Tropical rainstorm in Caribbean may strengthen, impact Florida

While development of a tropical rainstorm may be slow initially, the feature may strengthen as it approaches Florida this weekend with an uptick in downpours, thunderstorms and surf.

A tropical rainstorm will impact the northern islands of the Caribbean through the end of the week before approaching Florida this weekend when AccuWeather meteorologists believe the system may further organize and strengthen. The scope of rain, wind and sea impacts will depend on the track and strength of the system.

AccuWeather meteorologists began referring to the tropical wave as a tropical rainstorm on Monday to raise public awareness of the situation, including its potential to strengthen into a tropical storm and hurricane. The feature is already producing rain and impacting the northern islands of the Caribbean.

The next name on the list of tropical storms in the Atlantic is Debby. Interests from the northern Caribbean to the eastern Gulf and Atlantic coast of the United States should monitor the rainstorm's progress.

Latest updates on the tropics

On satellite images, the tropical rainstorm, currently near the northeastern islands of the Caribbean, was more organized than at the start of the week but was far from being a tropical depression or tropical storm.

It was still rather elongated on Wednesday stretching across a few hundred miles and was lacking a well-defined center that all tropical depressions and tropical storms have. The system was bringing locally drenching showers and gusty thunderstorms to the Leewards, including the British and United States Virgin Islands, as well as Puerto Rico.

When a defined center of low pressure forms will help forecasters determine the track and speed of strengthening in the days ahead.

"A storm center that remains over or close to the large, mountainous islands of the northern Caribbean from Puerto Rico to Hispaniola and Cuba will tend to keep strengthening at bay," AccuWeather Lead Hurricane Expert Alex DaSilva said, adding, "If the center forms or drifts away from the large islands, then more swift strengthening may be possible."

Impacts in the Caribbean have begun

In the short term, the tropical rainstorm will hug the islands and bring locally torrential downpours that can lead to flash flooding and mudslides, as well as gusty thunderstorms that can trigger sporadic power outages. Enough circulation of the tropical rainstorm may develop to create rough seas and dangerous surf around the islands of the northern Caribbean, the Turks and Caicos and the southern Bahamas as the system pushes westward.

With the tropical rainstorm expected to track near the large islands, rapid strengthening in the short term is unlikely.

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However, toward the weekend, as the system drifts away from Cuba, it may begin to strengthen, and the chance of a tropical depression and full-fledged tropical storm forming will increase.

Risk of strengthening to a tropical depression, tropical storm

How quickly the tropical rainstorm strengthens will likely determine its track relative to Florida and the rest of the southern and eastern U.S. A strengthening storm would bring an increase in wind and rain near the core. At the same time, the overall coverage of showers and thunderstorms may consolidate.

Should it evolve quickly, it will be more likely to track northward along the eastern side of the Florida Peninsula or just offshore over the Atlantic. If it remains relatively weak, then it is more likely to drift toward the eastern Gulf of Mexico. This is why AccuWeather meteorologists have the area from the eastern Gulf of Mexico to the southern Atlantic coastal waters in the development risk at this time.

However, in either of these areas, warm waters could allow the system to gain strength quickly from later this weekend to early next week as the atmosphere will be more moist and disruptive breezes, known as wind shear, will be low.

Florida impacts

Downpours and gusty thunderstorms will spread westward across Cuba and the western islands of the Bahamas on Friday before spreading over the Florida Keys and the southern part of the Florida Peninsula on Saturday.

Along with the potential for urban flooding will be the risk of waterspouts and hazards for beach and boating interests, at the very least.

As the system approaches and begins to strengthen, rip currents will increase in strength and number along the Florida coastline this weekend.

Should the storm stay east of Florida, the rough surf conditions will spread northward along the Atlantic coast. If the center migrates farther to the northwest, then surf conditions will build along the Gulf coast.

Far-away impacts in Eastern US

When a well-established tropical storm or hurricane pushes toward the eastern U.S. from the Atlantic, a band of heavy rain sometimes develops hundreds of miles away over land.

This boundary tends to be slow-moving and separates hot, tropical air to the south and east from slightly cooler and less humid air to the north and west. Beginning later this weekend, such a boundary may develop near the mid-Atlantic.

Should it materialize, then heavy rain may not only ease drought problems in some areas, but enough rain may fall to trigger flash flooding. At the very least, a non-tropical system will slowly push in from the Midwest, and that alone will set off locally heavy and gusty showers and thunderstorms in the Northeast.

Super-charged hurricane season anticipated

AccuWeather has not wavered from its prediction of a super-charged hurricane season for 2024 since this past winter.

Record-setting Category 5 Hurricane Beryl demonstrated the concern AccuWeather's team of experts had about the potential energy available to extremely warm Atlantic waters.

As dry air diminishes and the effects of La Niña unfold late this summer and fall, great numbers of tropical storms and hurricanes are forecast, along with the likelihood of additional systems that intensify rapidly as Beryl did.

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