The biggest races to watch in Florida primary elections

Donald Trump with GOP Senate District 7 candidate David Shoar (Photo from Vote Shoar Facebook page).

Tuesday is primary election day in Florida.

More than 1.9 million Floridians have actually already voted by mail or at the polls going into Election Day (more of that information below), with the biggest race on the ballot the contest for U.S. Senate.

Republican U.S. Sen. Rick Scott is expected to easily be elected by GOP voters to serve as the party’s nominee in November. The 71-year-old Naples resident faces only token opposition in former Democrat Keith Gross and actor John S. Columbus .

Scott has spent zero time speaking about his GOP race and has aimed all of his rhetorical fire on the candidate he believes he will face in November — former Democratic U.S. Rep. Debbie Mucarsel-Powell.

Mucarsel-Powell is considered the likely Democrat to advance on Tuesday night and face Scott in the fall. She’s raised more than $14 million to date, dwarfing the totals of her three opponents. In 2018, she became the first Ecuadorian-American elected to Congress when she won Florida’s 26th Congressional District, encompassing parts of Miami-Dade and the Keys.

But she lost her re-election in 2020 to Carlos Giménez, a former mayor of Miami-Dade County. In this campaign, Mucasel-Powell has received endorsements from dozens of federal and state elected Democratic officials from Florida and by groups like Emily’s List, Planned Parenthood, and the League of Conservation Voters. She was allowed to speak before Joe Biden’s last appearance in Florida earlier this spring.

Her most formidable challenger is tech entrepreneur Stanley Campbell . Although he’s received relatively little media attention and hasn’t raised much cash, Campbell has impressed on the campaign trail and won endorsements from the Florida AFL-CIO and the Democratic Black Caucus of Florida.

Former state Rep. Brian Rush and military veteran Rod Joseph fill out the Democratic slate.

Congress

Twenty Republicans and eight Democrats serve in Florida’s congressional delegation, and most observers consider it highly unlikely that any of those seats will flip from one party to another in November.

Four seats are listed as “competitive” by the Cook Political Report , although they all considered “likely” to stay in the same party’s hands. One of those is in Pinellas County.

Congressional District 13 — Pinellas County — is now held by freshman Republican Anna Paulina Luna, a hard-right conservative lawmaker whose district became much more GOP-leaning after Gov. Ron DeSantis persuaded the Legislature to accept his own redistricting map in 2022.

Five Democrats are running to face Luna in November, with Whitney Fox considered the front-runner, based on endorsements and campaign cash. Although the Democrats contend that Luna’s too conservative for what has historically been a moderate congressional district, the fact is an influx of Republicans over Democrats (more than 55,000 as of Aug. 1) will make this a tough race for any Democrat to overcome in November.

Congressional District 1 — Escambia, Okaloosa, Santa Rosa, and Walton counties.

Considered the most conservative-leaning district and based in Florida’s Panhandle, it’s been held by Matt Gaetz since 2016. He is being challenged by retired Navy pilot Aaron Dimmock in the GOP primary.

The race isn’t expected to be close, with one survey (conducted by Tony Fabrizio, Donald Trump’s pollster) showing Gaetz leading Dimmock by 47 points, 67%-20%. So why has it received so much attention?

It’s because former House Speaker Kevin McCarthy has become involved in trying to oust Gaetz (and the seven other Republicans who voted to remove from his leadership position in 2023). Gaetz was the ringleader, having filed the then little-known “motion to vacate” procedure that ousted McCarthy and resulted in the ascension of Mike Johnson as House Speaker.

A new super PAC aligned with McCarthy called Florida Patriots PAC has spent millions on ads trying to wound Gaetz. One of those ads included allegations that Gaetz paid a minor for sex . Another featured Gaetz’ alleged friendship with Joel Greenberg, the former Seminole County tax collector serving an 11-year sentence in federal prison for child sex trafficking and other offenses.

Dimmock was always considered a long shot, but his campaign has also suffered because despite moving to and campaigning in North Florida, he remains a paid employee with the state of Missouri . The winner will face Democrat Gay Valimont in November.

Legislative races

Senate District 7 – Flagler, Putnam, St. Johns and part of Volusia counties.

In this open Republican primary seat, Tallahassee-based Republicans have rallied around the candidacy of Tom Leek, most recently the Florida House Appropriations Committee chairman, including Ron DeSantis and outgoing House Speaker Paul Renner.

However, one of his opponents, former St. Johns County Sheriff David Shoar, has received the most valued endorsement in any Republican primary these days — from none other than Donald Trump. The former president formally backed Shoar in a social media post earlier this month, and then cut a video ad for the Republican on Sunday.

“A Gulf War Army Veteran, David bravely served our Country, and has continued to fight to protect our Communities as St. Johns County Sheriff,” Trump wrote in his endorsement. “As your next State Senator, David will bring that same fighting Spirit to Bring Back the Great American Dream, Grow the Economy, Stop Inflation, Secure the Border, Support our Brave Military/Vets, Advance Election Integrity, and Protect our always under siege Second Amendment.”

Shoar has also received support from a political committee called “The Truth Matters,” which raised more than $6.5 million against Leek. That PAC has created a website attacking Leek — liberalleek.com .

The Truth Matters has received all of its funding from another political committee called Floridians for Accountability, Freedom, and Opportunity. That group has mostly been funded by attorneys and law firms.

Also on the GOP ballot is Gerry James , a conservative activist who received nearly 44% of the vote from Republican primary voters in 2022 but still finished 12 points behind Travis Hutson, who is leaving the seat this year due to being term limited.

The winner will face Democrat George Anthony “T” Hill II in November.

Senate District 15 – Parts of Orange County

Incumbent Sen. Geraldine Thompson faces former state Sen. Randolph Bracy in a race that has turned negative between the two Orange County Democrats — and is actually open to all voters because no Republicans or independent candidates filed to run in the contest.

Thompson has served in both chambers of the Legislature going back to 2006. That’s when she was first elected to the House and served until 2012. She then ran and won a seat in the Senate, serving from 2012-2016.  She came back to the House in 2018 and 2020, and then ran and won the Senate District 15 seat in 2022.

Randolph Bracy is a business consultant who served in the Florida Legislature from 2012-2022. He served in the House for two terms (2012-2016) before running and winning a seat in the Senate in 2016. He stepped down in 2022 to run for Congress but fell short in a Democratic primary in Congressional District 10 to Maxwell Frost.

Both Democrats have accused each other of not living in the district, according to the Orlando Sentinel . Democratic state Sen. Linda Stewart, who is term-limited this year, told the Sentinel that the contest “is a nasty race,” saying that while both candidates are well qualified for the seat, Bracy’s decision to try to return to the Legislature by running against Thompson has upset fellow Democrats.  The Orange County legislative delegation as whole has endorsed Thompson.

Senate District 25 – Osceola and parts of Orange County

This seat is being vacated this fall by Democratic incumbent Victor Torres due to term limits.

Among the three Democrats vying for the seat are Carmen Torres, the spouse of Victor, along with state Rep. Kristen Arrington and former U.S. Rep. Alan Grayson.

Arrington has represented Kissimmee in the Florida House since 2020. Torres is an Orlando community activist making her first run for public office. And Grayson is a former representative from the Kissimmee area who has had a string of losses in primary elections over the past eight years.

Grayson served two separate times in Congress representing Osceola County (from 2009-2011 and again 2013-2017). He ran and lost to Patrick Murphy in the race for U.S. Senate in 2016. He then lost to Darren Soto in the Democratic primary for Congress in District 9 in 2018, and lost to Maxwell Frost in Congressional District 10 in 2022. Grayson initially filed to run for U.S. Senate last year before dropping out in June and filing to run for this state Senate seat.

Arrington has raised more than $219,000, Torres has raised more than $121,000, and Grayson has loaned his campaign $181,000.

Other primary elections worth looking at include the Republicans running for supervisor of elections against Republican incumbents, and some school board members targeted by DeSantis for defeat more than a year ago.

As of Monday morning, of the more than 1.9 million of Florida’s 13.6 million voters who had cast ballots by mail or at early voting sites, Republicans had cast more than 47% of those votes, Democrats 40%.