Houston Astros at New York Mets odds, picks and predictions

The New York Mets (40-40) welcome the Houston Astros (41-41) to Citi Field Sunday. First pitch in the final of the 3-game series is set for 1:40 p.m. ET (ESPN+). Let’s analyze FanDuel Sportsbook’s lines around the Astros vs. Mets odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.

Season series: Tied 1-1

The Mets are 21-24 at home after losing 9-6 Saturday despite closing as a -111 favorite. New York had its 4-game winning streak snapped, yet is still 12-3 over its last 15 games. The Mets have won 8 of their last 9 at home. They are 40-40 against the spread (ATS).

The Astros are 17-22 on the road after losing Saturday, but did win the series-opening game 7-2 Friday. They are also playing well, having won 8 of their last 9 games. Houston has won 3 of its last 4 on the road. It is 8-1 ATS over its last 9 games to even its season ATS record at 41-41.

Astros at Mets projected starters

RHP Shawn Dubin vs. RHP Luis Severino

Dubin (1-1, 5.64 ERA) makes his 15 appearance and 1st start. He has a 1.66 WHIP, 4.4 BB/9 and 10.1 K/9 in 22 1/3 IP.

• Last game: No-decision, 1 IP, 1 ER, 1 H, 1 BB, 2 K in a 7-1 home win over the Colorado Rockies Wednesday
• 2024 away splits: 0-0, 6.14 ERA (7 1/3 IP, 5 ER), 1.77 WHIP, 0 HR, 12.3 K/9 in 5 appearances
• Career vs. Mets: 0-0, 15.00 ERA (3 IP, 5 ER), 2.67 WHIP, 12.0 K/9 in 1 appearance

Severino (5-2, 3.29 ERA) makes his 16th start. He has a 1.15 WHIP, 3.1 BB/9 and 7.1 K/9 in 90 1/3 IP.

• Last start: Win, 6 IP, 0 ER, 3 H, 0 BB, 10 K in a 5-2 road win over the Chicago Cubs Sunday
• 2024 home splits: 3-1, 2.47 ERA (47 1/3 IP, 13 ER), 1.18 WHIP, 5 HR, 6.7 K/9 in 8 starts
• Career vs. Astros: 2-4, 4.93 ERA (45 2/3 IP, 25 ER), 1.27 WHIP, 10.1 K/9 in 9 appearances (8 starts)

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Astros at Mets odds

Provided by FanDuel Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 7:48 a.m. ET.

• Moneyline (ML): Astros +130 (bet $100 to win $130) | Mets -154 (bet $154 to win $100)
• Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Astros +1.5 (-160) | Mets -1.5 (+130)
• Over/Under (O/U): 9 (O: -110 | U: -110)

Astros at Mets picks and predictions

Prediction

Mets 6, Astros 4

BET METS (-154).

The Astros, given Dubin has numerous appearances but no starts, will likely look to their bullpen early. They sit 13th in the majors in ERA for relievers. The Astros strength in their recent win streak was their pitching, allowing 1 or 2 runs in 4 games from June 22-26. Over the last 2, they have allowed 13 runs.

Dubin and an average bullpen will have a red-hot Mets team which has tallied at least 6 runs in 4 straight games. The Mets have won Severino’s last 5 starts, but have only covered in 3 of those. Considering those trends, take the team with the better starting option here and back METS (-154).

PASS.

Simply put, the Mets are too risky as a run-line favorite while the Astros are too expensive as a run-line underdog. The best value, on either side, is on the moneyline.

LEAN OVER 9 (-110).

The Mets are 5-2 O/U in Severino’s last 7 starts and are scoring with ease over the last week. They have gone Over in 4 straight games and in 5 of their last 7. New York has allowed at least 7 runs in 2 of its last 4 and in 3 of its last 6.

The Astros, who are just 30-48-4 O/U, have went north of the projected total in 2 straight and are 3-1-1 O/U in their last 5. They have scored at least 5 runs in 7 of their last 8 games. With those trends in mind, back OVER 9 (-110).

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