UFC 303: Brian Ortega vs. Diego Lopes odds, picks and predictions

In a 3-round lightweight bout on the main card, Brian Ortega and Diego Lopes meet Saturday at UFC 303 at T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the UFC 303: Ortega vs. Lopes odds, and make our expert picks and predictions.

The early prelims begin at 6 p.m. ET, and can be viewed on ESPN/ESPN+. The prelims begin 8 p.m. ET, also on ESPN/ESPN+, while the main card starts at 10 p.m. ET on Pay-Per-View.

Records: Ortega (16-3-0) | Lopes (24-6-0)

Ortega avenged a 1st-round KO/TKO to Yair Rodriguez in a fight night main event in July 2022, posting a 3rd-round submission win in late February. It was just Ortega’s 2nd win in the past 5 events, which included title fight losses to Max Holloway and Alexander Volkanovski.

Lopes has 3 straight victories, all by stoppage, including a pair of 1st-round KO/TKO wins against Pat Sabatini and Sodiq Yusuff in his past 2 bouts. The win streak also includes a Round 1 win via submission against Gavin Tucker in Aug. 2023.

Lopes enters this bout with a 3.5-inch reach advantage, and he is also 3 inches taller and 4 years younger than Ortega.

The switch-stance fighter Ortega holds a 4.07-to-3.22 significant strikes landed per minute advantage, although Lopes is far more accurate on those strikes at 62.25% to just 40.39% for Ortega.

Ortega is good in the takedown game, posting a 1.17 average and 27.27% takedown accuracy percentage, but Lopes has a dominant 5.03 submission average.

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UFC 303: Ortega vs. Lopes odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 1:20 p.m. ET.

• Fight result (2-way line): Ortega +125 (bet $100 to win $125) | Lopes -150 (bet $150 to win $100)
• Over/Under: 2.5 rounds (Over +110 | Under -145)
• Will the fight go the distance? (Yes +140 | No -190)

UFC 303: Ortega vs. Lopes picks and predictions

Fight result (2-way line or moneyline)

LOPES (-150) is worth a look straight up on the 2-way line, if you just want to declare a winner, and you don’t care how he gets his hand raised.

Ortega (+125) has struggled recently, losing 3 times in the past 5 outings. He just isn’t that accurate with his significant strikes, and Lopes figures to use his tremendous reach advantage to pull Ortega in and out at his discretion, choosing the right time to strike.

If you’re like to go with a method of victory, LOPES BY KO/TKO, DQ OR SUBMISSION (+125) on the 5-way line for plus-money is certainly a nice value.

Over/Under (O/U)

UNDER 2.5 ROUNDS (-145) is a little on the pricey side, but it’s worth a roll of the dice.

When Lopes gets a finish, which is what we’re expecting, he doesn’t fool around. Since a unanimous-decision loss to Movsar Evloev at UFC 288 in his company debut, Lopes has won 3 straight fights via Round 1 finishes.

NO (-190): WILL FIGHT GO THE DISTANCE? is a little too expensive for my liking, costing you nearly 2 times your potential return. However, if you were to fold this into a multi-leg parlay, or an SGP, it would be OK.

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