Trump to benefit if RFK drops out, Utah and national polls show

New national and Utah polls show if Robert F. Kennedy Jr. drops out of the presidential race as expected on Friday, Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump will likely benefit the most.

Kennedy is set to announce plans for his independent presidential run in Phoenix, not far from where Trump will hold a rally later that day.

A former Democrat, Kennedy launched an independent bid after he said he was kept from competing in a primary against President Joe Biden, who has since decided not to run for a second term, making way for Vice President Kamala Harris, who officially became the Democratic nominee for president this week at the Democratic National Convention.

A national Deseret News/HarrisX poll conducted at the beginning of August shows Kennedy languishing at the national level, with about 8% support. But he performs much better in Utah, a new Deseret News/Hinckley Institute of Politics poll conducted by HarrisX shows, where he has 15% support.

Without Kennedy, Trump benefits both at the national and state level.

Trump vs. Harris — who benefits if Kennedy drops out?

The Deseret News/HarrisX national poll, conducted August 2-3 among 1,011 registered voters, showed Donald Trump at 47% and Kamala Harris at 45%, with 9% of voters saying they were unsure.

In a three-way race between Trump, Harris and Kennedy, Trump’s support drops to 42%, while Harris’ drops only one point to 44%, and Kennedy picks up 8% of voter’s support. Another 7% said they were unsure who they would vote for.

Breaking Kennedy’s support down along party lines shows him with 6% support among Republicans, versus 3% of Democrats and 15% of independent voters.

The Deseret News/HarrisX poll has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.1 percentage points.

Trump way out ahead, but Kennedy enjoys support of 15% of voters in Utah

In Utah, Trump is the clear front-runner whether just against Harris, or against both Harris and Kennedy.

In a head to head matchup against Harris, Trump garners 60% of the vote compared to 28% for Harris. Another 12% of voters say they’re unsure who they’ll vote for.

When facing just Harris, Trump enjoys support among majorities of men and women, young and older voters, white and Hispanic voters, and among Latter-day Saint voters. The few categories where he lags behind Harris includes voters who identify and liberal and those who are atheists or agnostics.

But while Trump is still well ahead when Kennedy is also on the ballot, Kennedy pulls more voters away from Trump than from Harris.

After visiting the state several times since announcing his independent presidential run, Kennedy has managed to garner the support 15% of Utah voters, according to the Deseret News/Hinckley Institute poll.

In a three-way race between Trump, Harris and Kennedy, Trump’s support drops to 51%, while Harris drops to 25%, and Kennedy captures 15%. Another 9% say they’re unsure.

Kennedy pulls some Republican voters from Trump, while eroding his support more significantly among independent voters.

Dritan Nesho, CEO of HarrisX, said if Kennedy drops out and endorses Trump it will be “welcome news for the GOP candidate in Utah and nationally.”

“Independent voters that support RFK are ambivalent about both Trump and Harris, and may yet shift, but today they are coming out of Trump‘s pocket marginally more than Harris’s, as reflected in our latest August Utah poll with the Hinkley Institute and Deseret News — 11 points from Trump and 7 points from Harris’ voter pool,” he said.

Nesho said a separate poll they conducted for Harvard University shows some of Kennedy’s voters could shift to other candidates based on his endorsement.

“Nationally, a poll we conducted with Harvard University in July suggests that RFK’s endorsement does sway about 10% of his base in either direction and can contribute up to 2 percent total vote share to either candidate — small, but potentially significant in such a tight race,” Nesho said.