Record Hurricane Predictions

Hurricane Ian damaged or destroyed hundreds of homes and boats in Fort Myers. TILLEY CHRIS

This year’s hurricane season is forecast to be extremely active, and that is not something Floridians want to hear!

It’s the highest number of storms government meteorologists have ever forecast. “This season is looking to be an extraordinary one,” says Rick Spinrad, administrator for the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), announcing the 2024 outlook.

• NOAA predicts an 85% chance of an above-normal season

• 17 to 25 named storms.

• Of those, eight to 13 are expected to become hurricanes

• Four to seven major hurricanes

Hurricane researchers at Colorado State University are predicting a “well above average” 2024 Atlantic hurricane season, which runs from June 1 to November 30.

The university is predicting 23 named storms, of which researchers expect 11 to become hurricanes. Scientist Levi Silvers says that is the highest number ever predicted in their initial forecast. As atmospheric conditions develop in June, July and August, more defined forecasts are expected.

COURTESY PHOTOS

“We do have a pretty good amount of confidence in this forecast because of how the conditions are looking,” Silvers says. How far above average the degree of activity will be “is what the question mark really is,” he said.

That question mark may strike fear and dread into the hearts of Southwest Floridians, some of whose homes, businesses and lives still haven’t recovered from Hurricane Ian’s devastation nearly two years ago.

Looking at an active season can be scary, “especially in an area like Lee County. Fort Myers that took such a catastrophic hurricane landfall just a couple of years ago,” said Mike Brennan, director of the National Hurricane Center. “But the idea is that we don’t want people to freak out. We don’t want people to throw up their hands and say, ‘Oh, you know, there’s nothing I can do.’ There are steps you can take to keep yourself, your friends, and your loved ones safe this season. That’s the whole point of what we’re doing now as we head into the 2024 season.”

NOAA / COURTESY IMAGE

That includes knowing the risk. “And unfortunately, in Lee County, everybody who was there for Ian knows what that risk looks like. Especially in terms of the storm surge footprint.” Brennan adds, “You’ve seen the destruction. I saw the destruction. I walked around Fort Myers Beach myself, and it was catastrophic.”

“I think the goal is to try to motivate people to be prepared in advance,” Silvers says.

The university predicts five of the hurricanes will reach major hurricane strength. A major hurricane is defined as a category 3, 4, or 5 on the Saffir-Simpson scale, with sustained winds of 111 miles per hour or greater.

These predictions are based on up to 40 years of historical hurricane seasons. The university research team cites record warm tropical and eastern subtropical Atlantic sea surface temperatures as a primary factor.

SILVERS

“We’ve had at least a full year now where the temperatures in that part of the Atlantic have been far above average and far above what we’ve observed before,” Silvers says. It explains it’s especially concerning because temperatures are not just on the warm side; they are much warmer than expected. Warm ocean water is a hurricane’s fuel source.

“I think what we can say with confidence is that climate change is making these things more intense,” says Silvers. “There’s a lot of things that happen with circulations in the ocean, and there’s a lot of variability that would happen even if humans were not on the planet at all. But climate change is adding to that.”

La Niña

Atmospheric conditions are transitioning from an El Niño to La Niña weather pattern. El Niño brings with it a higher possibility of wind shear, explaining,

“If the vertical wind shear is too strong, the hurricanes cannot form or get pulled apart before they strengthen.”

BRENNAN

Silvers says all signs are that La Niña will develop in August through October, the peak of hurricane season. This will bring weaker winds and less wind shear, conditions more favorable for hurricanes to form.

The university team predicts that 2024 hurricane activity will be about 170% of the average season over the last 30 years. By comparison, 2023’s hurricane activity was about 120% of the average season.

“I mean, this is why people are concerned,” Silvers says. “We’re trying to be cautious. We’re not trying to be extreme, but the numbers indicate what they’re indicating.”

The Colorado State University report also includes the probability of where a major hurricane could make landfall in 2024, based on an average of 140 years of hurricane seasons from 1880 to 2020:

• 62% for the entire U.S. coastline (average is 43%)

• 34% for the U.S. East Coast, including the Florida peninsula (the average from 1880–2020 is 21%).

NOTE: THE COLORADO STATE UNIVERSITY FORECAST TEAM ALSO PROVIDES PROBABILITIES OF NAMED STORMS, HURRICANES AND MAJOR HURRICANES TRACKING WITHIN 50 MILES OF EACH COUNTY OR PARISH ALONG THE GULF AND U.S. EAST COAST, AS WELL AS HURRICANE-PRONE COASTAL STATES. THIS CHART SHOWS THE PROBABILITIES FOR THE STATE OF FLORIDA, LEE, COLLIER, CHARLOTTE AND PALM BEACH COUNTIES.

• 42% for the Gulf Coast from the Florida peninsula westward to Brownsville (average from 1880–2020 is 27%). Note: This area also includes the Southwest Florida coast.

• 66% for the Caribbean (average is 47%)

The National Hurricane Center says now is the time to implement that plan. “One of the threats we face in Florida and the Gulf Coast is rapidly developing storms like Ian that form and can make landfall and be very intense within 3 or 4 days. So, you’re not going to necessarily have a week to watch a storm develop and come all the way across the Atlantic, like we did with Irma in 2017,” says Brennan.

The hurricane center is implementing several new policies this year.

They include:

¦ Issuance of intermediate advisories

Previously, tropical storm, hurricane, and storm surge watches and warnings could only be issued for the United States on full or special advisory “packages” issued at 5 a.m., 11 a.m., 5 p.m., and 11 p.m.

Beginning this season, the hurricane center will be able to issue U.S. tropical cyclone watches and warnings with regular or intermediate public advisories at 2 a.m., 8 a.m., 2 p.m. and 8 p.m.

This new policy allows issuing those watches and warnings on the intermediate advisory. “So that gives us a little more flexibility for marginal cases or situations on the edge of a big storm,” Brennan says.

¦ Extension of the tropical storm wind forecast.

Previously, those only went out from day one to day three. Now Brennan says, “We’re going to publicly issue those all the way to five days out through the end of the forecast period. That’ll help better convey that wind risk.” Whether a storm makes landfall, “there will always be a forecast of how big the tropical storm force wind field will be out five days into the future with each advisory.”

¦ An experimental new cone graphic

It may start on Aug. 15. It will depict inland watches and warnings for the U.S. to help people understand what might be coming inland instead of just on the coast.

“Our cone graphic previously only showed coastal hurricane and tropical storm watches warnings in the U.S.,’ Brennan says. “But those watches and warnings do extend inland. In Florida in particular, sometimes almost the entire state, all the way inland to Orlando and up into north Florida, can be under some type of wind watch or warning. So, we want to be able to accurately and properly convey that information. It’ll also help reinforce the idea that the risk of wind hazards and other hazards often does extend outside of the size of the cone itself, within that watch/warning time frame.” ¦

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