Tropical rainstorm in Caribbean to impact Florida, may strengthen

While development of a tropical rainstorm may be slow initially, the storm may strengthen as it approaches Florida this weekend with an uptick in downpours, thunderstorms and surf.

A tropical rainstorm will impact the northern islands of the Caribbean through the end of the week before approaching Florida this weekend when AccuWeather meteorologists believe the storm may further organize and strengthen. The scope of rain, wind and sea impacts will depend on the track and strength of the storm.

AccuWeather meteorologists began referring to the tropical wave as a tropical rainstorm on Monday to raise public awareness of the situation, including its potential to strengthen into a tropical storm and hurricane. The feature began producing rain and impacting the northern islands of the Caribbean on Tuesday.

The next name on the list of tropical storms in the Atlantic is Debby. Interests from the northern Caribbean to the eastern Gulf and Atlantic coast of the United States should monitor the rainstorm's progress.

Latest updates on the tropics

On satellite images, the tropical rainstorm, currently near the large island of Hispaniola, was more organized than at the start of the week but was far from being a tropical depression or tropical storm.

On Wednesday, the tropical rainstorm stretched across a few hundred miles and was lacking a well-defined center that all tropical depressions and tropical storms have.

On Thursday, there were notable signs that a center of circulation was beginning to form along the northern coast of Hispaniola, but thus far, with a lack of strong winds.

When and where a defined, strong center of low pressure forms will help forecasters determine the track and speed of strengthening in the days ahead.

"A storm center that remains over or close to the large, mountainous islands of the northern Caribbean from Hispaniola to Cuba will tend to keep strengthening at bay," AccuWeather Lead Hurricane Expert Alex DaSilva said, adding, "If the center forms or drifts away from the large islands, then more swift strengthening may be possible."

Impacts in the Caribbean to continue

In the short term, the tropical rainstorm will hug the islands and bring locally torrential downpours that can lead to flash flooding and mudslides, as well as gusty thunderstorms that can trigger sporadic power outages.

Enough circulation of the tropical rainstorm may develop to create rough seas and dangerous surf around the islands of the northern Caribbean, the Turks and Caicos and the southern Bahamas as the storm pushes westward.

With the tropical rainstorm expected to track near the large islands, rapid strengthening is highly unlikely in the short term.

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However, toward the weekend, as the tropical rainstorm drifts away from Cuba, it may begin to strengthen, and the chance of a tropical depression and full-fledged tropical storm forming will increase.

Risk of strengthening to a tropical depression, tropical storm

How quickly the tropical rainstorm strengthens will likely determine its track relative to Florida and the rest of the southern and eastern U.S. A strengthening storm would bring an increase in wind and rain near the core. At the same time, the overall coverage of showers and thunderstorms may consolidate.

Should it evolve quickly, it will be more likely to track northward along the eastern side of the Florida Peninsula or just offshore over the Atlantic. If it remains relatively weak, then it is more likely to drift toward the eastern Gulf of Mexico. This is why AccuWeather meteorologists have the area from the eastern Gulf of Mexico to the southern Atlantic coastal waters in the development risk at this time.

However, in either of these areas, warm waters could allow the tropical rainstorm to gain strength quickly from later this weekend to early next week as the atmosphere will be more moist and disruptive breezes, known as wind shear, will be low.

Florida impacts

Downpours and gusty thunderstorms will spread westward across Cuba and the western islands of the Bahamas on Friday before spreading over the Florida Keys and the southern part of the Florida Peninsula on Saturday.

Along with the potential for urban flooding will be the risk of waterspouts and hazards for beach and boating interests, at the very least.

As the rainstorm approaches and begins to strengthen, rip currents will increase in strength and number along the Florida coastline this weekend.

Ahead of the tropical rainstorm, a swath of intense heat with high humidity will build over the Southeast states.

The heat and humidity will be above what is typical for the region in early August and will make any preparatory work in advance of the tropical feature difficult.

What could happen next week

Should the storm stay east of Florida, the rough surf conditions will spread northward along the Atlantic coast to a certain point. If the center migrates farther to the northwest and into the Gulf of Mexico, then surf conditions will build along the Gulf coast.

Based on new information, whatever becomes of the tropical rainstorm in the Caribbean late this week, there is a significant chance it may get stuck in the Southeast states next week.

“Steering breezes that are guiding the tropical rainstorm to the west-northwest this week and a more northerly path this weekend are likely to weaken next week,” AccuWeather Meteorologist Brandon Buckingham said. “And that could create a problem for the forward speed of the tropical feature.”

This potential stalling scenario could bring days of downpours to parts of the Southeast, especially in coastal areas, instead of a focus of rain in parts of the mid-Atlantic and New England next week. However, that is subject to the intensity and track of the tropical rainstorm after it passes near Florida this weekend.

In a worst-case scenario, the tropical rainstorm could stall over the Southeast and may produce feet rather than inches of rain in some areas, which would result in major flooding.

Should steering breezes remain steady, the system would tend to hook back out into the Atlantic and move along or offshore of the mid-Atlantic and New England coasts next week.

Super-charged hurricane season anticipated

AccuWeather has not wavered from its prediction of a super-charged hurricane season for 2024 since this past winter.

Record-setting Category 5 Hurricane Beryl demonstrated the concern AccuWeather's team of experts had about the potential energy available to extremely warm Atlantic waters.

As dry air diminishes and the effects of La Niña unfold late this summer and fall, great numbers of tropical storms and hurricanes are forecast, along with the likelihood of additional storms that intensify rapidly as Beryl did.

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