Mailbag: Is Colorado State football set for a surge forward in 2024?

Here comes college football!

July is always the time when hype starts building. Conferences hold media days where every team talks about how great their offseason was, camp is around the corner and fans have convinced themselves that this is the year.

It's a great time! Throw in the release of the long-awaited EA Sports College Football 25 video game and fans are buzzing for football.

So, no better time for an offseason Colorado State football mailbag.

Seems like all of a sudden we are seeing CSU Football as being considered significantly underrated nationally, or rated much higher than maybe just a few months ago. What is leading to the recent surge, which seems more significant and widespread than the typical July excitement? (@CSURamT)

I’m not sure I’ve seen a big surge in CSU’s national expectations. I’ve seen a couple “sleeper G5 team” type claims about CSU, but that’s about it. There’s certainly excitement around Tory Horton and what a potentially improved Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi (and other weapons) can do on offense.

CSU’s win/loss line in Las Vegas is at 6.5, which is where most people (myself included) have the Rams roughly pinned at. I think the majority of college football experts see CSU as a bowl team, but not a conference title team.

It is possible that the insane MW coaching turnover (more on that below) has helped elevate CSU’s standing in the eyes of some.

Just how much of an advantage do you think facing a first-year head coach is since we play 8 of them. Do you think that could actually be the difference in any of this years games (@DylanCarabajal1)

The numbers are insane. CSU will face eight teams with a coach in the first year leading that program in 2024. Another two have a coach in the second year in charge. Jay Norvell, entering Year 3 at CSU, is the second-longest tenured coach in the Mountain West. I look at different tiers for coaching in the first year at a program.

• “Time to fix it” Tier: Coach is brought in to fix a bad team. For squads CSU faces this year that includes Nevada, New Mexico and UTEP.
• “Left for greener pastures” Tier: This includes Oregon State (Jonathan Smith went to Michigan State) and San Jose State (Brent Brennan left for Arizona).
• “Other stuff” Tier: Utah State’s Blake Anderson was fired in July, Fresno State’s Jeff Tedford stepped down in July due to medical issues, Wyoming’s Craig Bohl retired (as did San Diego State’s Brady Hoke, but the Rams don’t face the Aztecs in 2024).

What does it mean for CSU? Those bad teams needing a rebuild are games CSU has to win regardless of a change or not, so no difference. For Oregon State and SJSU, those had the look of difficult games but now are viewed more favorably. Especially SJSU in Fort Collins feels much more winnable for the Rams.

Likewise, Fresno State is still a quite good roster but that is a significant, late change. It could create a bit of chaos.

I’m not sure overall it will be a massive impact, but CSU played almost weekly one-score games a year ago and thin margins and cohesion could tip the scales in one or two games. The changes aren’t everything, but they’re not nothing.

Rank the new coaches that CSU will be facing this year from toughest to easiest (@aarongharris)

A lot of it comes down to the roster they inherit and have to flip. I like the Jeff Choate hire at Nevada, but there’s not much talent yet. Likewise, Bronco Mendenhall is intriguing, but the roster needs help.

I think the most likely to win at a strong level early is Jay Sawvel at Wyoming. I also expect Tim Skipper to help guide Fresno State to a strong season, plus this is a live job application for him.

Do you see any freshmen playing this year? (@RonMcNamar)

Without a doubt. With the ability to play in four games and still redshirt, it would be foolish to not play some freshmen. There will probably be a handful that play a lot more than four, too.

In today’s era of constant roster turnover, you play whoever you think can help you win that week. Forget playing the long game of four to five years of eligibility.

Jay Norvell and Jack Howell both highlighted freshman receiver Jordan Ross at media days. And those were unprompted praises. It seems like he has a chance to get in on the action. Special teams help is always a likely spot for freshmen to be able to chip in as well.

Hard to say exactly who right now, but freshmen will play. We’ll circle back onto the likely candidates once we get into camp.

Will college game day be coming to Canvas for Rocky Mountain showdown? (@awalk970)

I think there’s a chance ESPN’s College GameDay comes to Fort Collins for the Colorado game. The viewership numbers for the game last year were huge and everyone is very well aware of the drama that will lead into the game.

The chances will be determined a bit on what happens the first two weeks. If both teams are 1-1 (CU losing to Nebraska and CSU to Texas), it dims the hopes a bit. If CU is 2-0, it helps the chances. If CSU and CU are both 2-0 with the Rams beating Texas somehow, go ahead and book it.

Other notable games that week:

• Alabama at Wisconsin
• Texas A&M at Florida
• LSU at South Carolina
• Memphis at Florida State
• Tulane at Oklahoma
• Oregon at Oregon State
• Washington State at Washington

I would say it’s unlikely but not impossible for GameDay in Fort Collins. Given the drama of conference realignment, I wonder if Oregon at Oregon State is the move for GameDay that week.

Now that we are presumably done with coaching transitions - what is your locked in season prediction for CSU's record? (@aarongharris)

Will 2024 be the year CSU gets wins against CU, Air Force and Wyoming? Does CSU get 6+ wins and play in a postseason bowl game? (@giddyupletsride)

No, I don’t think CSU beats all three rivals. CSU is a combined 1-19 against the three from 2016-23, with the lone win a 2020 empty-stadium victory over Wyoming.

CSU hasn’t won at Air Force (where the Rams play in 2024) since 2002.

Combine all those facts and no, I’m not willing to say CSU will fully flip it this season. I think CSU gets at least one rivalry win, but a max of two.

Record prediction? I’ve been sitting at 6-6 for a long time but am battling an internal debate to push to 7-5. Final, official predictions column will come in late August, but I do expect the Rams to be in the postseason.

Outside of CSU, which team are you more excited to play with (in EA Sports College Football 25)? (@dylanrheinrich)

Rejoice at the return of college football to video games! It’s been far too long. My brother and I spent lots of time as kids building dynasties out of programs who had no business being there. That’s the charm.

If you know someone who is doing a dynasty with a Georgia/Alabama/Texas or the like (or even a mid-tier Power 4 program), get them out of your life. You don’t need that kind of unmotivated, easy-way-out person in your life.

In picking the perfect dynasty to build you need:

• A program who doesn’t historically win.
• One that has great swag.

That’s it. Don’t overthink current roster or anything like that. You’re recruiting the stars of tomorrow.

I’ll eliminate any Mountain West teams, simply so CSU fans don’t yell at me.

Now, not every team seems to have all their jersey alternates in the game. Other jerseys will be added as new ones drop. But, my pick is South Florida. Generally great swag (even if it’s not all in the game yet), rich recruiting ground.

Also, I know some CSU fans have been bummed to only have the home and road jersey option, but CSU has posted on social media that Ag Day and State Pride unis will be coming to the game soon. Based on that tease (and the delay in appearing in the game), I imagine that means there could be some uniform surprises in the works.

Follow sports reporter Kevin Lytle on X and Instagram @Kevin_Lytle .

This article originally appeared on Fort Collins Coloradoan: Mailbag: Is Colorado State football set for a surge forward in 2024?