How will Mercyhurst football fare in its first Division I season? FCS writers chime in

Western Pennsylvania was the talk of Northeast Conference football media day.

Half of the NEC’s eight football members now populate the region. It’s the home of NEC powers Duquesne, Robert Morris and St. Francis (PA), which were picked, respectively, to finish top three in the conference in 2024.

The fourth NEC program in western PA, however, was also a source of discussion. Albeit clouded in uncertainty.

How will Mercyhurst University football fare in its first NCAA Division I season as part of the Football Championship Subdivision (FCS)? A potential answer for that question was not offered Wednesday at media day.

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Mercyhurst was not included among the NEC’s 2024 preseason poll . The Lakers only have four conference games scheduled for this fall, meaning they’ll make their poll debut in 2025.

No Mercyhurst players were included on preseason all-NEC offensive, defensive or special teams’ units, and little speculation was offered regarding the Lakers’ immediate on-field chances.

How, then, can fans expect Mercyhurst football to fare in year one? Two writers who cover FCS football nationally offered their opinions.

More: Mercyhurst coaches ready for challenge of Division I competition, recruiting in NEC

One-bid league

Thirteen conferences and 129 teams populate the FCS.

Among them, a 24-team postseason bracket is selected, including each conference champion.

Big Sky and Missouri Valley Football Conference teams dominate. The NEC, however, is perenially viewed as a “one bid” conference.

“The (NEC) isn’t viewed strongly enough to get an at-large bid into the FCS playoffs,” said Sam Herder, who has covered FCS football since 2012 and is currently the senior FCS analyst for HERO Sports . “Ranking conferences can be tough, but the NEC is probably considered a bottom three conference in the FCS. Part of that is because of the scholarships.”

FCS programs are allotted 63 scholarships by the NCAA. The NEC, however, limits its members to 45.

Whether scholarships are to blame or not, the NEC struggles in the FCS playoffs.

The conference’s last postseason victory came via Duquesne in 2018. Play within the NEC, however, is usually competitive.

“The transfer portal is one of the main points you can look at because you have teams like Duquesne using it every single year,” said Stan Becton, who has covered FCS football for the NCAA since 2021. “Given the FBS transfers and things of that nature, I think it will be hard for (Mercyhurst) to compete this year from a talent, physicality and size perspective. But I think they can definitely win some games in that conference.”

Mixed results elsewhere

How have other football programs fared after transitioning into the FCS? It’s been a mixed bag recently, Herder said.

“It all depends on how programs want to transition,” Herder said. “You have four years as a transitioning program, and some teams might want to take those four years to build a fully resourced and funded football program.”

Facilities, support staffing and salaries are among the biggest differences between D-II and D-I programs. With expanded resources, though, comes increased potential.

Comparing resources: Will Mercyhurst sports fit in with other Northeast Conference teams? What key stats say

Successful transitioners such as Merrimack, which reached the NEC title game last year in its first postseason-eligible season, exist as promising examples. Struggling newcomers, however, also prove cautionary.

“The biggest challenge every year comes down to recruiting,” Mercyhurst head coach Ryan Riemedio said on media day. “When we finished spring football this year, we talked about leveling up.”

Mercyhurst’s location in football-crazed Pennsylvania, Becton said, could help. He referenced nine-time FCS national champion North Dakota State – which joined the sub-division in 2004 – as proof that winning immediately is possible.

“Just because you join doesn’t mean you need 20 years to make the playoffs,” Becton said. “One full cycle of recruits can get you to that conference championship-level team.”

Quarterback play could be key

One trait of immediately successful FCS programs? Quality quarterback play.

“The physicality that comes with the offensive and defensive lines, you have to recruit that,” Becton said. “You can’t really get that in one year. You can be a talented Division II team, but the FCS guys are there for a reason. If you have a strong, steady signal caller under center, that can really help ease the transition.”

Adam Urena , a senior, is expected to again start at QB for Mercyhurst after a season in which he posted 2,651 passing yards, 23 touchdowns and 13 interceptions. He’ll lead Mercyhurst into its season opener at Wheeling (W.V.) Aug. 29, and at Howard – Mercyhurst’s first D-I opponent of the season – the following week.

“If you can get above .500, I think that’s a positive,” Herder said. “Even if you are 7-5 and four of your seven wins aren’t against Division I teams, you’re winning games and can sell that to recruits.”

Howard, a run-heavy team and the defending Mid-Eastern Athletic Conference champion, will immediately test Mercyhurst’s physicality. A Week 4 trip to Montana State, meanwhile, will show the Lakers one of the FCS’ top crowd atmospheres.

Full 2024 schedule: NEC football: Five things to know about Mercyhurst's 2024 schedule

“(Mercyhurst) isn’t expected to compete for a conference title right away and three or four wins in this first year would be a good season for them,” Becton said. “Even if they can land an upset late in the season and knock off a team that’s trying to make a run at the playoffs, that would make for a good season.”

Contact Jeff Uveino at juveino@timesnews.com . Follow him on X, formerly Twitter, @realjuveino .

This article originally appeared on Erie Times-News: How will Mercyhurst football fare in its first Division I season? FCS writers chime in