National Hurricane Center watching system off North Carolina coast

RALEIGH, N.C. (WNCN) — The National Hurricane Center is monitoring four areas in the tropics, one of which is off the North Carolina coast.

Odds for the development of this system are low, 10% over the next two days and 20% over the next week as it moves northeast.

Before you start worrying, there are a few things to know.

The first is that this low pressure is moving away from North Carolina. The second is that it’s not a fully tropical low pressure, meaning it will likely stay a weaker system.

This low pressure has developed on a stalled-out cold front, which makes it a non-tropical low pressure. Tropical low pressures have no cold or warm fronts! (If you want to dive deep into the meteorological weeds: a tropical low is called barotropic while a non-tropical low is called baroclinic . )

If this low were to get any tropical characteristics, it would likely be considered a sub-tropical system, meaning it’s not fully tropical.

Subtropical systems tend to be lopsided and are sometimes weaker. Either way, it shouldn’t matter much for us in North Carolina as it this low is pushing away from us.

There are three other areas to watch in the tropics as well, none of which are expected to impact North Carolina, but all with low odds for development.

One tropical wave could bring impacts to Central America, and possibly the Gulf of Mexico within the next week, especially as it gets into warmer than average waters in the Gulf.

The other two areas are not expected to develop much over the next few days as they fight some dry, dusty air but also move into areas that will have stronger wind shear which may weaken the developing systems.

While the tropics have been quiet as of late, waters are still warm in the Atlantic, meaning it may not take much for something to develop if it can fight off dry air and wind shear.

We are getting into peak season, but tropical storms and hurricanes have developed through the end of November, as long as conditions are right.

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