Assessing Houston Texans RBs in fantasy football

The Houston Texans have been a revolving door at running back in recent years with a different leading rusher each of the last six seasons. If the coaches get what they expect out of veteran free-agent signee Joe Mixon, said streak will continue for a seventh straight year.

With the moves made in this offseason, Houston is looking to fast-track a rise in the AFC and is putting a lot of money into players like Mixon and wide receiver Stefon Diggs to give quarterback C.J. Stroud as many weapons as possible.

Former starter Dameon Pierce is looking to reclaim his career after a meteoric rise in 2022 and just as sharp a decline in 2023.

Joe Mixon

Mixon spent seven seasons as the go-to back in Cincinnati, but he turns 28 on July 24, and the Bengals opted to move on from him, despite a stellar NFL career.

The 2023 campaign marked the fourth 1,000-yard rushing season in his last six years and his fifth with 210 or more carries. Injuries have been a bit of an issue – he has played in every game of a season just twice in his career.

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What has made Mixon a consistent fantasy running back is that he is a three-down player who adds considerable value as a receiver. In the last two seasons, he caught 112 passes — 60 in 2022 and 52 last season — which represent the most receptions and receiving yards (441 in 2022 and 376 in 2023) of his career.

The cherry on top of the sundae is that Mixon is one of the top-scoring running backs in the league as well. Over the last three seasons, he has tallied 37 touchdowns. He comes to Houston with a deep history of success and consistency, something the Texans have been sorely lacking for years.

Dameon Pierce

Pierce exploded as a rookie in 2022 when was named a surprise starter when the Texans cut veteran Marlon Mack at the end of the preseason and handed him the starting job. He responded with a very strong season by rushing 220 times for 939 yards and four touchdowns and catching 30 passes for 165 yards and one TD in 13 games.

What made Pierce such a fantasy phenom was his carry volume. He had 15 or more carries in nine of his final 12 games before going down to injury, averaged 4.3 yards a carry, and had at least one carry of 20 or more yards in seven of his last 11 games.

Last year, he fell just as dramatically as he rose in 2022. In 14 games, he rushed just 145 times for 416 yards and two touchdowns and caught 13 passes for 101 yards. He averaged just 2.9 yards a carry, never averaged four yards a carry in any game, and had just one carry for more than 20 yards (a 22-yard run against Denver).

The Texans claim Pierce has looked stronger and faster during OTAs, but the signing of a workhorse like Mixon wasn’t an unrelated coincidence.

Dare Ogunbowale and Jawhar Jordan

A career special teams player, Ogunbowale made a mild splash in 2022 after coming to Houston from Jacksonville. In 17 games, he had 42 carries for 123 yards, 20 receptions for 104 yards and one touchdown. Last season, in 12 games, he totaled just eight carries for 35 yards and two catches for seven yards. O-Gun will likely make the roster because of his special teams ability but doesn’t bring much to the offense.

A sixth-round pick in this year’s draft, Jordan spent five years in college between Syracuse and Louisville and averaged 5.8 yards a carry. He blew up at Louisville last season, rushing 181 times for 1,128 yards and 13 touchdowns. Jordan could be a player to watch in the preseason, but he’s not expected to be an immediate contributor.

Fantasy football outlook

Given his consistency and ability as a runner, a receiver and a goal-line threat, Mixon remains in the category of a low RB1 or high RB2 in 12-player leagues. He will get every opportunity to see 20 touches a game and help keep Houston’s offense more balanced. When healthy, he has been one of the most consistent and productive running backs in the league.

The same can’t be said for Pierce. While many anticipate a bounce-back season, he will likely see minimal carries if Mixon brings what is expected. His current ADP has him falling in the middle of the RB5 category, which will likely see him drafted, but just as likely mired on a fantasy bench. His upside has been greatly reduced after a brutal 2023 season, though there’s a slight chance he’s worked in more if Houston wants to preserve Mixon for a deep playoff run.

Ogunbowale and Jordan have no draft value at this point and will need injuries to Mixon and/or Pierce to have fantasy value during the season.