Why Tennessee football schedule in 2024 might be tougher than I first thought | Adams

The time between the start of SEC Media Days and the opening week of college football seemingly drags on interminably. In the meantime, speculation rules the day.

There’s plenty of time to think about how the season might go – so much time, in fact, that thinking can give way to rethinking. Maybe, that’s why I’m having second thoughts about Tennessee’s season.

Past seasons factors into that. Anyone familiar with SEC football can look at a schedule and designate games as likely wins, losses, or games that could go either way. But schedules rarely unfold in that manner.

For example, how could you have foreseen what happened to the Vols in Columbia, South Carolina, two years ago?

The Vols were still in the running for the College Football Playoff. South Carolina was wobbling around in mediocrity before suddenly turning Tennessee’s season topsy-turvy in an inexplicable 63-38 upset.

Last season’s Tennessee-Missouri game wasn’t as glaring but still is an example of how preseason predictions can go terribly awry. The Tigers proved to be more competent team than the Vols, but that didn’t account for the on-the-field disparity in Missouri’s 36-7 victory.

In preseason of last year, I slotted Missouri for sixth place in the SEC East. It finished eighth in the country. Oops.

Could there be a team like Missouri on this season’s Tennessee schedule that I’ve grossly underestimated? Perhaps, but probably not to that extent. However, upon further review, I might have been guilty of underestimating four of UT’s SEC opponents – Alabama, Oklahoma, Florida, and Kentucky.

I would favor UT over Alabama as a playoff team, mainly because the Vols will have the home-field advantage for their matchup. But I’ve raised my opinion of Alabama, because of its offensive potential. It might have the best offensive line in the country, and new coach Kalen DeBoer proved at Washington last season how well he can capitalize on good line play.

I don’t consider Oklahoma a playoff team – its schedule is too challenging for that – but I like its chances against Tennessee because of its defense. This should be the most talented and experienced defense Brent Venables has had in three Oklahoma seasons, and he proved as a coordinator at Clemson he can bring out the best in a defense.

Neither Kentucky nor Florida poses as much of a threat to Tennessee. However, I think more highly of both teams than I did in January.

With nine starters returning, Kentucky will field one of the SEC’s most experienced defenses. That’s not counting Georgia transfer linebacker Jamon Dumas-Johnson, an All-SEC player.

The offense isn’t as experienced, and I question how good the Wildcats will be in the offensive line and at running back. But they should be better off at quarterback with Georgia transfer Brock Vandagriff than they were with Devin Leary.

Florida could be the most improved team in the SEC, but you would never know it because of the Gators schedule. Although I doubt they can win enough games to make its third-year coach Billy Napier a fourth-year coach, they should be better in the first half of the season than the second when their schedule will take a toll. Florida plays at Neyland Stadium on Oct. 12.

Florida’s last five games are as daunting as any stretch you will ever see in the SEC: Georgia, Texas, LSU, Ole Miss and Florida State. All five are playoff contenders.

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Compared to that, Tennessee’s schedule is a breeze. The Vols’ toughest games should be against Oklahoma, Georgia, and Alabama. If they win one of those games, they could finish 10-2 by sweeping the lesser teams on their schedule.

That’s doable unless one of those “lesser” teams turns into Missouri of last season.

John Adams is a senior columnist. He may be reached at 865-342-6284 orjohn.adams@knoxnews.com. Follow him at: twitter.com/johnadamskns.