Rashee Rice slowly saw his role build last year with Kansas City and eventually became a focal point for their passing attack. Rice had an average snap share of 37.5% through the first six games. That jumped to 63.5% in the following six games and jumped again to 82.5% in his final four games of the regular season. He averaged 7.9 points per game (ppg) in half-PPR formats in the first six games.
In the next six games, that increased to 11.4 ppg and then again to 14.1 ppg in the final four games. Rice's 17-game pace over his final 10 games would have been 99 receptions off of 126 targets for 1,178 yards and 9 touchdowns. That would have given him 221.3 points in half-PPR formats, which would have placed him as WR9 last year. Rice will have new competition in this offense this year, though.
The Chiefs drafted rookie WR Xavier Worthy and signed veteran WR Marquise Brown. Both players are shorter and lighter than your prototypical NFL wide receiver, which would lead many to believe they would be suited for the slot role in this offense. However, Brown has yet to run 38% of his routes from the slot in the NFL, and Worthy has not topped that mark in college. Rice ran 49.8% of his routes from the slot and 49.3% of his routes out wide despite his bigger frame.
Kelce is the other player who operates out of the slot the most for the Chiefs. For the past three years, Kelce ran at least 44% of his routes from the slot. Given that Rice has already had success both inside and outside, he should finish with the highest routes run per game of the Chiefs' wide receivers. I say per game because of the potential suspension Rice could face this season.
At this time, there are no reports regarding discipline from the NFL. There has been no legal case yet, and we've seen the NFL delay suspension to the next season in the past. If Rice is to be suspended, most analysts have speculated it will be between 3 - 6 games, with some saying it could be up to 8 games. Rice's ADP has dropped due to the potential suspension. His current ADP is 7.06 and WR37 overall. Rice was WR27 last season in half-ppr formats and will undoubtedly beat his ADP this season if he is not suspended.
Our consensus projections for Rice in the 2024 season would be 60 receptions, 751 yards, and 5 touchdowns through the air.
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