Nice Sunday ahead, tropical impacts possible Wednesday and Thursday

We’re starting off our Sunday nice with temperatures in the mid-60s and mostly clear skies! Temperatures warming into the mid-80s under mostly sunny skies later this afternoon.

We’ll see another cool morning for tomorrow morning before temperatures warm into the upper 80s tomorrow afternoon with increasing clouds.

Rain chances look to increase, especially for areas south of I-10, starting Tuesday.

Rain chances will be rapidly increasing Wednesday and Thursday associated with a low pressure area, currently across the Bay of Campeche, which will be moving northward into the area. The National Hurricane Center is currently giving this area a ‘high’ chance of tropical development. Tropical consolidation and development looks likely through the next 24-36 hours with surface pressures lowering in this area of the southern Gulf.

Tropical models suggest a general movement to the northwest for Monday and Tuesday, with a bend back to the north and northeast Wednesday. This would bring the system near the Louisiana coast by Wednesday night and Thursday morning.

Intensity models and forecasts will be better once the system actually develops, but most intensity models show the possibility of a tropical storm, but a weak hurricane cannot be ruled out. Wind shear will be high across the northern Gulf coast, so the main factor will be the latitude of the storm at certain points in the forecast, which will determine if the system stays south of the strongest belt of shear. A more northerly and faster system would encounter more wind shear and most likely be weaker, while a more southerly, slower-moving, storm will likely encounter less shear and be able to strengthen further. These details will have to be ironed out through the next few days. At this point, I would say heavy rainfall is probably the more pressing concern for us in Acadiana. Both the GFS and European model show the possibility of anywhere from 4-8 inches of rainfall across the area Wednesday and Thursday with isolated hot spots. Any type of wind threat is totally dependent on the eventual strength of this system.

Winds offshore will get strong starting Wednesday morning and continuing through Thursday morning. High seas and Gale-force conditions likely!

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