The left-wing New Popular Front (NFP) has pulled off a surprise and come out on top after the second round of the French parliamentary elections, with the far right falling to third place, broadcasters TF1 and France 2 predicted after polls closed on Sunday.
The NFP, a new alliance that has brought together Jean-Luc Mélenchon’s hard-left La France Insoumise (France Unbowed), the Socialist Party, the Communist Party, The Ecologists and several smaller left-leaning groups, is projected to gain 172-215 of the 577 seats in the lower house, or National Assembly.
President Emmanuel Macron's centrist alliance came second and is projected to win 150-180 seats, down from 245.
The far-right National Rally party, which came out on top after the first round, fell to third place, and is expected to take 120-152 seats.
If the projections are correct, no camp is likely to achieve an absolute majority of 289 seats.
National Rally suffered from a coordinated campaign by the second and third-placed groups in the first round, who did a deal in some 200 seats to put forward one candidate in the hopes of keeping the far-right candidate out.
What happens next is unclear for the time being. The result gives rise to various future scenarios: The left could try to gain support from the centrist forces - either as a minority government under a confidence-and-supply arrangement with other parties or in a kind of grand coalition. In view of the opposing political orientations, however, it is not clear whether this could succeed.
It is unclear whether President Macron would be politically forced to appoint a prime minister from the ranks of the left in such a scenario. The National Assembly has the power to topple the government.
With a prime minister from the left, Macron would have to share power under an arrangement known in France as cohabitation. The prime minister would become more important.
What this would mean for Germany and Europe is unclear. The left-wing alliance is divided and holds very different positions on many major political issues.
Should none of the camps find a governing majority, the current government could remain in office as a transitional government or a government of technocrats could be appointed. In such a scenario, France would be threatened with political gridlock.
There was a high turnout in Sunday's decisive second round of France's parliamentary elections.
Voter turnout was 59.71% by 5 pm (1500 GMT), according to the Interior Ministry in Paris, up from 38.11% at the same time of the last election in 2022. In the first round a week ago the overall turnout was 66.71%. According to the television channel BFMTV, this could be the highest voter turnout since 1997.
According to the broadcaster FranceInfo, several shops on the upmarket Champs-Elysées boulevard in Paris had been barricaded in anticipation of riots if National Rally had won.
The security forces have prepared for possible unrest, with 30,000 police officers mobilized and 5,000 officers deployed in Paris and its suburbs alone, as previously announced by Interior Minister Gérald Darmanin.
Boosted by general dissatisfaction with the Macron administration, National Rally topped the European Parliament elections in June with 31.36% of the vote, leading Macron to call the snap parliamentary polls.
There are more than two years to go until the next round of presidential elections in 2027, which Le Pen is favoured to win. Macron cannot run again.
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