Best-case, worst-case scenarios for Clemson football, Dabo Swinney in 2024

CLEMSON — The pressure has risen for Clemson football and coach Dabo Swinney entering 2024.

After making the College Football Playoff for six consecutive seasons (2015-20), the Tigers have missed the tournament the past three seasons. They also missed the ACC championship last year after finishing with nine wins, their fewest since 2010.

As college football has evolved with the transfer portal, Swinney has rarely used it , landing only two transfers (both reserve quarterbacks) since 2021. He prefers to stick with high school recruiting and development and trust his players who developed at Clemson.

Swinney's philosophy will face greater criticism if Clemson misses the 12-team CFP this year. However, if the Tigers break through after a three-year playoff absence, it will reinforce the 16-year Tigers coach's viewpoint.

Here are the best- and worst-case scenarios for the No. 14 Tigers in 2024 before they face No. 1 Georgia on Saturday (noon ET, ABC) at Mercedes-Benz Stadium:

Best-case scenario: College Football Playoff bye

Clemson returns to being the top dog of the ACC, winning the conference for the eighth time in 10 years.

Quarterback Cade Klubnik shows immense improvement in his second year as the starter, creates explosive plays with his wealth of skill position players and limits critical turnovers. The Tigers' defense shows no signs of dropping off despite losing eight starters, the team avoids crucial injuries and place-kicking is sufficient.

Clemson faces No. 24 NC State, Stanford, No. 10 Florida State, Wake Forest, Virginia, Louisville, Virginia Tech and Pittsburgh in conference play this season. It goes undefeated or loses one game to post a 11-1 (8-0 ACC) or 10-2 (7-1) and wins the conference championship to land one of the four CFP byes.

MORE: Six-hour, last-minute road trip shows trust Clemson's Cade Klubnik has with Phil Mafah

Worst-case scenario: 8-4 again, pressure mounts on Dabo Swinney

Clemson opens the season with a blowout loss to Georgia, then everything slowly goes downhill. It narrowly defeats Appalachian State in its home opener, then falls to NC State at Memorial Stadium in the following two weeks.

The Tigers respond with a win vs. Stanford, but Florida State defeats them in Tallahassee, dropping their record to 2-3 (1-2 ACC). Clemson's CFP hopes are nearly extinguished; the Tigers need to make the ACC championship for a shot at the tournament. However, it drops another conference game, to Louisville at home or Virginia Tech on the road, and it has no shot at the CFP.

This will elevate concerns regarding Swinney's high school recruiting over transfer portal strategy and possibly will have the Tigers coach on the hot seat entering the 2025 season.

Derrian Carter covers Clemson athletics for The Greenville News and the USA TODAY Network. Email him at dcarter@gannett.com and follow him on X, formerly known as Twitter, @DerrianCarter00

This article originally appeared on Greenville News: Best-case, worst-case scenarios for Clemson football, Dabo Swinney in 2024