Fentanyl will flow north despite arrest of ‘El Mayo,’ expert says

EL PASO, Texas (Border Report) – The arrest of Ismael “El Mayo” Zambada and Joaquin Guzman Lopez is a major blow against the leadership of a criminal organization identified by U.S. authorities as the top exporter of fentanyl to American communities.

But it won’t cause the Sinaloa cartel to crumble nor disrupt in a major way the flow of fentanyl and other illicit drugs to the United States in the long term.

So says a former lawman once in charge of agents keeping drugs from coming over the border wall and holding the line against illegal immigration in West Texas, New Mexico and Eastern Arizona.

“The instability of losing a leader isn’t as impactful as it was 15 years ago. You can absorb this kind of impact better because (the cartel) is not relying on one person anymore,” said Victor M. Manjarrez Jr., former U.S. Border Patrol chief agent in El Paso, Texas, and Tucson, Arizona.

He was referring to Thursday’s arrest in El Paso of Zambada and Guzman Lopez. Federal officials have long identified Zambada as the co-founder of the Sinaloa cartel; Guzman Lopez is one of the sons of jailed drug lord Joaquin “El Chapo” Guzman.

The cartel survived the extradition of “El Chapo” to the United States in 2017. That’s because major drug trafficking organizations today are more like businesses than a gang where the boss micromanages all operations on the street, Manjarrez said.

“They have adopted a franchise model. Think of a fast-food restaurant: The (corporation) doesn’t run a lot of restaurants, they sell the brand, they collect on the rights,” he said. “Sinaloa or Jalisco go to local areas and say they find a group that’s into fuel theft or drugs or whatever, they take over that gang or put in (their own people) and they become subcontractors associated with a larger brand.”

Those local groups will continue to conduct their activities and pay the “corporation” regardless of who the perceived chairman is. The arrests may prompt cartel operatives to “lay low” for a while, but not for long.

There also might be some jockeying for power, but it is likely to be localized. Current markets “in flux” are located in central and western Mexico (Guanajuato, Michoacan, Guerrero and Jalisco). Control of cartel plazas (cities) is more clearly defined in border states, he said.

“I think there will be a very short wait-and-see period,” in Sinaloa cartel fentanyl production, Manjarrez said. “But there is just way too much money involved. The production will continue.”

Fentanyl and other synthetic drugs such as methamphetamine are extremely profitable for the cartels compared to traditional illicit substances like heroin, which depends on the growing of opium poppies, or cocaine, which comes from a coca tree that must be tended to year-round.

“What I’m saying is the people on the street are not going to notice the difference,” Manjarrez said. “As long as we continue to treat it just like a law-enforcement problem, we’ll be talking about this for decades. It is also a social problem. If we can reduce demand, I think we can reduce supply.”

It’s an analogy similar to government plans to address illegal immigration by reducing poverty and other root causes of displacement, or in the case of drugs, why people feel the need to consume drugs or become involved in drug trafficking.

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