Nico Collins had an incredible breakout in his 3rd season, beating his career highs in receptions by 43, receiving yards by 816 yards, and touchdowns by 6. However, the Wide Receiver room in Houston just got a little more crowded heading into 2024. The Texans traded for Stefon Diggs this off-season, adding a veteran presence to a relatively young Wide Receiver core.
Collins also played in just seven games with Tank Dell, in which Dell played at least 50% of the snaps. In those games, Dell had three finishes as a WR1, two as a WR2, and two as a WR5+. Collins, in the same stretch, had four finishes as a WR1, one as a WR3, and two as a WR5+. In three weeks, both finished as a WR2 or better.
So they’ve shown that their production is not mutually exclusive but more often than not, the Texans keyed in on just one of these WRs. Now, with Diggs mixed in, all three Wide Receivers are bound to be inconsistent weekly. Collins has something that his teammates do not though. Collins' size/speed combo is something quarterbacks dream of.
Nico Collins is 6’ 4” and has a speed score in the 90th percentile (per PlayerProfiler). This combo allows him to make the most of his opportunities. Collins had 3.10 Yards Per Route Run, which was second in the NFL. He finished third in the NFL in Yards After Catch Per Reception (6.9) and sixth in the NFL in Yards Per Reception (16.2).
Nico had three weeks last year where he scored 29+ points (half-PPR), so he does have the ability to win you a week, but with the added competition, it will be difficult to predict when those weeks will be. These efficient numbers are a big part of the reason why Collins' ADP of 19th overall is the earliest of this trio as of right now. Collins is a high-risk, high-reward pick this year.
Our consensus projections for Collins in the 2024 season would be: 74 receptions, 1139 yards, 7 touchdowns through the air and 1 carry for 7 yards and 0 rushing touchdowns.
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