5 bold predictions for the Florida Gators in 2024

GAINESVILLE, Fla. — The Florida Gators will start OTAs today and fall camp is just around the corner. With the season just 40 days away, it’s time to make some bold (in our minds) predictions for the season.

Florida wins 7 games

Listen, this might not sound bold but the over/under win total for the Gators this season is 4.5, so it’s very bold in the eyes of Vegas bookmakers. I always say, the men and women that build palaces in the desert don’t keep expanding because they’re wrong when they set betting lines. Last year, Florida’s like was 5.5 and the Gators had five wins before the bye week and the over looked like it would cash before November but it never did.

We’ve spent all offseason talking about the Gators’ schedule, and yes, the month of November is hard and the trip to Knoxville in October is a real test. The Gators need to beat Kentucky the next week as well.

Seven wins may not seem bold to you reading this, but a 7-5 regular season with a chance to finish 8-5 against this schedule is a really good season for the Gators, in my opinion.

Montrell Johnson rushes for 1,000 yards

Johnson has been on the cusp of 1,000 yards in each of his three collegiate seasons. He rushed for 838 as a freshman, 841 as a sophomore, and 817 as a junior. In each of those seasons, Johnson had to share carries. He was one of three backs who carried the ball 100 times at Louisiana and he split time with Trevor Etienne in each of the last two seasons. A 1,000-yard season is a milestone not often reached at Florida. It’s only happened 11 times (by 9 players) since 1975, with Kelvin Taylor being the last to accomplish the feat nearly a decade ago.

2015 Kelvin Taylor – 1,035
2012 Mike Gillislee – 1,152
2004 Ciatrick Fason – 1,267
2002 Earnest Graham – 1,085
1997 Fred Taylor – 1,291
1992 Errict Rhett – 1,289
1991 Errict Rhett – 1,109
1989 Emmitt Smith – 1,599
1987 Emmitt Smith – 1,341
1985 Neal Anderson – 1,034
1975 Jimmy DuBose – 1,402

If we’re going bolder, I think Johnson gets over 1,100 yards.

Graham Mertz throws for 3,500 yards and 28 TDs

Mertz came to Florida with little fanfare and — hand up in the air — I was a doubter. He proved me and anyone else who questioned the take from Napier wrong. Mertz had a career season in 2023 completing an SEC-best 72.9% of his passes for 2,903 yards and 20 touchdowns to just three interceptions. He missed the last game of the season. He was on pace for 3,166 yards last season and 21 touchdowns. I think he will improve on those numbers this season.

The Gators will beat Kentucky

Before you come for me, the Gators have lost three straight to the Wildcats and four of the last six. The Gators have been outscored 59-30 in the last two meetings. This isn’t your father or grandfather’s Kentucky and Mark Stoops should get a lot of credit for the program he’s built. Kentucky isn’t going to be able to recruit the kind of athletes that programs like Florida, Alabama, Georgia or Ohio State can, so Stoops has created an identity. They recruit, develop, and play to that identity and it’s made him the most successful coach in program history.

The Gators have to end the losing skid to the Cats and they’ll do that this season in The Swamp.

Florida will win at least one game in November

Georgia, at Texas, LSU, Ole Miss, and at Florida State. Allow me to go an extra level deeper here. The Gators will get both of their bye weeks before November, so they’ll have those five games in consecutive weeks. That is not the case for their opponents

Other than LSU, all of Florida’s opponents get a bye week before playing Florida (sorry, Charleston Southern, but it is what it is).

Still, I think the Gators will win one game over this slate and could win more. Ole Miss comes into the season as a playoff contender. They went all-in on that notion with a huge investment in the transfer portal. If the Rebels are out of playoff contention, are those transfers still playing hard? It feels like a mercenary team hired to accomplish a goal and if that goal is unattainable.

What will Florida State be at the end of the season and what will LSU look like coming off of a game against Alabama? November is tough but I don’t think the Gators will go 0-5 to end the season like many are predicting.

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