Caribbean, Gulf of Mexico could soon stir up new tropical trouble

While many eyes have been watching Debby in the eastern United States, a tropical wave chugging westward over the Caribbean could find a way to develop and impact Texas or Louisiana this weekend.

AccuWeather meteorologists have been tracking a tropical wave of low pressure since early last week. Now that the feature has entered the Caribbean Sea, the chance of development is increasing. The area from the western Caribbean to the western Gulf of Mexico could spawn the next tropical storm.

"We do not see any major hurdles in the way of this tropical wave in the coming days," AccuWeather Lead Hurricane Expert Alex DaSilva said, adding, "Wind shear is generally low, the atmosphere is moist and water temperatures are plenty warm to foster development later this week to this weekend."

Wind shear refers to the disruptive breezes that change direction or blow strongly in one direction, which can hinder tropical development or cause an established tropical system to lose wind intensity. The critical threshold for water temperatures is about 78 F. Water temperatures are well into the 80s in the path of the storm, and the depth of that warm water is significant. This means as a storm begins to churn surface water through wave action, the waters are unlikely to cool significantly.

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There is a range in the potential track of the tropical feature.

One path may take the feature straight into part of Central America or southern Mexico, where land interaction may put a stop to any development.

Another path would take it more to the northwest, where it would enter the southwestern or central Gulf of Mexico after interacting with Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula.

For this reason, areas from Nicaragua and Guatemala to Belize, Mexico, Texas and Louisiana should monitor the feature's progress.

AccuWeather currently has a medium risk of tropical development for the feature in the Caribbean.

Even if it fails to evolve into a tropical depression or tropical storm, it will spread drenching showers and gusty thunderstorms westward to parts of Central America and southeastern Mexico before the end of the week. Enough rain may fall to lead to urban flooding as well as flash flooding of small streams in the area. In hilly areas, the risk of mudslides will increase. Fishing and boating interests should monitor the feature as well.

Showers and thunderstorms are likely to increase over the western and central Gulf of Mexico from Friday to Saturday. If a full-fledged tropical storm develops in this area, landfall may occur later in the weekend to early next week.

Three of the four named tropical systems so far this season have tracked through or developed near the western Gulf of Mexico: Alberto, Beryl and Chris. Beryl was a record-setting storm for the area it affected and how strong it became so early in the season. Debby, which made landfall in northern Florida, was the first named storm so far to avoid the region.

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