Biden campaign has its eye on North Carolina

Standing on the tarmac at Raleigh-Durham International Airport just after midnight Friday, Durham Mayor Leonardo Williams knew he needed to spark some energy for the arrival of President Biden after a disastrous debate performance hours earlier.

Why it matters: It was a critical moment for Biden. His scheduled Raleigh rally the following afternoon, here in the capital of a swing state his campaign is prioritizing, would be pivotal to prove he still has it in him to run for president.

• So Williams organized a dance party at 2am on the tarmac.

About 200 people, a DJ and a marching band awaited the president. Williams said he greeted Biden coming off Air Force One and walked with him while he greeted the crowd for an hour.

• "Mr. President, you sucked tonight," Williams said he told the president at the airport. "But I know you're going to do better."
• "We're going to bounce back," Biden told Williams later. "That's what we do."

Driving the news: Biden's rally in Raleigh Friday was largely viewed as a success at a moment when his campaign desperately needed a win. Top Democrats and White House officials indicated to Axios they were elated by his energy here.

The big picture: It's no coincidence that North Carolina was the state Biden chose to visit in the early morning hours after the debate — his fourth visit this year alone.

• The 2024 race for president runs through our state, as Democratic Gov. Roy Cooper previously noted .
• Biden's latest visit underscores how important his campaign believes it is for the president's path to victory in November. The campaign quickly released an ad with clips from the Raleigh speech.

The intrigue: Biden's battle here is uphill, however: Not only must he ease concerns about his age and tamp down calls to step aside after his meandering debate performance , no Democrat presidential candidate has won the state since former President Obama in 2008.

• But if Biden were to take North Carolina in November, most Republicans agree it would significantly narrow Trump's pathway to victory, the AP notes .

What they're saying: "This was the state that Biden has come to right after the debate — he's making a point that this is the state we have to have," Duke political science professor Michael Munger told Reuters .

• "And maybe he should have picked one that was a little bit easier."

What's happening: The Biden campaign views North Carolina as one of its best shots for gaining a state it didn't win in 2020. Trump won here by 1.3 percentage points four years ago, and the state's population has grown by nearly 400,000 people since then.

• In addition to Biden's four visits in 2024, Vice President Kamala Harris has visited the state five times this year . And Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg spent two days in the state this week touting infrastructure investments made possible by Biden policies.
• Biden's campaign has 18 field offices in counties throughout North Carolina so far.
• The campaign has hired an estimated 100 staffers — a number it expects to double in the next month.
• Biden and his backers had also spent an estimated $5.2 million in digital, radio and television advertisements in North Carolina as of June 19, the Wall Street Journal reported.

The other side: Trump's campaign meanwhile, had spent no money on ads as of that date — a likely sign his campaign sees the state as safely Republican, per WSJ.

• Trump's campaign also has fewer field offices, at more than a dozen, NCGOP spokesperson Matt Mercer said. Mercer also noted that the party had a more robust infrastructure to support the former president's campaign already in place.
• "Democrats abandoned their field program in 2020 and are trying to make up for lost time by standing up a bunch of offices," Mercer told Axios. "Republicans have had veteran staff in the state for years at this point and are capitalizing on longstanding relationships in counties."

Zoom in: One area the Biden campaign has emphasized is reaching out to independents and Republican voters in suburban counties like Union and Johnston.

• They see Nikki Haley voters, 23.3% of the GOP primary voters in North Carolina, as potentially changing their votes to Biden and chipping away at Trump's margins.
• Union County was an especially strong area of Haley voters, with 25.2% of GOP voters there going for her.

But increasing turnout in Democratic strongholds like Mecklenburg, Guilford and Durham counties remains one of the bedrocks of the campaign.

• "It's on us at the local level, now, if you're supporting him," Williams told Axios, noting Biden's policies have brought tens of millions of dollars to his city. "I'm supporting him, and I'm going to do my part in getting Durham to show out even more than it has in the past."