Fantasy football outlook: Jacksonville Jaguars wide receivers

The Jacksonville Jaguars‘ receiver room is undergoing significant change. Calvin Ridley had a strong fantasy season as the big dog in the yard (76-1,016-8) but left in free agency. In response, the Jags signed Gabe Davis in free agency and used a first-round draft pick on Brian Thomas Jr., who both bring deep speed to the roster.

Incumbent Christian Kirk is returning from injury and return specialist Devin Duvernay likely holds down a roster spot due to his availability on two of three units.

The Jaguars paid Trevor Lawrence franchise player money without franchise production to date. It’s time for Lawrence to make the jump to stardom, and it will take these guys to get him there.

Christian Kirk

Kirk came into Jacksonville in 2022 and earned his money by catching 84 passes for 1,108 yards and eight touchdowns. Last year was a step backward with Ridley as the primary guy.

In 12 games, he caught 57 passes for 787 yards and three touchdowns. Kirk had big games, but they were spaced out. However, he scored enough points consistently that it made him difficult to bench. Kirk lived up to the numbers from 2022, but missed five games.

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Thomas and Davis are going to get there shots. However, the two years Kirk and Lawrence have had together is going to pay dividends. If he’s healthy, Kirk is Lawrence’s security blanket – and that brings value.

Gabe Davis

Davis was brought in during predraft free agency to bring a speed receiver with a history (with Josh Allen, no less) of having huge weeks … but then disappearing. Last season, he logged five games with 87 or more receiving yards and had a four-game streak of scoring a touchdown. Davis also had five games with no receptions – all of them coming in the last nine games.

When he’s big, he’s huge. When he’s cold, he’s icy cold.

Davis will start the season opposite Kirk as the three-down guys. All that matters is how quickly Thomas ascends to the big-play downfield target.

Brian Thomas Jr.

Another LSU receiver who absolutely blew up in his only full season as a starter, Thomas caught 68 passes for 1,177 yards and 17 touchdowns in 13 games in 2023. At 6-foot-3, 210, and getting bigger, he runs a full NFL route tree and doesn’t get the yips going over the middle. His second contract is going to be tied directly to Lawrence’s.

Thomas needs to add some field-strength to avoid being blown off the line against physical corners. The packages including him will likely highlight Thomas as the first option until he proves capable of handling the beating that’s coming.

He is likely a work in progress, but the progress could come quickly.

Devin Duvernay

Duvernay spent four seasons with the Baltimore Ravens and was primarily a return specialist but saw his role in the offense increase each of his first three seasons, peaking with 37 catches for 407 yards, 12 rushes for 84 yards, and five touchdowns (three receiving, one rushing, and one on a 103-yard kickoff return.)

Last year, Duvernay caught just four passes in 13 games and comes to Jacksonville looking to reclaim his career, but he may have to spend training camp trying to keep some young unknown from taking his roster spot. Duvernay’s spot on the roster isn’t guaranteed, but it’s likely.

Fantasy football outlook

Despite the Jaguars signing Lawrence to a massive contract, they don’t have the type of receiving corps that is viewed as elite – much less with two of the top receivers on the team not being wide receivers – tight end Evan Engram and running back Travis Etienne.

There is the potential to get each of the top three Jaguars wide receivers at a discount price, but it’s for a reason. Kirk is a mid- to late-value WR3 in a 12-owner league, landing where lead wide receivers for teams end up in the early 30s of wide receiver ADP charts.

Thomas and Davis are likely going to end being drafted close to one another in the early- to mid-WR5 range, and both could be high-value targets at that point of drafts. It’s always a dice-roll on a first-year wide receiver, but as a No. 5 Thomas doesn’t have to be a lineup staple early on. Davis has always been in the WR4 or WR5 range because he disappears too often yet can put together the dice-roll monster week in a pinch.

The Jaguars are going to be Lawrence’s team through the end of the decade and expectations are high. Yet, as of now, the values are low on his wide receivers, and this should be a buyer’s market to land one of them with the potential to be a steal. It isn’t clear which one steps up, which devalues all three too much. Kirk is the safest bet for weekly offerings.