivalry game as the one they are looking forward to the most.

Another receiver, Darius Lassiter , said Kansas’ visit on Nov. 16 is “extra” significant to him because, of course, his brother played for the Jayhawks last year in Lawrence in KU’s 38-27 win.

“I don’t know how (Utah) can’t (be the biggest),” said Pay. “We are really excited that Utah is joining our conference, and the Holy War gets to become a staple year in and year out, like it once was. And not just that we are playing each other, but now that there are conference standings on the line.

“That only adds to it,” he continued. “And then to be in such a prestigious conference like the Big 12, I don’t know how it can’t add to it. So as a college football fan, I am excited about it. As a player, it is a special thing to be a part of.”

A year ago in Dallas, there was no clear consensus among the players representing BYU at the school’s first conference media day in 12 years. Some said Texas, others said Oklahoma, or Arkansas, after the Razorbacks had put 52 points on them in Provo in 2022.

Regarding this year’s schedule, which begins Aug. 31 against FCS Southern Illinois at LaVell Edwards Stadium, coach Kalani Sitake said it feels like the hardest ever — even harder than last year due to the addition of Utah, Colorado, Arizona and Arizona State to the league.

The Cougars will see Utah, Arizona and Arizona State in 2024, but not Coach Prime’s Colorado Buffaloes, unfortunately.

“Our guys now know what to expect,” Sitake said. “Last year was a lot of uncharted territory. The schedule is just as difficult, but we should be more prepared for it. … There were a lot of new things that we weren’t sure how guys would respond to, certain things like being in a difficult environment on the road.”

The toughness of this schedule can only be properly measured at season’s end, but on paper it appears to be one of the toughest in school history. Even the nonconference games are difficult, coming as they do on the road — Sept. 6 at SMU and Sept. 14 at Wyoming.

There will be time, and space, for game-by-game predictions from the Deseret News later, and perhaps our guess at a win total. Because preseason training camp began last week and the Cougars are well into the grueling three-week preparation period, now is as good of a time as any to present our annual ranking of the Cougars’ football schedule in order of difficulty.

A reminder: This isn’t a ranking of the best teams on the schedule. Instead, it is an analysis of which games will be the most difficult for BYU to win, taking into account venue, history, matchups, and so on. For instance, we think it will be harder for BYU to win in Laramie than in Tempe. Why? A hostile crowd will be waiting for the Cougars at War Memorial (and Wyoming is always underrated), while the crowd in the Valley of the Sun could very well be pro-BYU if ASU is suffering through another dismal season.

Also, a quick reminder about the unpredictable nature of college football . That never changes.

With that in mind, here’s our annual “most-difficult-opponent-for-BYU” rankings for 2024:

1. At Utah

As mentioned above, the Big 12 will be introduced to arguably its most heated rivalry the second Saturday of November, as Utah attempts to exact revenge for something that happened more than three years ago: BYU’s breakthrough win in Provo that snapped Utah’s nine-game winning streak in the rivalry.

Everything in this matchup points in Utah’s direction — home-field advantage, more experienced quarterback (25-year-old Cam Rising), more stars who are likely bound for the NFL, like tight end Brant Kuithe.

Will it be the last rivalry game for Utah coach Kyle Whittingham, the former Cougar? Who knows. But the first BYU-Utah game at Rice-Eccles since the Utes overcame a 27-7 deficit and pulled out a 35-27 win in Zach Wilson’s freshman season will surely be intense and emotional.

“The history of the rivalry speaks for itself, in a lot of ways,” Pay said. “There aren’t very many rivalries in college football where the schools are 40 miles apart, and recruit the same high school players. They have those recruiting battles every year.

“There are close friends on both teams, coaches who have coached in both places, sometimes multiple times. I think it is pretty rare,” he continued. “So that makes it a fun, special rivalry. BYU’s brand is massive, and Utah’s brand is really big, too. It has become a national rivalry over the last couple of decades.”

And it will clearly be the most difficult game on BYU’s schedule.

2. Kansas State

BYU faced most of the best teams in the Big 12 last year while compiling its 2-7 record in the Power Four league, but didn’t have to play Kansas State, which has perennially been one of the conference’s most consistent programs.

That will happen this year, as the Wildcats travel to Provo on Sept. 21 in what will be the conference opener for both schools. Kansas State hosts Arizona on Sept. 13, but that’s a nonconference game because it was scheduled before Arizona joined the league.

At least one member of KSU’s coaching staff, former Utah State head coach Matt Wells, has some familiarity with BYU and playing in Provo. Quarterback Avery Johnson, who was MVP of the Pop Tarts Bowl, will be fun to watch against BYU’s supposedly improved defense.

3. At Central Florida

Why is this game going to be harder for BYU to win than, say, the Oklahoma State, Arizona and Kansas games? Because BYU has to travel to Orlando to take on the Knights at the Bounce House on Oct. 26, while it gets the Cowboys, Wildcats and Bears at home.

Coach Gus Malzahn’s club has acquired former Arkansas quarterback KJ Jefferson — the massive signal-caller is 1-1 against BYU — and will have some of the top playmakers on offense in the league. If nothing else, it should be a fun trip for BYU fans with Disney World and all the other amusements parks in the area. The actual game probably won’t be.

4. Oklahoma State

BYU plays the top five teams (as picked by the media) in the Big 12 this year, but the good news is that four of the five games are at LaVell Edwards Stadium. Picked third, Oklahoma State has arguably the best player in the conference, running back Ollie Gordon II.

The Cougars should have some revenge on their minds, after absolutely blowing a game last year in Stillwater. They led 24-7 before falling 40-34 in double overtime.

“We had the lead and gave it up and Ollie ran like crazy in the second half. It was frustrating, but there are a lot of good things to learn from it,” Sitake said in July. “We have to work hard, but we have to pay attention to all the little details, all the nuances that get us there.”

5. Arizona

This isn’t the same Arizona program that BYU bested 24-16 in Las Vegas to open the 2021 season. The Wildcats are No. 21 in the recently released Coaches Poll, and picked to finish fifth in the Big 12.

New coach Brent Brennan inherits a team that went 10-3 last year and quite possibly could have gone 12-0 in the regular season, having had USC and Washington in trouble before the Trojans and Huskies eked out wins.

Noah Fifita might be the best quarterback to play in LaVell Edwards Stadium this year, and receiver Tetairoa McMillan is a bona fide NFL prospect. BYU owns a three-game winning streak over Arizona, but all three have been one-score games.

6. At SMU

BYU beat SMU 24-23 in the New Mexico Bowl on Dec. 17, 2022, with a fourth-string quarterback, Sol-Jay Maiava-Peters (who is now playing for coach Bronco Mendenhall at New Mexico, ironically).

But this matchup on a Friday night in Dallas figures to be much more difficult for the Cougars; SMU will have two games under its belt (at Nevada, at home vs. Houston Christian) while BYU will have just one — the opener vs. Southern Illinois.

Since SMU is now a member of the Atlantic Coast Conference (ACC), this qualifies as BYU’s mandatory Power Four nonconference opponent. The Cougars don’t have one yet for 2025, but athletic director Tom Holmoe said last month in Las Vegas that a P4 opponent for next year will be announced soon.

7. Kansas

A lot of college football observers are calling this Kansas team one of the best in school history , thanks in part to the return of quarterback Jason Daniels, the 2023 preseason Big 12 offensive player of the year. Daniels engineered a 38-27 win over BYU last year before sustaining a season-ending injury.

The Cougars gave up two defensive touchdowns in that contest, and clearly believe they could have won in Lawrence that day if not for those miscues.

“We were right there,” said receiver Darius Lassiter. “That one hurt.”

The Jayhawks have been picked fourth in the Big 12, after going 9-4 in 2023 and returning 30 seniors.

8. At Baylor

BYU has yet to win a Big 12 road game. Aside from the game at Kansas last year, the Cougars really weren’t competitive in any conference games away from LaVell Edwards Stadium.

This Sept. 28 game at Baylor represents perhaps BYU’s best opportunity in two seasons to pick up that elusive conference road win. The Bears are picked 12th in the Big 12, after going 3-9 last year.

If former Baylor QB Gerry Bohanon, who led the Bears to a Big 12 title and Sugar Bowl win in 2021, wins the starting job at BYU and leads the Cougars into Waco in late September, this matchup could draw some national attention.

9. At Wyoming

Reporters who cover Wyoming said at the Mountain West football media days in Las Vegas that many natives of the Cowboy State would rather see the Pokes win this one than any other on the schedule — including conference games.

A crazed atmosphere is expected in Laramie, site of many previous BYU beatdowns of the beloved gold and brown. Picked sixth in the MW, the Cowboys do have some talent, most notably tight end John Michael Gyllenborg, OL Jack Walsh and DT Jordan Bertagnole.

10. At Arizona State

This will be ASU’s homecoming game, but don’t be surprised if BYU fans take over Mountain America Stadium in Tempe when the Sun Devils face BYU on Nov. 23. That could especially happen if ASU is merely playing out the schedule, like what happened last year.

Picked 16th in the Big 12, the Devils are coming off a 3-9 season, including a 55-3 loss at Utah last November.

11. Houston

Will a bowl bid be on the line when the red-clad Cougars pay a visit to the blue-clad Cougars in a regular-season finale on Nov. 30? Houston has a new coach — Willie Fritz — but a returning starting quarterback, Donovan Smith, so it could exceed expectations in 2024.

Picked 15th in the Big 12, Houston had many of the same problems as BYU in its first season in the conference — trouble running the football, and stopping the run.

12. Southern Illinois

Two words for anyone who believes this will be a gimme for BYU: Sam Houston.

Last year, BYU barely beat the FBS newcomers 14-0 in Provo, and needed some late heroics from freshman RB LJ Martin to get the job done.

The Salukis are picked to finish fourth in the Missouri Valley standings, behind three fellow FCS powers: South Dakota State, North Dakota State and South Dakota.