Deaths on monumental decline: Jacksonville's homicides are on pace for fewer than 100

For two decades, no matter who's been in charge, Jacksonville's sheriff has been embattled with trying to overcome the city's reputation as "the murder capital of Florida." They've stood at podiums in front of TV cameras addressing the violence year after year — 162 homicides, 177, 129, 168 and 157, and that's just in the last five years, according to unofficial Times-Union data.

Well, this year's different. At the halfway mark of 2024, the city is unofficially at 46 homicides — a 31% decrease from the 67 at the same time last year. So Jacksonville is on pace to have fewer than 100 homicides for only the third time in the 21 years since the Times-Union has chronicled the city's death toll .

The last time was 2011 when the city recorded 86 homicides . At this point in 2011 the city also had the same number of homicides at 46, according to Times-Union records.

In a 30-minute interview a few days prior to the midway point, Sheriff T.K. Waters asked his own question: “Why is the media so bent on ruining the reputation of Jacksonville by calling Jacksonville the most violent city or the murder capital of Florida? Because it’s not," he said citing other areas. "… Jacksonville is a really great place and a really great city. The perception that’s being presented is problematic ... it’s almost a celebration when we reach 100 homicides. It’s crazy to me.”

He also noted in the mid- to late-'80s the city had homicide rates of 200-plus with a population that was much lower and now don’t even get close to that.

In the early 2000s, the Times-Union regularly chronicled how Duval County led the state per-capita murder rate for 10 years running . Hence the city was dubbed "the murder capital of Florida" and media and community leaders piled on.

According to the 2023 Florida Incident-Based Reports on the Florida Department of Law Enforcement website , the numbers reported by the Jacksonville Sheriff's Office equaled a murder rate of 12.3. That was lower than the likes of the Palatka Police Department at 19.0, Fort Lauderdale Police Department at 17.4, Ocala Police Department at 16.6, Kissimmee Police Department at 13.3 and several agencies in Miami-Dade County.

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What does Sheriff T.K. Waters attribute to the decline in homicides?

Waters, who took office in November 2022 after winning a special election to replace Mike Williams amid a controversial residency issue forced him out, offered several reasons for this year's improved numbers. Here are some excerpts:

“It’s an indication of the hard work that’s going on in this agency and around this city. I think citizens are very focused on seeing a change and we’re getting cooperation. But we also have done a lot of things in our community, which is one, we are hyper-focused on shooters. We know who a lot of the shooters are. We’re working to either change them or we’re working to put them away, and we’ve been able to do that.”

“We started doing this Violence Reduction Strategy in 2016, and I’ve always said this is not an overnight thing, it’s not a one-year thing. This is something that takes time to evolve. It takes time to start turning things around if you’re doing it the right way. We’re doing that on top of 2019, we opened our Gun Crime Intelligence Center. We focused heavily on the people we know are shooters. We’ve gotten some pretty huge repeat shooters off of our streets that are now either in prison or are facing prison time. That doesn’t mean other shooters aren’t going to rise up, but at the same time we’re hyper-focused on dealing with those guys who shoot pretty consistently.”

“There was a huge blowback for some years where people were discouraged against proactive policing and proactive patrols. But a patrol officer’s job is not just answering calls for service. A patrol officer’s job is about going out, looking for those that are in our community to do others harm. I’ve put an emphasis on us continuing to do that, no matter how tough the circumstances. It’s our responsibility.”

“On top of that, [we’re] really being focused on drugs in our community. Really being focused on those shooters that have put themselves on the radar because of the things they’ve done. I think [it's] a combination of all those things and the cooperation from our community. I think people have seen that regardless of whether I ran for office as a Republican or a Democrat or whatever you are, my goal in this city is to make this city as safe as possible for everyone that lives here. I think people are starting to realize that’s what I care about. Whether you’re a Republican, Democrat, we’re all Americans, we’re all Jacksonvillians. We all deserve the right to live together in peace and not, not, be held under the thumb of people that want to hurt and victimize others.”

What does Mayor Donna Deegan think about the decline in homicides?

Mayor Donna Deegan, the Democratic underdog who outsed the Republicans in the 2023 elections, offered her thoughts about the sharp reduction in deaths.

"I believe Jacksonville is stronger when everyone is working together," she said. "We have seen evidence of that in the way our community has responded to last year’s high homicide rate by working to address the root causes of violent crime. We look forward to partnering with law enforcement and community stakeholders as we continue to roll out my administration’s initiative, the Jacksonville Journey Forward ."

Deegan, who recently signed a tentative agreement that will give double-digit pay raises to police and corrections officers while making a historic return to offering pensions , said it is crucial to remain vigilant and committed to supporting efforts that ensure sustained progress.

"There is still work to be done," the mayor said. "We need to continue expanding access to mental health services, job training and educational opportunities, particularly in disinvested communities. Additionally, addressing systemic issues such as poverty and inequality is vital for long-term change. The Journey Forward will focus on all of these pieces of the puzzle."

Deegan and Waters also have worked together although each represents a different political party.

"We continue to have consistent engagement as we address local public safety concerns," she said. "This includes regular meetings, listening to residents' concerns and working collaboratively to develop solutions."

She said the general public is pivotal to this as well.

"The community can play a crucial role by actively participating in neighborhood watch programs, mentoring at-risk youth and supporting local organizations that aim to reduce violence," Deegan said. "It’s also important for community members to report suspicious activities and work together to create a safe environment for everyone . "

Response to Black-on-Back crime and violence

The sheriff was asked to speak to the reasons and solutions to the taboo subject that year after year the majority of victims and those arrested have been Black . Last year it was proportionately even worse in Jacksonville with 129 Black homicide victims compared to 28 white, and 50 Black suspects charged with murder or manslaughter compared to 17 white.

“I don’t think it’s a tough topic at all," Waters said. "It is what it is, that’s the facts. … What bears it out is there’s almost a genocide taking place in inner cities all across this country. People get angry with me because I say it, but guess what, I lost a first cousin to murder. He got murdered for being in the wrong apartment complex. It is a problem. It’s a huge problem.

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"The issue is getting enough people to say we don’t accept, nor do we tolerate, that in our communities," he continued. "I don’t think there’s a socioeconomic reason for it. There’s no reason in the world to murder people. It doesn’t make sense, other than trying to defend your own life against someone who is trying to murder you.

"The frustration comes in, for me being a Black man myself, is to listen to people my age and above to say stuff like, ‘Yeah, but we don’t have the resources.’ What do resources have to do with murdering people?" he asked. "I tell you what it is, they haven’t been to enough crime scenes to look at what we look at, what I’ve looked at over the last 30 years of my life, and be fed up with it. Well, I am. I hate that it happens, and that’s why I have this attitude that I have that some people may not necessarily like … I don’t accept any reason for violent crime and victimizing people.”

What about all the youth violence?

Next up is the continuing trend of young people being involved in violence . Five of the victims this year in Jacksonville were 14 to 17 years old, and the two 16-year-olds who were killed last month at Island Pointe apartments both had two prior arrests and one had previously been shot in the leg, according to court records.

Here's what the sheriff had to say:

“I think the influences that young people have, I think we live in a world that is heavily influenced by social media. When they see stuff on social media, they think social media’s real life. Like the metaverse … it’s like living in another dimension, but it really isn’t. Really what you’re doing on social media and these rap videos and all this other stuff, it really bleeds over into real life. There’s no other dimension. Real life is what’s happening in communities across this country.

"But I can tell you that if we can get a hold of young men and women early, and not necessarily the police, I think someone else has to pick up the mantle before they start having contact with us, or negative contact which would be arrests and things of that nature. If you can get a hold of those young people and get them going in a positive direction, instead of telling them that they cannot succeed because somebody is stopping them from succeeding, there’s not a young person in America today that can’t accomplish anything that they want to accomplish as long as they prepare themselves for it.

"That’s my message. I have too many examples I can name, one of which is my wonderful wife who’s my hero. The odds say the way she grew up, she should be a statistic. Didn’t happen — because she made a choice early on in her life that she wasn’t going down that road. So it’s all about decision-making, it’s all about making sure that we have the right mentors and the right people to help guide young men and women in our community, especially young ones. There’s a way, but you have to get a hold of young people early and stop using ghosts around every corner to say that this is the reason I can’t succeed.

"It involves a mindset, it helps them believe I can’t succeed. Well how come I’m born in the ‘60s and I can. How come my wife is born three years before I was, but she can? How come many, many people in this agency today and all around this country can succeed once they just set their mind to doing what they’re capable of doing and preparing themselves for.”

What's the Jacksonville community saying about this year's homicides?

Moms Demand Action and ICARE (Interfaith Coalition for Action, Reconciliation and Empowerment) recently organized a peace march for the 10th Gun Violence Awareness Day & Wear Orange Weekend event in Jacksonville.

Jean Francis of Moms Demand Action said it is still too early to say what has been different this year but noted a similar drop in killings across the nation thus far.

"More resources to law enforcement, a lower jobless rate and community-wide awareness of the issue may all be factors," she said. "Although I do not have statistics or evidence, it seems that more perpetrators are being arrested and convicted quickly. In addition to good policing, this may indicate that efforts of groups like MAD DADS and Quench the Violence to 'end the silence' may be contributing factors."

What does she think still needs to change? "The recognition that this is everyone's problem and everyone can  contribute to ending it. ... The whole community needs to support development in the Eastside, Westside and Northside. Support  violence-interruption programs such as the Black Chamber's program "From Handguns to Nailguns.'"

Francis also said legislators need to be held accountable as well.

"States that have lax gun safety laws have the highest incidence of gun violence, and Florida is moving in that direction," she said. "Strengthening the secure storage law will decrease gun theft and gun trafficking, deter gun suicide and unintentional shootings. Leave the  Marjory Stoneman Douglas Act intact; in fact, there is room to improve it. Watering it down and laws like permitless carry just support and entice criminals and make law enforcement's job riskier. They do not promote responsible gun ownership or make the community safer."

The Rev. Adam Gray, pastor at Riverside Church at Park and King and secretary on ICARE’s board , said every life saved by a reduction in gun violence should be celebrated. He also spelled out "three concerns that temper our excitement about the first six months of this year":

• 1. Six months is a good start after decades of high gun violence in Jacksonville, but it would be irresponsible to declare victory and move on before we’ve seen a longer-term decline.
• 2. Murders are down 26% nationwide, so part of what we’re seeing is a national trend rather than the result of a targeted approach in Jacksonville. ICARE’s hoped-for target is a 40% decline in murders beyond the national trend. We’re making progress by being about 15% better than the national numbers, but there’s more work to do.
• 3. A Jacksonville-based rapper was recently murdered in Tampa on his birthday. That murder is clearly related to Jacksonville’s group-violence dynamic but won’t be reported as a Jacksonville murder. We’ve got to keep working on addressing the cycles of group violence that drive up to half of the murders in our city.

About Jacksonville's homicide numbers

For full disclosure, the Times-Union's homicide figures are typically a couple off from what the Sheriff's Office lists on its Open Data & Transparency page at transparency.jaxsheriff.org under the category Jacksonville Homicide Data.

There are usually a few reasons mostly dealing with the timing of the homicide ruling, jurisdiction or type of death. This year has become more problematic to research because the Sheriff's Office has gone to a new automated system that no longer provides access to the homicides currently being investigated as "pending classification."

The Times-Union has thoroughly chronicled and reported on the numbers the same way since 2003, including all homicides and those still in pending status. The status can take months to determine, and historically not many drop off completely, for instance if a death is determined to be a suicide or overdose.

From what the Times-Union can deduce, the current pending cases involve possible self-defense or children.

It is important to note that murders and homicides are not one in the same. A homicide is one person killing another but includes justifiable, excusable and accidental. So not all homicides are classified as murder, which is the unlawful killing of a person.

For consistency's sake, the Times-Union is not changing how it reports on homicides. However, the Sheriff's Office's new system is no longer listing police shootings as homicides (this year there have been two) , even under the "pending classification" category or when the State Attorney's Office has ruled them justified like six in 2022.

This was brought up to the sheriff, who advised he was not aware of the discrepancy. He said he does not plan to change the site because police shootings are already listed separately under "Officer-Involved Shootings" and it could cause duplication.

“I believe we’re being wholly transparent with the officer-involved shooting site, but they’re just classified a little differently," Waters said. "But it’s still a homicide investigation, it’s still a homicide. It’s just a justifiable homicide involving a police officer, in most cases.”

This article originally appeared on Florida Times-Union: Deaths on monumental decline: Jacksonville's homicides are on pace for fewer than 100