Steven Johnson: Why TCU has what it takes to make a bowl game in 2024

With TCU kicking off its season at Stanford on Friday, there’s no better time to finally do a season prediction for the Horned Frogs.

It’s a difficult task this season with the margins being so thin in the Big 12. Kansas State, Utah and Oklahoma State seem to be a tier slightly above the rest, but I could be convinced of at least eight teams that are good enough to make it to AT&T Stadium for the Big 12 championship game.

The Horned Frogs went from a playoff Cinderella in 2022 to one of the biggest disappointments in 2023. Where will the 2024 season fall?

Likely somewhere in the middle.

There are too many question marks, such as a new defensive scheme, to feel confident about TCU making it to Arlington, but there’s also too much talent on the roster to expect another season without a bowl game.

Let’s dive into the schedule and predict how the season will turn out for TCU:

Week 1: At Stanford, Aug. 30

Breakdown: The Horned Frogs head to the West Coast to open the season against a Stanford team that finished 3-9 last season. The Cardinal has some talented pieces such as Elic Ayomanor and early road trips can always be dangerous, but the Cardinal still had one of the worst defenses last year, with a limited offense. If TCU has truly taken strides over the offseason, then this is a game the Horned Frogs should win.

Prediction: TCU wins by double digits

Week 2: vs. Long Island, Sept. 7

Breakdown: Let’s keep it simple, if freshman quarterback Hauss Hejny isn’t getting a ton of playing time in the second half, then something has gone wrong.

Prediction: TCU in a blowout.

Week 3: vs. Central Florida, Sept. 14

Breakdown: After two convincing victories, TCU gets its first real test against the Knights. UCF added former Arkansas quarterback and Kendal Briles protege in the offseason to lead an offense that has two of the most underrated players in the country. Kobe Hudson had 900 yards on just 44 receptions, while RJ Harvey rushed for 1,400 and 16 touchdowns. TCU is at home, but UCF’s playmakers could be the difference against a defense still building chemistry.

Prediction: TCU loses in a shootout.

Week 4: at SMU, Sept. 21

Breakdown: Stakes will be high for both teams in the Battle for the Iron Skillet with the rivalry headed to an indefinite pause after the 2025 season. The Mustangs looked vulnerable in their season opener on the road and could have a quarterback battle brewing between Preston Stone and Kevin Jennings. TCU licks its wounds from the UCF and rebounds with a strong defensive performance on the road.

Prediction: TCU pulls away late from SMU.

Week 5: at Kansas, Sept. 28

Breakdown: The Horned Frogs will face the Jayhawks in a crucial swing game in Kansas City instead of Lawrence due to renovations at the Jayhawks’ stadium. This one could ultimately come down to the health of Kansas quarterback Jalon Daniels. When he’s available he’s been one of the most exciting players in the country the last two seasons. He was injured in the sixth game of the season in 2022 and missed extended time. Last season, he played in only three games.

For the sake of simplicity, let’s assume Daniels is healthy. With the Jayhawks returning star running back Devin Neal and its three leading receivers, TCU will have its hands full with the Kansas offense.

Prediction: TCU falls to 0-2 in conference play.

Week 6: vs. Houston, Oct. 4

Breakdown: The Horned Frogs host new conference mate Houston in a game that should be a great opportunity for TCU to bounce back into the win column. The Cougars fired Dana Holgorsen, now a TCU consultant, and hired Willie Fritz from Tulane to take over the program. Houston went 4-8 last season and could struggle to turn it around right away under Fritz.

Prediction: TCU wins by double digits

Week 8: at Utah, Oct. 19

Breakdown: This is one of the few games on the slate where it feels like the odds will be stacked against the Horned Frogs. Since 2021, the Utes are 18-1 at Rice-Eccles Stadium. It’s an intimidating venue to play at, and that’s before you take into account the physicality and toughness of Utah football. The Utes also return star quarterback Cam Rising, who missed last season with an injury. When healthy Rising led the Utes to back-to-back Rose Bowls. If he’s healthy, it’s hard to see TCU pulling off an upset here.

Prediction: Utah stifles the TCU offense in another Big 12 defeat.

Week 9: vs. Texas Tech, Oct. 26

Breakdown: With the pressure mounting sitting at 4-3, the Horned Frogs will host the rival Red Raiders in what should be one of the best home atmospheres of the season. Texas Tech had its way with TCU in Lubbock last season and while the Red Raiders return star running back Tahj Brooks, the Horned Frogs are able to avenge last year’s defeat thanks to a more mature Josh Hoover and a defense that is able to limit Brooks’ impact.

Prediction: The Horned Frogs use a second-half surge to defeat Texas Tech.

Week 10: at Baylor, Nov. 2

Breakdown: With a bowl berth in sight, TCU faces another rival in the Baylor Bears. This is a crucial season for Baylor head coach Dave Aranda, who could be on the hot seat by the time this game roles around. The Bears also brought in the dynamic Dequan Finn to help spark an offense that ranked 13th in the Big 12 in scoring offense. TCU has won four straight and eight of the last 10 in this rivalry. Finn’s an intriguing player, but TCU keeps up its dominance of Baylor and secures a bowl bid in the process.

Prediction: The Horned Frogs survive in a thriller in Waco.

Week 11: vs. Oklahoma State, Nov. 9

Breakdown: The Cowboys were one of the biggest surprises in the country last season, going from being picked seventh in the preseason media poll to making a trip to Arlington for the Big 12 title against Texas. Most of the Cowboys’ production returns as ESPN ranked Oklahoma State No. 4 in the country in returning production. The Cowboys are led by running back Ollie Gordon, one of the best players in college football, and also return a deep room of receivers.

The only question mark is Alan Bowman, who threw for 15 touchdowns and 14 interceptions last season. Oklahoma State is formidable, but Bowman’s mistakes open up the door for TCU to pull off an upset at the Carter.

Prediction: A late turnover lifts TCU to a huge win over Oklahoma State

Week 13: vs. Arizona, Nov. 23

Breakdown: This is another game hard to get a read on. The Wildcats won 10 games last season and return their two best players in quarterback Noah Fifita and wide receiver Tetairoa McMillan. However, Arizona lost its coach Jedd Fisch to Washington and will begin a new era under Brent Brennan, who was hired from San Jose State this offseason. It’s tempting to predict another upset for TCU, but Fifita may be the league’s best quarterback and McMillan could be a problem for TCU’s secondary.

Prediction: Fifita puts on a show in a solid win for Arizona

Week 14: at Cincinnati, Nov. 30

Breakdown: The Horned Frogs close the regular season with a trip to Ohio. Like most of the newcomers last season, the Bearcats struggled in their first Big 12 season, going 1-8 in league games. Cincinnati brought in Indiana transfer Brendan Sorsby to provide a spark to one of the worst offenses in the league last season, and the Bearcats return a 1,000-yard rusher in Corey Kiner. Cincinnati should show some improvement, but this is another game TCU should expect to win.

Prediction: TCU slows down Kiner and finishes the regular season 8-4 in earning a solid bowl berth.

Conclusion

In totality, the 2024 season ends up being a success for TCU as the Horned Frogs have a defense that ranks in the upper half of the Big 12 while the offense is much more efficient under Josh Hoover. A number of younger players like Jamel Johnson, Cam Cook and Markis Deal make major impacts, setting up 2025 as a year where TCU can contend for the Big 12 crown and another playoff berth.