Pageau Buyout Doesn't Make Sense For Islanders

Despite an exponential salary cap increase from $83.5 million in 2023-24 to $88 million for the 2024-25 season, the New York Islanders still need to clear cap space if they are interested in landing a top-flight free agent.

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Now, there are ways to save money, with using one of the two second-round picks to rid themselves of an undesirable contract certainly an option, or including one of those contracts in a player-for-player trade.

Another option is going the buyout route.

Forty-eight hours after the Stanley Cup Final concludes, teams will have until June 30 at 5 PM to buy out contracts.

This past week, The Athletic and The Daily Faceoff have included Islanders forward Jean-Gabriel Pageau as a potential buyout option.

It's no secret that Pageau is a valuable player to the Islanders, relied upon to shut down the league's best, win key draws, and play on both special-team units.

But, given the lack of offense and his overall struggles in 2023-24, Pageau wasn't good enough for a player making $5 million a year and he's on the books through 2025-26.

Related: What Losing Pageau Would Mean For Islanders, How Value Has Changed

If the Islanders went the buyout route, they would save $2.5 million of the remaining $10 million owed.

Since Pageau is over 26, a buyout would be two-thirds of what is owed ($10 million) at double the years remaining (2).

Here's the breakdown, per CapFriendly:

Given that the Islanders currently have under $6.5 million in available cap space, every penny counts for a team that needs to upgrade.

In theory, if Pageau was bought out, the Islanders could kick off free agency with over $9 million in space before inking any of their restricted and unrestricted free agents.

Good amount of money, right?

Saving money is important, especially in the long term, with Noah Dobson and Alexander Romanov needing extensions, along with Brock Nelson and potentially Kyle Palmieri, whose contracts come to an end following the 2024-25 season.

But, realistically, buying out Pageau doesn't make sense for the Islanders.

For starters, the Islanders did receive calls regarding Pageau around the 2024 NHL trade deadline, per The Athletic's Arthur Staple .

Pageau has a modified no-trade clause with a 16-team no-trade list.

Although months have passed and some teams have filled that need, there likely are still suitors for Pageau's skill sets.

If the Islanders could move the entirety of his contract in a deal, then that would make more sense than buying him out and keeping him on the books.

However, we've seen often where teams have to retain up to 50 percent, which would mean the Islanders could be paying a team $2.5 million annually to take on Pageau.

Buying him out would save $250,000 as opposed to a trade at 50 percent retention.

If Pageau has a positive value, trading him certainly makes sense, as the Islanders can recoup assets that can be used to acquire others or bolster their prospect pool.

If he has negative value or teams just understand the Islanders' situation and want to exploit it, the Islanders will have to use an asset, likely a pick, to move his deal.

As mentioned, the Islanders do have an extra second-round pick, which they acquired in a deal with the Chicago Blackhawks on May 24.

Related: Two Reasons Why Islanders May Have Made Draft Pick Deal With Chicago

Let's say that the Islanders weighed their options and thought buying Pageau out made the most sense.

With Kyle MacLean's emergence this past season and likely earning under $1 million a year on his qualifying offer (RFA) and Casey Cizikas on the books at $2.5 million annually through 2026-27, they have center options if they lose Pageau.

But, is MacLean a perfect replacement for Pageau after just one season?

Is there a perfect replacement for Pageau if they lose him?

How much would a Pageau replacement be?

The market for bottom-six players this summer will certainly be a big one, especially with the cap rising exponentially. That means bids and potential higher annual values on deals.

So, even if the Islanders try to save money with the buyout, most of the saved money will be used to add another body to the roster.

Since Islanders general manager Lou Lamoriello arrived on Long Island in July of 2018, he has yet to buy out a single player.

If he didn't buy out Josh Bailey , whose final year of his contract at $5 million was dealt to the Chicago Blackhawks on Day 2 of the 2023 NHL Draft, it's rather unlikely he would buy out Pageau.

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