Weather Permitting: Another round of potentially heavy rain in the forecast

It's been a miserable month for heat in the Cape Fear region.

Fayetteville has set two daily high records (both above 100) and four "high-low" marks so far this month. Monday will see another flirtation with 100 degrees, and then — finally — the oppressive heat begins to ease.

Did I mention another round of potentially heavy rain is on the way?

Here's the setup

While some spots in the Cape Fear region have had plenty of rainfall (more than 6 inches in the past two weeks) several parts of the western region are still parched. Hopefully, the next round of rain will be more generous. In the meantime, a stout offshore high-pressure system will hold the Carolinas in its steamy grasp for the next few days.

Temperatures Monday across the region will nudge 100 degrees and the region remains under a heat advisory. Any showers will be the isolated popcorn variety, mainly along the Sea Breeze Line. Overnight lows will linger in the mid-to-upper 70s.

Tuesday will see temperatures dip a bit, but humidity will climb —if that seems possible. It may feel even more miserable with the heat index pushing closer to 110 in the afternoon. There's a greater chance of scattered showers, and lows again will stall in the upper 70s.

Wednesday should see the beginning of a summer monsoonal pattern in the Carolinas. The air will be about as saturated as possible (PWATs in the 2.5-inch range) as the offshore ridge slides east. At the same time, a trough will develop to our west, fueled by cool Canadian air.

All of this combines for cloudy skies on Wednesday afternoon with an increasing chance of showers. Highs will still reach the upper 90s, lows in the upper 70s.

Thursday and Friday are looking wet as of now. The cold front pushes into North Carolina, then stalls. The combination of unsettled air and thick moisture levels should trigger on-and-off showers throughout the day. Temperatures will drop into the 80s but given the moisture, it won't be much of a relief. Best chances of rain slide a bit to the south on Friday with the front.

The weekend

It looks like the front will retreat a bit, which brings more rain chances further north with the greatest chance of rainfall in the afternoon and early evening.

Rain chances are slightly less on Sunday, but there will still be showers around. Look for a high in the upper 80s. When it's all said and done, Fayetteville could easily see more than 4 inches of rain, with higher totals in the region under slow-moving cells.

Down the road

The Cape Fear region will be a bit cooler and wetter than in weeks past. Look for highs in Fayetteville of about 90, with a higher chance of afternoon showers — a typical Sandhill summer pattern.

In the tropics

All is quiet as unfriendly conditions and thick Sahara dust stifle any potential development. Looks like a calm stretch heading into late July.

Got a weather question?Chick Jacobs can be reached at ncweatherhound@gmail.com or NCWeatherhound on X/Twitter.