2024 Astros trade deadline preview: Greatest needs, possible targets as Houston powers into AL West tie

The next notable date on Major League Baseball's calendar is the July 30 trade deadline. That, of course, means buyers and sellers and "holders" and, one hopes, blockbuster swaps before the deadline arrives.

Speaking of which, we're working our way through close inspections of several teams that figure to be an active participant in the run-up to the deadline. We're doing that by prescribing a handful of specific trade pieces that the team in question should target – or, in the case of a rebuilding team/seller, we'll declare which players should be on the way out.

Up this time around is the Houston Astros, who are presently tied with the Mariners for first place in the American League West and thus positioned as a buyer leading up to July 30. Let's have a closer look at their deadline situation.

What they need

Not all that long ago, the Astros looked like potential sellers, which was a surprise turn of events given that they've been a part of the ALCS for seven straight years. Back on May 8, Houston was 12 games under .500 and seemed in danger of seeing that lengthy run of contention come to an end. The Astros, however, ripped off a 17-8 record in June, and thus far in July they have a 10-6 mark. They're back above the waterline, and SportsLine right now gives them a hefty 81% chance of making the playoffs in 2024. That puts them squarely in buyer territory.

Priority No. 1 should be fortifying a rotation that's been brought low by injuries. Consider the names Justin Verlander, Luis Garcia, Cristian Javier, Lance McCullers Jr., and José Urquidy. That's not the current Houston rotation (although it would make a fine one). Those are the Astros' starting pitchers presently on the injured list. Verlander (neck) and Garcia (Tommy John surgery in May 2023) are both working their way back and should be able to contribute down the stretch. However, Garcia and Javier are out for the remainder of the season (both had elbow surgery in June), and McCullers, who hasn't pitched since 2022, is no certainty to return this year because of a halting recovery from flexor tendon surgery. Even if he is able to pitch in 2024, it might be as a reliever.

All of this is to say, the Astros need some help in the rotation behind ace Framber Valdez, and that's the case even assuming Verlander and Garcia return and fare well. That's the case even with the emergence of Ronel Blanco and the potential breakout of Hunter Brown too.

As for the offense, it will be aided by the eventual return of outfielder Kyle Tucker from a lower-leg injury that's sidelined him since early June. Jon Singleton has stabilized the post-José Abreu first-base role, but he could probably use a platoon partner.

Possible trade targets

The Astros are dangerously close to the second luxury-tax threshold, and crossing it would lead to stiffer penalties (penalties for, you know, trying to win baseball games). Owner Jim Crane's willingness or unwillingness to get into deeper tax territory will help determine GM Dana Brown's list of trade targets. Money will probably matter for this club at this deadline, and taking on bigger salaries may require Brown to send some back the other way. Now for some possible names.

Jack Flaherty DET • SP • #9 ERA 3.13 WHIP .96 IP 100.2 BB 17 K 127 View Profile

In 2024, the 28-year-old right-hander boasts an FIP of 3.16 in 17 starts, and he's struck out 32.4% of opposing hitters – an excellent figure for a starting pitcher. Yes, there are health and durability concerns, but the Astros might have a tolerance for such risk given the aforementioned likely returns of Verlander and Garcia. Flaherty's found a higher tier this season, including career-best success at the command-and-control level. He's on a one-year contract and owed the balance of a $14 million salary.

Erick Fedde CHW • SP • #20 ERA 2.99 WHIP 1.13 IP 111.1 BB 30 K 99 View Profile

Fedde has taken a big step forward in his first season back in the majors after a one-year stint in Korea. He's adjusted his pitch mix and tweaked the shape of his changeup and slider. He presently boasts a 138 ERA+ and a K/BB ratio of 3.30 in 111 1/3 innings. The financial commitment is a modest one, as he's owed the balance of a $7.5 million contract for this season and is under contract for 2025 at the same salary. That's a cheap mid-rotation presence.

Yusei Kikuchi TOR • SP • #16 ERA 4.54 WHIP 1.31 IP 111 BB 28 K 125 View Profile

Kikuchi, 34, has put up a 3.60 FIP in 21 starts with 125 strikeouts in 111 innings. He's owed the balance of a modest $10 million salary for 2024 before reaching free agency this coming winter. His current K/BB ratio of 4.46 is easily the best such mark of his career.

Elsewhere, veteran batsman Justin Turner of the Blue Jays also merits a look. The 39-year-old Turner is predictably in decline these days, but he remains a useful hitter in platoon-advantaged situations – i.e., against lefties. He could pair with Singleton at first base and be a pinch-hitter of first resort against lefty relievers.

What they can give up

The Astros' farm system isn't a particularly strong one at the moment. That's not surprising given that long run of contention noted above. They'd like to avoid dealing outfielder Jacob Melton, their top prospect, but other farmhands/young talents might be in play in the right swap. Those names may include Jake Bloss (currently in the rotation), A.J. Blubaugh, Spencer Arrighetti (currently in the rotation), Brice Matthews, and Joey Loperfido, among others. Bloss or Arrighetti presumably wouldn't be moved unless it was as part of a deal for a starting pitcher. There's enough here to accomplish what's most sorely needed, which is mid to back-end rotation help.