Preseason Props That Pop: Which lines are set too low?

Fantasy fans are a passionate bunch. We love planting flags (sometimes more than seeing them). Whether it's drawing up a list of "my guys" or committing to memory our "never again(s)," the excitement of an upcoming season always results in forming strong opinions.

Prop bets can work as an outlet for these fervent fantasy feelings. They allow managers to double down on enthusiastic takes while also providing potential context for a player's season-long projection.

What needs to happen for quarterbacks to reach their passing yards totals? What can running backs do to improve on last season's rushing lines? Will new offensive systems cause pass catchers to fall short of expectations, or exceed them?

Vegas has questions, we have answers.

Here are our favorite preseason props that pop.

Bryce Young : Total regular season passing yards OVER 3175.5

Liz: It's hard to hype a player who finished close to the bottom in nearly every passing stat last year. For bettors, however, that means up is the only way to go.

Every aspect of Young's surroundings has improved heading into 2024. Carolina bolstered its offensive line with two signings, adding Robert Hunt and Damien Lewis . The team also gifted Young two playmakers, acquiring a true X receiver in Diontae Johnson and drafting the speedy Xavier Legette (4.39) in the first round. The most notable investment in Young's potential, however, was the hiring of head coach Dave Canales. Lauded as a "quarterback whisperer" because of his success turning around the careers of Geno Smith and Baker Mayfield , Canales could be key to unlocking Young's potential.

These are big changes. But they need to yield only a small amount of production in order to hit the over based on last year's total (2,877 passing yards). Young showed in college that he was an ace processor. Confidence and comfort in Canales' scheme should bring that out in the second-year signal-caller. I expect him to post at least 3,500 passing yards (and significantly boost his 5.5 yards per attempt) in 2024.

Jared Goff Over 4,025.5 passing yards (-115)

Daniel: Jared Goff has been a man of consistency over the last two seasons, as he is the only QB to have at least 4,400 passing yards and 29 passing touchdowns over that span. I know Detroit has a penchant for running the football given their top-ranked offensive line and dynamic one-two punch of Jahmyr Gibbs and David Montgomery , but the Lions aren't afraid to let Goff cook.

Last season, he was second in passing yards, attempts and completions. OC Ben Johnson is back for another year of calling plays and the offense hasn't changed much, outside of increased expectations for Jameson Williams in the WR2 role. All-in-all, we should see a very similar offense to what we saw in 2023.

One last Goff fact, some quarterbacks have a lower passing upside because they have the ability to create plays by using their legs. Even if they're not a Lamar Jackson -type scrambler, many QBs will extend plays with their legs given how mobile the position has become.

Well, I don't know how to say this kindly, but you don't have to worry about Goff stealing away yardage from his passing total due to his legs because he DOESN'T run the football. Over the last two seasons, he's 47th amongst QBs with 97 rushing yards and that won't change in 2024. There are a lot of things to like about this line, so give me the over on 4,025.5 passing yards for Goff.

Chris Godwin : Total regular season receiving yards OVER 850.5

Liz: Chris Godwin's recent issue has been finding the end zone, not racking up receiving yards. The 28-year-old has gone over 1,000 yards in four of his past five campaigns. Godwin proved he didn't need Tom Brady to produce, leading the Bucs' receiving corps in catches (83) while regularly thriving after the catch (385 yards after catch, WR17).

With new offensive coordinator Liam Coen (a Sean McVay acolyte) at the helm, Godwin figures to move inside more frequently. While that means a potential dip in yards per route run, it also figures to yield an uptick in efficiency. The slot is where Godwin does his best work. In fact, the vet's most productive efforts have come when he has managed a slot share percentage above 55% (2020, 2021, 2022). Assuming he stays healthy (he managed a full 17-game slate in 2023), Godwin figures to be in line for another season of 900-plus receiving yards.

Garrett Wilson Over 1075.5 receiving yards (-120)

Daniel: Nobody's had a more frustrating quarterback situation over his first two years in the league than Garrett Wilson (although Drake London is a close second). During his first two seasons, Wilson was fourth in targets, piling up a massive 315 opportunities with subpar QB play. Only Davante Adams , Tyreek Hill and CeeDee Lamb saw more targets over that span. Unfortunately, targets don't always equal production, as Wilson ranked 76th out of 84 qualified WRs in receptions per target over that span.

Enter Aaron Rodgers .

With Rodgers under center and back to full health, Wilson will see a much different level of QB play, allowing him to maximize his potential within this Jets offense. While the Jets added to the receiver room with Mike Williams and Malachi Corley , the majority of targets will continue to flow through Wilson.

I don't want to fully compare him to Adams, but we've seen what Rodgers can do when he has an all-world talent at his disposal. It's tough to call it a year three breakout, but Garrett Wilson should exceed this line given his massive target share and improved QB play. Give me the over on 1075.5 receiving yards.

Alvin Kamara : Total regular season rushing yards OVER 650.5

Liz: Kamara has managed an opportunity share above 70% for three straight seasons. While his efficiency as a rusher has declined over the years, he remains the undisputed RB1 in the Saints' offense. There's no reason to believe he won't register another 14 carries per contest (an average he has cleared every year since 2021), particularly given Kendre Miller 's injury woes and Jamaal Williams ' lack of versatility.

Furthermore, Kamara has recorded at least 690 rushing yards in each campaign of his seven-year career, including two efforts in which he was active for only 13 games. Noting an expected uptick in tempo via new offensive coordinator Klint Kubiak 's scheme, Kamara figures to rush for upward of 800 yards. He's being overlooked in betting and fantasy circles.

Derrick Henry : Total regular season rushing touchdowns OVER 10.5 (-130)

Daniel: Do you know how bad it was last year for Derrick Henry in Tennessee? The Titans were 28th in total yards per game, 26th in points per game and nobody saw more eight-man fronts than Henry did. He ran against loaded boxes on 35% of his runs in 2023 and, in spite of that, he still finished with double-digit touchdowns.

Now he's free from Tennessee and in Baltimore where he'll be running with a Ravens offense that ranked first in rushing yards per game and second in points per game. This is the same offense that helped Gus Edwards score 13 touchdowns last year. If Edwards can hit double-digit rushing touchdowns, then Henry has a shot to blow past that number with ease, especially given his historical touchdown production. Since 2008, only one player has six consecutive seasons with 10 or more rushing touchdowns, and now he's primed to make it seven in a row within this new Ravens offense. That's what I'm taking the over on 10.5 rushing TDs for King Henry.

Jake Ferguson : Total regular season receiving yards OVER 675.5

Liz: Ferguson might not have elite measurables, but his situation is top notch. Filling the void left by Dalton Schultz , Ferguson emerged as Dak Prescott 's second-favorite target, logging a 71-761-5 regular-season stat line in 2023. He also demonstrated a surprising ceiling during the playoffs, converting 10 of 12 balls for 93 yards and three scores in the Cowboys' wild-card loss to the Packers.

With zero notable pass-catchers added (and Brandin Cooks entering his age 31 season), the Wisconsin product should feast again in 2024. Projected to draw 90-plus looks, Ferguson figures to record at least 70 grabs. Even at 10 yards per reception, the third-year tight end should post 700 receiving yards with ease.

Dalton Kincaid : Total regular season receiving yards OVER 750.5 (-115)

Daniel: Well, 240 targets just opened up in the Buffalo Bills offense with the departure of Stefon Diggs and Gabe Davis , and while everyone's excited about rookie Keon Coleman and the incumbent Khalil Shakir , I believe it's Dalton Kincaid that will lead this team in targets and receiving yards in 2024.

As a rookie, Kincaid saw 94 targets, including six-plus targets in nine of his final eleven games, and turned that into 73 receptions for 673 yards. Now that Diggs and Davis are out of town, Kincaid should take over as the top pass catcher in this Josh Allen -led offense.

A second year leap in production from 673 yards to 750.5 receiving yards not only feels achievable, it almost feels like a lock given that eight different tight ends hit this receiving line in 2023. Not to mention he now has a much clearer path to guaranteed targets. Dalton Kincaid is setup for success in his sophomore season, and while I don't think he's going to chase the record for most receptions for a tight end in a season, it would not shock me if he hit triple digit catches in 2024, which is why I am taking the over on 750.5 receiving yards.