How Justin Verlander's latest IL stint could impact 2025

Justin Verlander's second IL stint of the season will keep him off the mound for the remainder of the month, but it could also impact his future with the Astros after this season.

Verlander, who was placed on the IL Tuesday with neck discomfort after being scratched from his start on Saturday, has a $35 million option for 2025 that vests if he hits the 140 innings mark in 2024, half of which the Mets are on the hook for. He needs to complete 83 more innings this season to hit that mark.

The Astros will have 79 games left in the 2024 season when Verlander is eligible to be activated off the IL on July 1.

That would give Verlander 15 more starts if he stays healthy and pitches every five games, so he would need to average 5.5 innings per start to get to 140. He's averaged 5.7 innings through his first 10 starts of the season.

Houston could squeeze an extra start or two out of Verlander by manipulating the rotation at the All-Star break, and they could also keep him on an every five days schedule, even during stretches where they have off days.

Verlander, who has now landed on the IL four times in the three seasons since returning from Tommy John surgery, could make fewer than 15 starts if another injury creeps up, which is prone to happen with 41-year old athletes.

All three of Verlander's previous IL stints have been short-term and have had nothing to do with his surgically repaired elbow. A calf injury landed him on the IL in 2022, while two different shoulder ailments forced him on the IL to start this season and last season late.

If Verlander fails to reach 140 innings in 2024 he will become a free agent this winter, and the Mets would be off the hook for their half of his 2025 salary.

The future Hall-of-Famer's 3.95 ERA was second amongst the five Astros starters with at least 10 starts entering Monday's game in Chicago.