Potential tropical cyclone heading for Leeward Islands & Puerto Rico but no risk to US East Coast

We are in the weather version of cruise control this week in Eastern Pennsylvania to Southern New England. The flow in the upper air is northwest which brings drier air masses southeast from Canada. This argues for reasonable temperatures and reasonable humidity levels all week long. The only issue is we have upper troughs moving along in the northwest flow and that will bring through some clouds from time to time. In general these troughs could produce some scattered showers or the odd thunderstorms but most if not all of them will be well to the north and west of the coast. At worst today it will be partly sunny and we will throw in the chance for a brief shower or storm but the chances are very low and it one happens it will be isolated in nature. Most highs today will be in a range of 78 to near 84.

Photo byNational Weather Service

The air behind the upper trough is slightly cooler so skies will clear tonight with lows in the upper 50s inland and low to mid 60s coast and warmer urban locations. Tuesday will be another day of partly to mostly sunny skies. Temperatures could be just a touch lower with highs in the upper 70s and lower 80s.

Photo byNational Weather Service

Another upper trough will move through on Wednesday so we could see temperatures a little higher but still in the context of reasonable and the humidity will still remain in check with dew points mostly in the mid to upper 50s. Sunny skies are forecast and Wednesday highs will be in the low to middle 80s.

Photo byNational Weather Service

We will continue to move along for the rest of the week. Thursday and Friday we will see sunshine both days with temperatures mostly in a range of 80 to 85 with dew points in the mid to upper 50s. However this is going to change over the weekend. The northwest flow goes southwest and the surface turns southerly ahead of an upper trough and cold front for the weekend.

Photo byTropical Tidbits

Right now based on timing, it seems that we could see some showers or thunderstorms approach late in the day Saturday or Saturday night and Sunday will be a day of clouds, showers and thunderstorms as the front slows down as it approaches the coast. There probably will be a tropical storm or hurricane off the East Coast as the GFS picks up on Potential Tropical Cyclone 5 and strengthens it later this week.

Photo byNational Hurricane Center

All of the hurricane track models take this potential tropical cyclone over the Leeward Islands and the turning it to the right, a close pass for Puerto Rico but more of direct pass over the Virgin Islands and then northward. The track may come close to Bermuda down the road. This is in response to the deep trough developing along the East Coast and we don't see this system being an issue for the Northeast and Middle Atlantic states.