College Football 25 simulation: Who wins when Utah hosts Baylor?

Note: With EA Sports’ College Football 25 bringing college football back to the video game world, the Deseret News is simulating every Utah game against an FBS opponent this season.

Utah’s first matchup against a Big 12 team after joining the conference won’t count in the league standings.

That’s because Utah and Baylor agreed to the series long before the Utes accepted an invitation to join the Big 12 last year, and with time constraints, it was difficult to try and find a suitable schedule replacement on short notice.

The Utes are heavily favored to beat the Bears, and are expected to handily defeat them after the two teams met in Waco, Texas, last year and Utah had to rally to win.

The Utes, now much healthier than last year, are considered a favorite to make the College Football Playoff in 2024, though, and this one is expected to be an easier game for Utah.

Baylor, meanwhile, is fighting for Dave Aranda’s job after two frustrating seasons.

So, how does Utah match up with Baylor? The schools meet Saturday afternoon at Rice-Eccles Stadium.

The Deseret News ran a simulation of the game on EA Sports College Football 25, and it had some surprises.

How the simulation was set up

There were a few ground rules in place: The simulation used 12-minute quarters — with the option to adjust that if necessary in future simulations — and I let the computer simulate the game with no user interference.

Injuries and depth chart changes were also implemented.

Utah cornerback Kenan Johnson was removed from the depth chart, after his season-ending injury in the Utes’ season opener last week, and defensive tackle Aliki Vimahi was pushed down the depth chart after his injury in the opener.

There were no Baylor personnel moves, after the Bears came out relatively healthy from their season opener.

I also adjusted each team’s uniforms to what they’ll wear in the real game — Utah is going with an all-red motif topped with the drum and feather helmet, while Baylor is going all white for the contest.

How did the simulation between Utah and Baylor play out?

Final score: Utah 20, Baylor 17

Key play: With less than a minute left in the first half, Baylor was moving the ball and had it near midfield trailing 10-3.

Baylor quarterback Dequan Finn threw a pass into the flat, and Zemaiah Vaughn made an excellent break on the ball, intercepting the pass. He had a clear lane in front of him, returning the pick 48 yards for a touchdown with 31 seconds until halftime.

That play set the tone for how both offenses approached the second half, as Utah held a two-score lead.

How the game transpired: Utah easily marched down the field on its opening drive, using a nice mix of both the pass and run — including jet sweeps and quarterback keepers — to move the ball 82 yards.

Micah Bernard, who had a monster game (more on that in a minute), capped the drive with a diving 1-yard touchdown run to give Utah the early 7-0 lead.

After a couple empty possessions — one for each team — Baylor had its first solid drive of the game and scored on a 24-yard field goal early in the second quarter.

Utah responded with its own field goal drive later in the quarter, making it 10-3 on a short 19-yard field goal from Cole Becker.

Bernard moved the sticks on the drive with runs of 31 and 27 yards, and Cam Rising smartly used a QB keeper to get the ball to the Baylor 4. Three unsuccessful passes inside the 5, though, forced the short field goal.

Utah had a chance to add to its lead in the third quarter, but Becker just missed a 51-yard field goal on a promising drive cut short by some questionable play calling.

Baylor eventually capitalized and made it a one-score game late in the third with a 12-play, 80-yard drive that ended with a Michael Trigg 14-yard touchdown catch.

Despite Utah never trailing, the Bears kept it close and tied the game in the fourth quarter on a 79-yard touchdown pass to Ketron Johnson Jr. when he got behind the Utah coverage and Finn hit the open receiver in stride with 3:30 to play.

That set up the key drive of the contest, when Rising expertly drove the Utes down field for a go-ahead field goal. He completed a 34-yard pass to Brant Kuithe on third down to move the ball to the Baylor 46, then hit Money Parks with a 12-yard pass to move into field goal position.

With 1:50 to play, Becker hit a 45-yard field goal after the drive stalled near the 30.

Baylor never seriously threatened to tie the game on the ensuing possession, as Connor O’Toole sacked Finn to help stall the drive and Smith Snowden intercepted a desperation pass to end the game.

Star players: As mentioned, Bernard was the star in this one. He rushed for 153 yards on a whopping (and unrealistic) 41 carries.

As a result, Rising only threw for 116 yards on 9 of 13 passing, and he had a pass intercepted in the first half on a tipped pass. Parks had 47 yards receiving, while Kuithe added 41.

O’Toole and Keanu Tanuvasa had timely second-half sacks to thwart Baylor drives.

Finn threw for 312 yards and two touchdowns for Baylor, but he also had two costly interceptions.

His favorite target was Jackson, who had six catches for 136 yards and the long touchdown to tie the game.

Final stats: The Bears ended the game with 355 total yards to 301 for Utah in a mostly defensive struggle.

A lot of Baylor’s yards came on a couple long passes in the second half — otherwise, the Utes kept the Bears offense pinned down.

Utah also won the turnover battle, two to one.

How realistic was the simulation?

My analysis: I was admittedly frustrated watching the ultra conservative Utah offense in this one, particularly from the second quarter on.

It felt like the computer went into a different, almost protective mode once the Utes got up by seven, then later 14 points just before the half.

As a result, Utah kept finding itself in third and long situations, and many times the Utes still tried to run in those situations.

That, honestly, kept the score closer than maybe it should have been.

Defensively, things went as expected for Utah. Yes, the Utes had some occasional struggles containing the dual-threat Finn, but on the whole, Utah’s defense locked down when it needed to.