Preview: UFC 303 Prelims

Despite a reshuffled main draw, the UFC 303 undercard has remained relatively intact with an interesting blend of prospects and veterans this Saturday at T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas. The featured fight might be the most interesting of the bunch, as Joe Pyfer looks to rebound from his first Ultimate Fighting Championship loss against an improving under-the-radar middleweight veteran in Marc-Andre Barriault . Meanwhile, Cub Swanson and Andre Fili square off in a match that somehow has not been made until now, and former heavyweight champion Andrei Arlovski returns to add another chapter to one of the promotion’s most prolific careers. Space has also been cleared for some young guns—bantamweight Payton Talbott and flyweight Rei Tsuruya are high-upside prospects—and some pure entertainment. Charles Jourdain almost always provides his share of excitement, and a bantamweight tilt pitting Ricky Simon against Vinicius Oliveira figures to bring guaranteed violence.

Now to the preview for the UFC 303 prelims:

Middleweights

Joe Pyfer (12-3, 3-1 UFC) vs. Marc-Andre Barriault (16-7, 5-6 UFC)

ODDS: Pyfer (-298), Barriault (+240)

Now that he’s hit his ceiling for the time being, it’ll be interesting to see how Pyfer regroups here. Pyfer’s first audition for the UFC went about as poorly as possible. Facing Dustin Stoltzfus on Dana White’s Contender Series in 2020, Pyfer accomplished little before gruesomely breaking his arm. “Bodybagz” made a full recovery and eventually picked up where he left off, finding his way back to DWCS two years later, scoring a quick finish and earning his long-awaited UFC contract. From there, Pyfer’s rise was notable in just how clean it was. He put his gigantic frame to good use, either knocking out or tapping out his opponents in short order, and showed a good sense for picking his spots to strike. That led to Pyfer’s first main event against Jack Hermansson , which wound up clearly being too much too soon, even with an impressive performance. He dominated the first two rounds, only to run out of ideas once Hermansson stuck around, allowing the longtime veteran to stage a comeback and sweep the last three frames for the decision victory. Now comes time for the rebound, and Pyfer doesn’t get a soft touch against Barriault, who has had a surprisingly solid UFC career. Barriault was a standout on the Canadian scene before he signed with the UFC in 2019, but “Power Bar” got by with a mashing style that figured to hit a clear ceiling against better competition. That proved true until Barriault upended his life and training situation, at which point he saw some immediate improvement. There’s now some actual craft to his striking game, which is still backed up by Barriault’s impressive psychology. Barriault might have lost his last fight to Chris Curtis via split decision, but it would’ve been unthinkable a few years ago that he would be able to hang in a striking match against someone as crafty as the former CES MMA champion. Pyfer should be the rare opponent to have Barriault physically outgunned, and while he might only have two rounds worth of ideas, that should be enough in a three-round fight. He might have to hang on late for the win, but the pick is Pyfer via decision.

Jump To »
Pyfer vs. Barriault
Fili vs. Swanson
Jourdain vs. Silva
Talbott vs. Ghemmouri
Robertson vs. Waterson-Gomez
Buday vs. Arlovski
Tsuruya vs. Hernandez
Simon vs. Oliveira

Featherweights

Andre Fili (23-11, 11-10 UFC) vs. Cub Swanson (29-13, 14-9 UFC)

ODDS: Fili (-245), Swanson (+200)

His appearances are increasingly rare, but Swanson still keeps chugging along at an impressively high level. Swanson had a prolific career full of exciting fights without ever getting over the hump into championship contention, and he figured to have a style that would age poorly. A lot of his approach centered around a funky striking style that relied heavily on his reflexes and athleticism. However, Swanson has aged in surprisingly graceful fashion. His four-loss slide out of the UFC’s rankings contained some hard-fought efforts, and while he has suffered two knockout losses—his first since 2009—in his last four fights, he has also put together some electric finishes of Daniel Pineda and Darren Elkins , along with a hard-fought decision victory over Hakeem Dawodu in August. Swanson’s slowing down but still viable at 40 years old, so it’s worth appreciating each of his fights; and the UFC did well to pair him with Fili in a matchup of action-focused veterans that somehow hasn’t already happened. Fili had some hype as a top prospect ahead of his UFC debut in 2013, though that slowly petered out after an inconsistent start to his UFC career. He’d mix in impressive victories with frustrating losses, though defeats to Max Holloway , Yair Rodriguez and Calvin Kattar would all age well in the long run. Once known for his lapses in decision making, “Touchy” has rounded into a smart and versatile fighter who’s as sharp as ever, settling in as a gatekeeper to the divisional elite. Even in his career-best form, quick knockout losses to Joanderson Brito and Dan Ige in recent years have shown that Fili will always struggle with an athletic ceiling. This should be the type of go-everywhere scrap where the result is secondary. Fili gets the nod as the younger and sharper fighter, but it wouldn’t be a shock if this goes either way, particularly since either man can end the fight with one well-paced counter. The pick is Fili via decision.

Jump To »
Pyfer vs. Barriault
Fili vs. Swanson
Jourdain vs. Silva
Talbott vs. Ghemmouri
Robertson vs. Waterson-Gomez
Buday vs. Arlovski
Tsuruya vs. Hernandez
Simon vs. Oliveira

Featherweights

Charles Jourdain (15-7-1, 6-6-1 UFC) vs. Jean Silva (12-2, 1-0 UFC)

ODDS: Jourdain (-120), Silva (+100)

Once again, it’s unclear what to expect from Jourdain coming into a fight, as he could either eventually find the consistency to break through to championship contention or just wind up as a consistently inconsistent fighter. Jourdain came to the UFC in 2019 as one of Canada’s top prospects, even though he obviously had a lot to clean up. His approach was mostly built around hunting for the highlight-reel finish and figuring out the rest later, and he managed to chain together enough dynamic offense to keep his head above water at the UFC level. Jourdain eventually showed some flashes of a more technical and intelligent approach, and a win over Kron Gracie in May 2023 was a positive sign. It was an ugly fight against a one-dimensional fighter, but avoiding his opponent’s most dangerous skills for three rounds was a clear indication of progress for Jourdain. Then came his last two fights, a win over Ricardo Ramos that saw him repeatedly hunt for guillotine chokes until one somehow worked and a shockingly flat effort in a decision loss to Sean Woodson . At this point, anything seems possible with Jourdain, which makes for a hard fight to parse against Silva, who’s still fairly unproven at this level. A stocky ball of muscle with some obvious power, Silva earned a contract with a workmanlike decision win on the Contender Series in 2023, then followed it up with a knockout win over Westin Wilson in his UFC debut in January. When Silva springs into action, he can cause some serious damage. However, that Contender Series win did raise some concerns that the Brazilian is overly content to pick his spots, and this might be the level where that tendency starts to cause some issues. Given that Jourdain has never been knocked out and is usually content to pump out the type of volume that should be enough to outwork Silva, the Canadian gets the benefit of the doubt. Again, though, it seems to be hard to predict at this point exactly what a Jourdain fight will look like. The pick is Jourdain via decision.

Jump To »
Pyfer vs. Barriault
Fili vs. Swanson
Jourdain vs. Silva
Talbott vs. Ghemmouri
Robertson vs. Waterson-Gomez
Buday vs. Arlovski
Tsuruya vs. Hernandez
Simon vs. Oliveira

Bantamweights

Payton Talbott (8-0, 2-0 UFC) vs. Yanis Ghemmouri (12-2, 0-1 UFC)

ODDS: Talbott (-1600), Ghemmouri (+900)

Talbott was one of the standouts of the 2023 edition of the Contender Series, and the 25-year-old has done an impressive job of building on that potential. Talbott’s career has shown a clear understanding that pace and activity is what wins most mixed martial arts fights, though there was the belief that he’d have to clean up his technique at some point. He has the youthful durability to eat whatever offense comes his way and keep swamping his opponent in volume, but wrestlers and grapplers have typically found success slowing Talbott’s momentum for long stretches at a time. That was the case in his UFC debut against Nick Aguirre , which eventually turned into a late Talbott win. However, Talbott’s March victory over Cameron Saaiman showed that his defensive issues might not even matter for the time being. Talbott was suddenly precise enough in his offense that he was able to finish a historically durable fighter with little issue. Ghemmouri is next up for Talbott in what seems to be set up as a showcase fight for the younger prospect, though this is a much better fight for the Frenchman to show his wares than his UFC debut. Due to some late card shuffling in September, he wound up debuting up a weight class and getting neutralized by countryman William Gomis . Ghemmouri is a solid wrestler and grappler who mostly looks to hit big counters on the feet, and he’s rangy enough to cause some issues for Talbott. Still, with Talbott’s commitment to pressure and volume, the American figures to clearly win rounds if not pour things on enough to finish the fight outright. The pick is Talbott via decision.

Jump To »
Pyfer vs. Barriault
Fili vs. Swanson
Jourdain vs. Silva
Talbott vs. Ghemmouri
Robertson vs. Waterson-Gomez
Buday vs. Arlovski
Tsuruya vs. Hernandez
Simon vs. Oliveira

Women’s Strawweights

Gillian Robertson (13-8, 10-6 UFC) vs. Michelle Waterson-Gomez (18-12, 6-8 UFC)

ODDS: Robertson (-185), Waterson-Gomez (+154)

This is an interesting fight between two strawweight veterans in need of some momentum. At 29 years old, Robertson still has the potential for improvement, but she seems to mostly be a finished product in terms of overall approach. For now, it’s just a matter of waiting to see if things fully click through comfort and experience. “The Savage” came to the UFC through “The Ultimate Fighter” in 2017 and looked like an interesting long-term prospect, mostly on the back of an impressively vicious grappling game that found some unexpected submissions. Those skills have translated nicely over the ensuing six and a half years—Robertson has the most submission wins of any woman in UFC history—but things have been much more of an adventure on the feet. She has obviously put in the work from a technical standpoint, but things tend to go south in the face of much resistance, whether it’s Robertson becoming uncomfortable when she gets hit hard or her being unable to track down opponents who stay at range. A cut down to 115 pounds in 2023 hasn’t changed those dynamics much, as Robertson is still a crushing grappler who now has to deal with even faster opponents on the feet, so the hope is that she keeps winning about two-thirds of her fights until she finds the comfort for a late-career championship run. Waterson-Gomez makes for an interesting test in the meantime, as “The Karate Hottie” might be in her career-best form at age 38 despite losing six of her last seven. A natural atomweight when the UFC signed her in 2015, Waterson-Gomez figured to have a low ceiling as an undersized striker up at strawweight, but she proved to have a surprisingly successful front half of her UFC career. She added enough bulk to be credible as a wrestler, and the switch-up between that and her range-focused striking style was enough to stay ahead of more limited opponents. However, the combination of Waterson-Gomez fighting her way into more high-profile fights and the strawweight division filling up with younger athletes has caused her to hit a clear ceiling. Her skills are as sharp as ever, but relative powerhouses like Amanda Lemos and Luana Pinheiro have left Waterson-Gomez with little margin for error to get a win over the finish line. Robertson isn’t that type of athlete, which makes this the American’s most advantageous matchup in a while. Robertson could still cause plenty of damage if she can get this fight to the ground, but Waterson-Gomez appears fast enough that she can dictate the terms of engagement. The pick is Waterson-Gomez via decision.

Jump To »
Pyfer vs. Barriault
Fili vs. Swanson
Jourdain vs. Silva
Talbott vs. Ghemmouri
Robertson vs. Waterson-Gomez
Buday vs. Arlovski
Tsuruya vs. Hernandez
Simon vs. Oliveira

Heavyweights

Martin Buday (13-2, 4-1 UFC) vs. Andrei Arlovski (34-23, 23-17 UFC)

ODDS: Buday (-258), Arlovski (+210)

It does seem like Arlovski’s prolific career is entering its final phase now that the former UFC heavyweight champion is in his mid-40s, but it’s always hard to entirely write “The Pit Bull” off. It has been about a decade and a half since Arlovski suffered a string of knockouts and flat performances that had most hoping for his retirement, but he somehow persevered, rediscovering his durability enough to return to the UFC and even charge up the ladder to the fringes of title contention. Arlovski’s career has been continued on as a series of runs, with him either chaining together crafty victories or going on a disheartening losing streak, but there was always the feeling that he’d eventually find his floor. If an opponent couldn’t knock Arlovski out or consistently outwrestle him, he’d be able to patch enough things together to score the decision victory. However, Arlovski does look to have slipped enough for that to no longer be guaranteed. Don’Tale Mayes , the type of aimless athlete Arlovski usually outworks, was able to knock out the Belarusian, and Waldo Cortes-Acosta ’s limited game was enough to coast out a decision win against him. Given those results, this fight against Buday seems to be a rough matchup. The Slovakian might be coming off a disheartening loss, but he has generally learned to put things together and pour on the pressure. Buday’s style can be a bit ugly at times, as “Badys” can often rely on his size to neutralize and smother his opponents, but he’s increasingly able to keep plodding forward and make things happen. While his durability surprisingly betrayed him against Shamil Gaziev in December, Buday has historically been quite difficult to hurt or discourage from moving forward. It’s a stylistic matchup that has been difficult for Arlovski even in his better moments of the past decade, so unless the Gaziev loss has made Buday increasingly cautious, this looks like a clear win for the relative upstart. The pick is Buday via second-round stoppage.

Jump To »
Pyfer vs. Barriault
Fili vs. Swanson
Jourdain vs. Silva
Talbott vs. Ghemmouri
Robertson vs. Waterson-Gomez
Buday vs. Arlovski
Tsuruya vs. Hernandez
Simon vs. Oliveira

Flyweights

Rei Tsuruya (9-0, 0-0 UFC) vs. Carlos Hernandez (9-3, 2-2 UFC)

ODDS: Tsuruya (-485), Hernandez (+370)

Japanese talent is finally starting to have another moment inside the UFC, and Tsuruya’s promotional debut is another step along that path. Tsuruya was marked as one of the favorites to win the flyweight bracket of the 2023 Road to UFC tournament, and he cashed in on those expectations, mostly running through the competition to earn a UFC contract. Tsuruya’s striking isn’t much, but the freshly turned 22-year-old is able to lean on his wrestling and grappling early and often, continually dragging his opponents to the mat in order to implement his creative submission game. Tsuruya makes his UFC debut against Hernandez, who might experience a bit of deja vu, having just lost to another Japanese grappling standout in Tatsuro Taira in December. Hernandez has settled in as a well-rounded gatekeeper, and the UFC has been content to keep matching him with opponents who look to take the fight to the mat. That has resulted in some hard-fought wins, a quick submission loss to Allan Nascimento and the Taira fight, where Hernandez did an impressive job of avoiding submissions, only to get knocked out. That showing can serve as a bit of a cautionary tale for Tsuruya, who doesn’t have any sort of knockout threat on the feet to fall back on, but he does look like the type of grappler who can find a finish where Taira could not. The pick is Tsuruya via second-round submission.

Jump To »
Pyfer vs. Barriault
Fili vs. Swanson
Jourdain vs. Silva
Talbott vs. Ghemmouri
Robertson vs. Waterson-Gomez
Buday vs. Arlovski
Tsuruya vs. Hernandez
Simon vs. Oliveira

Bantamweights

Ricky Simon (20-5, 8-4 UFC) vs. Vinicius Oliveira (20-3, 1-0 UFC)

ODDS: Simon (-218), Oliveira (+180)

This has the potential to be a barnburner, which is true of a lot of Oliveira’s fights. “Lok Dog” has been on the verge of a UFC callup for a while, and despite having nearly a decade of professional experience under his belt, the Brazilian has the game of a much younger man. Large and rangy for the bantamweight division, Oliveira mostly looks to stalk forward and hunt for the knockout. Given that there isn’t much defense built into that approach, Oliveira can often eat as much offense as he dishes out, but when things finally click, the results can be spectacular. He had a fairly pedestrian UFC debut against Benardo Sopai, until he was able to pour things on late and end the fight with a particularly brutal flying knee. That highlight-reel knockout was apparently enough for the UFC to decide to throw Oliveira right into the deep end and see if he can become an immediate contender, as Simon is just two fights removed from a five-fight winning streak and a main event spot. Simon came to the UFC in 2018 with a similarly reckless style built entirely around offense, but after a rough 2019 that included a 46-second knockout loss to Urijah Faber , he learned to fight behind a more calculated style. Simon’s combination of well-roundedness, athleticism and durability have seen him turn minor advantages into dominant victories, but his last two fights—losses to Yadong Song and Mario Bautista —have seen that work in the inverse. Both opponents were able to neutralize Simon’s wrestling and sting him on the feet, leaving him unable to find a point to pry the fight open. If nothing else, Simon’s wrestling and grappling should be a clear safety valve against Oliveira’s wide-open defense, but the American should also be able to take the tough route and win a shot-for-shot war of attrition on the feet, if needed. The pick is Simon via third-round submission.

Jump To »
Pyfer vs. Barriault
Fili vs. Swanson
Jourdain vs. Silva
Talbott vs. Ghemmouri
Robertson vs. Waterson-Gomez
Buday vs. Arlovski
Tsuruya vs. Hernandez
Simon vs. Oliveira