Pivot Point games: The matchups that can make or break your college football team’s season

A Pivot Point game isn’t necessarily the biggest game on a team’s schedule. We all know Michigan-Ohio State is usually important, and we certainly understand the psychological freight attached to this year’s meeting for the Buckeyes. But there are games along the way that can set the tone or alter the tone for those later season matchups.

A Pivot Point game is a matchup that — by virtue of where it falls on the schedule or how evenly matched the opponents might be — can spark a hot streak or lead to a tumble that sends the season into oblivion. Circle your calendars for these games, because they could have outsize impacts on the season.

Sept. 14 – Texas A&M at Florida

You thought I’d say Miami-Florida, right? That’s a Pitchforks and Torches game, but not a Pivot Point game. The fans of the losing team in Miami-Florida absolutely will melt down, but the truth is that game may not tell us much. If Miami wins a close game and turns out to be an excellent team, it doesn’t mean Florida’s season is over by any stretch. If Florida wins, the Hurricanes’ ACC title and College Football Playoff goals remain in reach.

Texas A&M’s week three visit to Gainesville, however, could generate storylines aplenty. If both teams lose their openers — the Aggies host Notre Dame at Kyle Field — the winner of this one starts SEC play strong and avoids two-loss hole while the loser goes further into the tank. If both win their openers, the winner of this one can start dreaming big in spite of difficult schedules.

For Florida, beating this version of Texas A&M feels like a must given the difficulty of the rest of the SEC schedule. The Aggies aren’t under nearly as much pressure in Mike Elko’s year one as the Gators are in Billy Napier’s year three, which could work to Texas A&M’s advantage. If Florida loses this one, it would be fair for fans to wonder how it took Elko nine months to reach that level when Napier keeps insisting it takes years. If Florida wins, expect Elko’s honeymoon period to end quickly. Texas A&M didn’t pay $77 million to buy out Jimbo Fisher to lose games when the Aggies have equal or greater overall talent.

Sept. 21 – N.C. State at Clemson

We’re going to form all sorts of opinions about Clemson based on how the Tigers fare against Georgia on Aug. 31. We’ll do the same for N.C. State based on how the Wolfpack fare against Tennessee on Sept. 7. But neither one of those games will affect the ACC title race — though both could influence whether the ACC gets more than one team into the CFP.

This matchup will set the tone for the conference title race. N.C. State has won two of the past three meetings, but both those wins came at Carter-Finley Stadium. This requires a win in Death Valley, something 13-0 2023 ACC champ Florida State needed overtime to accomplish. We keep predicting the downfall of Clemson because Dabo Swinney doesn’t want to use the transfer portal, and maybe another loss to N.C. State would be the knockout blow.

Or maybe Clemson still has a lot of excellent players that Swinney signed out of high school and remains capable of winning the conference. If the Tigers can beat the Wolfpack here, it could turn the DJ Uiagalelei Bowl on Oct. 5 in Tallahassee into the first of two meetings.

Sept. 28 – Oklahoma at Auburn

The ultimate Pivot Point games are the ones that feel like absolute must-wins for both teams. Jordan-Hare Stadium has hosted a few such games. The 2016 LSU-Auburn matchup looked like a loser-leaves-town match between Les Miles and Gus Malzahn, and sure enough Miles got fired after his team lost.

This one won’t get anyone fired, but it definitely feels critical for both teams simply by virtue of where it falls on the schedule. Oklahoma opens SEC play in Norman against Tennessee on Sept. 21, so the Sooners either will come in riding high after notching their first win in their new league or desperate to avoid an 0-2 conference start.  The next time Oklahoma takes the field, it’ll be in the Cotton Bowl against Texas. Then the Sooners immediately face South Carolina and Ole Miss. (With Alabama and LSU waiting on the far end of the schedule.)

Not many teams have a stretch as gnarly as that, but Auburn can make the case. The Tigers play their first five games at home, and to have the kind of season they want to have, they may need to win all five. After Auburn plays Oklahoma, it hits the road to face Georgia, Missouri and Kentucky in a four-week stretch. A loss at home to one of the SEC’s newbies would make that stretch feel even more daunting.

Sept. 28 – Wisconsin at USC

Like Florida-Miami, LSU-USC in week one will produce all manner of blazing takes but might not tell us much about either team. The Badgers’ visit to the Coliseum, on the other hand, should provide valuable data about both teams early in Big Ten play.

USC opens its Big Ten schedule at Michigan a week earlier, and as long as the Trojans are competitive, there would be no shame in losing to the defending national champs in the Big House. But if the Trojans also have lost to LSU, Wisconsin’s visit to the Coliseum is a must-win. Lincoln Riley can’t afford to start this season 1-3.

By the same token, if USC beats LSU, Michigan or both, a win against the Badgers would provide more momentum for a team that would at that point look capable of making a playoff run.

For Wisconsin, this game comes following the open date that follows a visit from Alabama. Luke Fickell didn’t take the Wisconsin job to live in the middle of the Big Ten standings. For the Badgers to be what Fickell wants, they have to be able to go on the road and win games like this one. After a litmus test matchup with the Crimson Tide, Wisconsin will have a week to make adjustments for an opponent that might resemble Alabama at the skill positions but won’t offer the same challenge on the line of scrimmage.

Sept. 28 – Liberty at Appalachian State

Liberty’s schedule does the Flames no favors if they’d like to be the Group of 5 representative in the College Football Playoff. They don’t play a Core Four team, and their non-conference schedule isn’t particularly challenging save this one game.

What Liberty needs is to go to Boone, N.C., and beat Appalachian State and then have the Mountaineers race through the Sun Belt and win the league. That would give Liberty the best chance, because even at 13-0 the Flames likely would need some help.

Appalachian State’s situation is different. If the Mountaineers could upset Clemson on Sept. 7 and then win the Sun Belt, they’d stand a great chance of getting into the CFP. (Unless South Florida were to beat Alabama and/or Miami and then win the American. Then the Bulls probably get in.) A win against Liberty likely would bolster Appalachian State’s resume, because it’s quite possible the Flames would finish 12-1 in that scenario. And even if Appalachian State loses to Clemson, beating Liberty and winning the Sun Belt might be enough depending on how chaotic the other Group of 5 leagues are.

Of course, it’s no given that Appalachian State wins a fairly deep Sun Belt. But the Mountaineers probably have to do that and beat the Flames to be considered.

Oct. 12 – Ole Miss at LSU

Ole Miss hasn’t beaten LSU in Baton Rouge since 2008, but if the Rebels want to make their first College Football Playoff appearance — or their first SEC title game appearance, or both — they probably have to win there this season. Perhaps they beat Oklahoma and Georgia at home, but this feels like the kind of road game a team needs to be able to overcome to take that next step.

Last year, Ole Miss beat LSU 55-49 in a track meet in Oxford. Reverse the result of that shootout and we probably feel differently about each team’s 2023 season. That’s the margin we’re dealing with.

For LSU, beating Ole Miss would show the Tigers can compete with the best of the SEC and might portend a CFP run — especially if LSU opened with a win against USC. Texas A&M, Alabama and Oklahoma would be the three toughest opponents remaining on LSU’s schedule. Should LSU arrive at that stretch without a loss, it would have considerable room for error the rest of the way.

Oct. 19  – Miami at Louisville

Now we reach the Pivot Point for the Hurricanes, who after Florida face a sneaky challenge at USF and a fairly tough ACC opener at home against Virginia Tech on Sept. 27.

Miami should be able to beat the Hokies and Cal to open conference play, but the trip to Louisville following an open date — and a week ahead of Florida State’s visit to Hard Rock Stadium — comes in a critical spot. Louisville played for the ACC title last year and reloaded in the transfer portal. The Cardinals may be as much of foil for Miami’s CFP dreams as the rival Seminoles. Miami probably has to at least split the Louisville-Florida State double to stay on track to make the ACC title game.

Louisville, meanwhile, can assert its place in the ACC race with a win here. The Notre Dame game doesn’t count in the ACC standings, but a win against Miami provides a massive chip even if the Cardinals drop one of their tricky early conference matchups with Georgia Tech or SMU. Win against Miami, and Clemson might be all that stands in the way of the Cardinals and a repeat trip to the ACC title game — this time with a playoff berth on the line.

Nov. 2 – Oregon at Michigan

I didn’t choose Ohio State’s visit to Oregon on Oct. 12 for the Ducks because we keep assuming that it will be the first of two meetings between those teams. And maybe it will be. But what happens Nov. 2 in Ann Arbor could change that.

What if Ohio State beats Oregon and Michigan’s offense is surprisingly good (alongside a defense we suspect will be great)? What if Michigan beats the Ducks, handing them a second Big Ten loss and two head-to-head losses against what might be the other top two teams in the conference?

Or, what if Oregon beats Ohio State and Michigan beats Oregon? That could set up a Michigan-Ohio State matchup in Columbus that — just like in the divisional days — decides who gets to play for the Big Ten title.

Meanwhile, Oregon could solidify its chance to play for the conference title by beating the Wolverines. Needing to win at the Big House to have a chance to reach the Rose Bowl is a quintessential Big Ten circumstance, and Oregon could get that feeling in year one in the conference.

The entire Big 12 schedule

I couldn’t pick one or two pivotal games in the Big 12 because all the teams feel so bunched together. Utah-Oklahoma State in Stillwater on Sept. 21 feels huge, but Utah plays Arizona in Salt Lake City the following week. Kansas State plays Arizona Sept. 13 in a game that was scheduled before Arizona joined the league and therefore won’t count in the conference standings. Kansas State plays Oklahoma State on Sept. 28 in Manhattan, but who knows? Maybe the Wildcats’ visit to West Virginia on Oct. 19 will be one of the most pivotal matchups of the season.

We may just have to watch all of these games down the stretch as these teams sort out the conference race.

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