2024 Brickyard 400 odds, lineup, predictions, start time: Model gives surprising NASCAR at Indianapolis picks

Indianapolis Motor Speedway is one of the most iconic venues in motorsports. On Sunday, the NASCAR Cup Series will return for the 2024 Brickyard 400. The green flag drops at 2:30 p.m. ET and this will mark the first time NASCAR has raced on the quad-oval at the Brickyard since 2020, after racing on the road course at Indy the last three seasons. Denny Hamlin is coming off a second-place finish at Pocono last week and is the 15-4 favorite in the 2024 Brickyard 400 odds.

He's followed by Kyle Larson (6-1), Brad Keselowski (8-1) and Ryan Blaney (8-1) in the 2024 NASCAR at Indianapolis odds. Before making any 2024 NASCAR at the Brickyard predictions, be sure to see the latest 2024 Brickyard 400 picks from SportsLine's proven projection model .

Developed by daily Fantasy pro and SportsLine predictive data engineer Mike McClure, this proprietary NASCAR prediction model simulates every race 10,000 times, taking into account factors such as track history and recent results.

It called its first winner of the 2024 season with Kyle Larson in Las Vegas for a 21-5 payout and predicted Denny Hamlin's wins in Bristol at 5-1 and Richmond at 17-4. It also impressively nailed five of Larson's wins during his historic season in 2021. All told, the model has nailed a whopping 18 winners since 2021, including nine last year and three in the first seven races this season. Anyone who followed its lead on those NASCAR picks saw huge returns.

Now, the model simulated the 2024 Brickyard 400 10,000 times. Head to SportsLine to see the complete projected NASCAR at Indianapolis leaderboard .

Top 2024 Brickyard 400 predictions

For the 2024 NASCAR at Indianapolis race, the model is high on Tyler Reddick, even though he's a 12-1 longshot in the latest 2024 Brickyard 400 odds. He's a target for anyone looking for a huge payday. The 28-year-old is currently third in the NASCAR Cup Series standings and he's been a threat to win on an almost-weekly basis of late, finishing top 10 in seven of his last eight starts.

Reddick finished eighth in his only career start on the quad-oval at Indianapolis Motor Speedway and he's had even more success on the grand prix circuit at the Brickyard, winning the 2022 Verizon 200 on the road course and finishing fourth last season. The 23XI Racing team has been clicking and Reddick looks like a serious title contender who should be a factor at IMS this weekend.

Another massive shocker: Ryan Blaney, one of the Vegas favorites at 8-1, barely cracks the top 10. There are far better values in the 2024 NASCAR Indianapolis starting lineup. The defending NASCAR Cup Series champion is only seventh in the NASCAR standings but he's coming off his second win of the season in Pocono last week.

However, he's struggled historically on the quad-oval at Indianapolis Motor Speedway, securing one top-10 finish in six career starts there before NASCAR opted for the road course in 2021. Blaney also finished outside the top 10 in two of his three starts on the road course and it's hard to back the 30-year-old given his struggles at the Brickyard. See which other drivers to avoid and the rest of the projected NASCAR leaderboard at SportsLine .

How to make 2024 NASCAR at the Brickyard picks

The model is also targeting four other drivers with 2024 Brickyard 400 odds of 12-1 or longer to make a serious run at the checkered flag. Anyone who backs these drivers could hit it big. You can see all of the model's NASCAR picks over at SportsLine .

So who wins the 2024 Brickyard 400, and which longshots are must-backs? Check out the latest 2024 NASCAR at Indianapolis odds below, then visit SportsLine now to see the full projected 2024 NASCAR at Indianapolis leaderboard, all from the model that has nailed 18 winners, including three already this year .

2024 Brickyard 400 odds, drivers, lineup

See the full NASCAR at Indianapolis picks at SportsLine .

Denny Hamlin 15-4
Kyle Larson 6-1
Brad Keselowski 8-1
Ryan Blaney 8-1
Chase Elliott 9-1
Martin Truex Jr. 12-1
Christopher Bell 12-1
William Byron 12-1
Tyler Reddick 12-1
Joey Logano 15-1
Chris Buescher 16-1
Ty Gibbs 16-1
Alex Bowman 28-1
Bubba Wallace 28-1
Kyle Busch 35-1
Ross Chastain 35-1
Josh Berry 40-1
Austin Cindric 60-1
Erik Jones 65-1
Daniel Suarez 80-1
Michael McDowell 100-1
Noah Gragson 125-1
Carson Hocevar 125-1
Chase Briscoe 150-1
AJ Allmendinger 150-1
Todd Gilliland 200-1
John Hunter Nemechek 250-1
Justin Haley 300-1
Austin Dillon 300-1
Zane Smith 300-1
Ricky Stenhouse Jr. 350-1
Corey Lajoie 400-1
Jimmie Johnson 500-1
Ryan Preece 500-1
Ty Dillon 500-1
Harrison Burton 1000-1
Daniel Hemric 2500-1
Cody Ware 5000-1
BJ McLeod 5000-1