Farmers’ Almanac offers potentially positive outlook for Utah this winter

After back-to-back above-normal annual snowpack collections, can Utah pull it off another productive winter?

The Farmers' Almanac thinks it's possible.

Winter might be a little more than four months away, but the now 206-year-old weather periodical released its 2025 Winter Extended Weather Forecast this week. It calls on average temperatures and precipitation for most of the Southwest, including Utah; however, it adds parts of the Southwest may also be "on track for a winter with average to below-average precipitation."

Some parts of the state — primarily northeast Utah — could end up with cold temperatures and average snowfall, mirroring trends for the Rocky Mountains and upper Midwest.

Overall, its authors expect a La Niña oceanic pattern will produce conditions that are "wet and cold for most locations" across the country.

"The Southwest will see average winter temperatures, while the Pacific Northwest will be unseasonably chilly," it wrote. "Southwest and South Central states are on track for a winter with average to below-average precipitation, according to our winter weather forecast."

Of course, experts have been skeptical in the past about the vague methods the Farmers' Almanac and the Old Farmer's Almanac use to make projections. The Farmers' Almanac takes into account things like "sunspot cycles, solar activity, tidal forces and even the reversal of winds in the stratosphere over the equator," according to its website .

A 2010 University of Illinois study of its competitor — the Old Farmer's Almanac — found it was right about half the time. Per Scientific American , both projected a cold and wet winter for the U.S. last year. It was the warmest winter on record, but total precipitation was nearly an inch above average, the National Centers for Environmental Information reported at the end of the season .

"Baseball legend Yogi Berra once famously said, 'it's tough to make predictions, especially about the future.' This sentiment holds true for long-range weather forecasts, according to most atmospheric scientists," the periodical writes.

The National Weather Service Climate Prediction Center, which uses a mix of oceanic patterns and historic climate trends, normally releases its winter outlook in mid-November. But the agency issued an update last week explaining that ENSO-neutral conditions — when the oceanic pattern is neither La Niña or El Niño — will likely remain in place into the early fall before a La Niña pattern returns.

Both La Niña and El Niño don't impact Utah much. Each pattern has a larger influence on weather in areas north and south of the Beehive State instead. The last three La Niña winters exemplify how wide-ranging its impacts can be for Utah:

• 2022-2023: 27 degrees (0.6 degrees below average); 5.78 inches of precipitation (2.24 inches above average); record 30-inch snowpack.
• 2021-2022: 30.1 degrees (2.5 degrees above average); 3.05 inches of precipitation (0.49 inches below average); below-average 12-inch snowpack.
• 2020-2021: 29.2 degrees (1.6 degrees above average); 2.34 inches of precipitation (1.20 inches below average); below-average 12.1-inch snowpack.

Whatever the case this winter will bring, it's clear some Utahns are ready for winter. Park City Mountain Resort officials announced Wednesday the ski resort plans to open on Nov. 22, pending weather conditions. Utah's other resorts also typically open in November.

Winter also plays a vital role in Utah’s water availability. About 95% of the state’s water supply comes from the winter snowpack collection and spring snowmelt process.