September forecast: When will triple digits end?

AUSTIN (KXAN) — The newest outlook for September’s weather from the Climate Prediction Center is unlikely to give us much of a break from a persistent pattern of hotter temperatures throughout Central Texas that kicked in early August.

The temperature outlook for September is warmer than normal for all of Texas and most of the Continental United States. No parts of the lower 48 are anticipated to have a cooler-than-normal September.

There is, however, some optimism for near-normal rainfall in September for most of Central Texas. September is actually one of our wetter months of the year, on average.

What is normal in Austin in September?

• Average high Sept. 1: 95º
• Average high Sept. 30: 88º
• Average low Sept. 1: 73º
• Average low Sept. 30: 66º
• Third-hottest month of the year
• Average rainfall: 3.45″ (fourth-wettest month of the year)
• Average number of triple-digit days: Three

What about the tropics?

September is historically the busiest month of the year for the Atlantic Basin. The Atlantic Basin averages 5.5 named storms and 3.3 hurricanes.

Through mid-August we’ve already had five named storms with the formation of Ernesto and numerous updated hurricane forecasts point to a very active remainder of the season.

Atlantic Hurricane Season’s historical peak is Sept. 10.

In-Depth: When will the triple digits end?

The 30-year average (1991-2020) final triple-digit day in Austin comes around Aug. 30. We also typically average three days of 100º or hotter in the month of September. All this to say triple digits will still be possible in September, but history says they’re much less frequent than July and August.

Nineteen of the last 30 years have had triple-digits days continue into September, and they’ve become more frequent since the year 2000.

Our current triple-digit stretch began on Monday, Aug. 12, and should continue through at least Aug. 23. Some of our long-term computer models suggest a dip out of the triple digits is possible soon after that.

Stay with the First Warning Weather Team as we track the heat and any potential cooling rains.

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